Is 1 Heroic Token really better than 3 Elite Tokens?

broll

There are several places in the placement rankings were there is a jump from 3 ETs to 1 HT for higher rank. Some examples from SCL 7:

Personal placement of sub
401-500 3 ET | 1250 ISO
301-400 1 HT | 1250 ISO

Alliance placement of sub
101-250 3 ET | 1250 ISO
51-100 1 HT | 1750 ISO

I would argue that 3 ET is a better prize than one 1 HT.
Best case scenarios:
3 ET = 3 3* covers
1 HT = 1 4* cover

Worst case scenarios:
3 ET = 3 2* covers
1 HT = 1 2* cover

This shows even more clearly if we apply a point value to each cover and apply their actual drop percentages to show an opportunity value. Let's assume the value of each tier raises in value exponentially.

2* - 5 points
3* - 25 points
4* - 125 points

Let's assume drop rates for ET are 75% 2* 25% 3* & HT are 70% 2* 25% 3* 5% 4*.

Best case scenarios:
ET = 18.75 points
HT = 6.25 points

Worst case scenarios:
ET = 11.25 points
HT = 3.5 points

Am I the only one that thinks that 1 HT is overall less valuable than 3 ETs and that it's kind of insulting for a higher level to get that prize vs the other.

Potential fixes:
Change the 1 HT prizes to:
3 HT
or
1 HT + 3 ET
or
1 HT + 2 ET

mpqr7

If you win a 4* from that token, you won't feel that way.

broll

mpqr7 wrote:

If you win a 4* from that token, you won't feel that way.

So you're answer is there's a 5% chance it's better or putting it another way, 1 out of 20 times it will be better. Man I feel better about it....

Punisher5784

I feel the same way. Sure we have a SMALL chance to pull a 4* but a majority of the time the HT will yield a 2*.. 1 champ level vs 3 champ levels is not better. Therefore we should win 1 HT and 2 ET.

Magic

I agree - I take 3 Elite over 1 Heroic any day. I am actually semi-angry at my alliance when they make a push in PvE to top100 and instead of 3 Elite tokens I wake up to one Heroic for the sub. With the odds you mentioned 70% of time you get a short end of the stick (in reality probably 95% of time). I prefer to add a champion level to my 2 and 3* (could be HP, could be CP or ISO) then getting a 4*. Chances are - I will have to sell it in 2 weeks if it's not on my list of champions.

The solution suggested above is perfect - when you are upgrading from Elite to heroic just upgrade one and keep the rest - 1Heroic and 2 elite seems ideal as a reward.

Tl;dr - 3 elite tokens for the win.

Dormammu

Though elite tokens were only supposed to be an upgrade from standard tokens, I like them better than heroic tokens as well. They drop 3-stars way more often then heroics (at least in my experience) which is valuable to me in obtaining champ levels. The paltry chance at a 4-star in heroics doesn't entice me and in no way is building my 4-star roster dependent on heroic tokens.

Calnexin

I'll take 3 elites over 1 heroic. While there's no possibility of a 4*, it's guaranteed build on champ/farm. 3 champ/farm levels vs 5% of one 4* cover.

I can see where someone would prefer the heroics - if they're really gunning to flesh out their 4* roster. I think we can all concur that the ultimate barrier to advancement is Iso, though, in which case the Elites are more valuable.

As a 1:1, it's clearly heroics. 2:1... math?

firethorne

Dormammu wrote:

Though elite tokens were only supposed to be an upgrade from standard tokens, I like them better than heroic tokens as well. They drop 3-stars way more often then heroics

No, it just seems that way. Insensitivity to sample size and frequency illusion is a common problem in statistical analysis, and perhaps what the devs are intentionally using to their advantage. The tokens aren't statistically better. You're just opening more of them, so it works out in the end that you get more 3-stars. But, had you opened as many heroics, you would have gotten just as many 3-stars.


Ultimately, what they should do is revamp the tokens and have each be a 85%/15%. Standards giving 85% 1*, 15% 2*, elites giving 2* and 3*, heroics giving 3* and 4*, and legendary giving 4* and 5*.

firethorne

Well, whatever you want to set the percentages at is fine. I'd ultimately just like them to be more consistent. The most important part is something filling the guaranteed 3*, chance at 4* role. I'd rather have one 100% chance at a 3* than three 25% shots.

