Standard Token odds

DAC169

I don't think we ever got official word on Standard Token odds, did we? If so, I missed it. How about we try to figure them out here?

I recently used all 504 that I had. Here's what I pulled:
410
80
14

Now, I know this by itself isn't truly indicative of the odds. After all, I had about 5 of those in the first 100 pulls, and had a streak of 140-ish without any . But this puts the odds at roughly 82% , 16% , & 3% .

If anyone wants to help, please do so. Mention how many tokens you used and how many of each rarity that you got. For higher accuracy, please only do large numbers of pulls, like 100+, because small samples really skew the odds. I'll try to keep this updated.

Out of 504 Standard Token pulls wrote:

• - 410 for 81.35% odds
• - 80 for 15.87% odds
• - 14 for 2.777..% odds

deadtaco

I've only ever looked at the % at the top of my spreadsheet and never totaled how many of each. Now I am depressed.

Out of 938 Standard Token pulls wrote:

• - 781 for 83.26% odds
• - 141 for 15.03% odds
• - 16 for 1.71% odds

edit : Should note this is not from one giant pull, but from all pulls since I started tracking a while back. I usually open <=50 at a time as part of the 50 token club thread.

revskip

Since I started tracking them I've pulled 2,551 standards.

84.48% 1*
12.94 % 2*
2.59% 3*

STOPTHIS

This is going back for a number of seasons. I've only kept track by seasons since 19, but I've been keeping track of pulls longer.

Total pulls - 5201
- 4327/83.19%
- 759/14.59%
- 115/2.21%

Sm0keyJ0e

There has never been official word but I'm pretty sure it's:
1* 85%
2* 12.5%
3* 2.5*

I pull in groups of hundred for nearly a year now. All of your stats are backing this up as well.

jredd

i don't track, but maybe i should. at least from the eye and memory test the % are:

99.5%
0.4%
0.1%

opening standards has gotten to be just about the most boring and pointless thing in the game. just gimme 100 iso instead and save me the time.

broll

My last large standard pull:

Total Tokens - 298
- 86% (257)
- 12% (35)
- 2% (6)

fnedude

So I've kept track since I started, 1080days now....

5531 pulls
1*=84.2
2*=13.5
3*=2.5

I've seen other report you can draw a 4*, but I've never seen it in 5K pulls, so I think it's just an urban legend started by D3....