They should have made heroics the guaranteed 3* that when elites were introduced. But, they didn't.

Dormammu

firethorne wrote:

The tokens aren't statistically better.

Does anyone know the statistical odds of elites and heroics other than the developers? I've never actually seen the numbers, so you could very well be right.

I'm one of those who hoards for a season and then opens a bunch of tokens at once, tracking what I open. Since the inception of elite tokens, my own history shows that I open 3-stars about 15% more often from an elite than a heroic. I will admit that percentage could easily be skewed by the fact that I have 3x as many elites vs. heroics every season, but I have accounted for that in my math.

Jaedenkaal

aesthetocyst wrote:

firethorne wrote:

Ultimately, what they should do is revamp the tokens and have each be a 85%/15%. Standards giving 85% 1*, 15% 2*, elites giving 2* and 3*, heroics giving 3* and 4*, and legendary giving 4* and 5*.

So you want them to make the odds of pulling 3*s from elites and heroics worse??? Why?

And sometimes I get these crazy streaks of pulling 3*s from standards. I'd like to keep those, thanks

I think he means that a heroic token should be 85% 3* and 15% 4*

madok

aesthetocyst wrote:

If that isn't changed, then the display will eventually be a bunch of 0s, unless they start fudging by rounding everything up, never down (e.g., 0.01 rounds to 0.1, rather than 0.0).

So how long until getting a specific 5* will be displayed as 0% in Classics?

Dormammu

aesthetocyst wrote:

Ummmm....yeah, they are posted in game.

Shows you how much I'm paying attention.

firethorne

Jaedenkaal wrote:

aesthetocyst wrote:

firethorne wrote:

Ultimately, what they should do is revamp the tokens and have each be a 85%/15%. Standards giving 85% 1*, 15% 2*, elites giving 2* and 3*, heroics giving 3* and 4*, and legendary giving 4* and 5*.

So you want them to make the odds of pulling 3*s from elites and heroics worse??? Why?

And sometimes I get these crazy streaks of pulling 3*s from standards. I'd like to keep those, thanks

I think he means that a heroic token should be 85% 3* and 15% 4*

I did. Sorry if that was unclear.

roderic1

I think there is something to be said for the frequency of opening each type of token affecting the perception of what they drop. Before this thread, I think I was convinced the Elites dropped 3's more often. But I looked over my records and found this:

Since 9/1/16:

247 Heroic token 1-packs:
2-stars: 173
3-stars: 63 (25.51%)
4-stars: 11

423 Elite tokens:
2-stars: 309
3-stars: 114 (26.95%)

Those percentages aren't insanely different. But I pulled nearly double the number of 3-stars via Elite tokens as Heroics during that time. The sheer quantity makes a difference in perception. Of course, this is still a small sample size.

halirin

Am I the only one who noticed the analysis after the probabilities is wrong? I saw a bunch of replies and had big hopes, but....

TLCstormz

The elite tokens are only better for people who do not need or are not at the four-star level yet.

No other explanation makes a lick of sense........

Jack0fAllGames

TLCstormz wrote:

The elite tokens are only better for people who do not need or are not at the four-star level yet.

No other explanation makes a lick of sense........

Or players who value champ levels over minuscule chances at 4*

Omega Red

Just extrapolate into this hypothetical: What would you prefer, three tokens that gave you three or four stars or one token that gave you three stars or better, with a chance of pulling a five star?

broll

halirin wrote:

Am I the only one who noticed the analysis after the probabilities is wrong? I saw a bunch of replies and had big hopes, but....

It would be more helpful if you explained how they were incorrect and provide correct ones...

I wouldn't be surprised if they were wrong. Never taken a stats class, but generally good at math so I kinda guessed. I'd love to see someone correct any issues in my ghetto stats.

Jack0fAllGames

Omega Red wrote:

Just extrapolate into this hypothetical: What would you prefer, three tokens that gave you three or four stars or one token that gave you three stars or better, with a chance of pulling a five star?

Anything for more chances at 5*

Unless the percentage was really bad and/or 4* percentage in other tokens was really high.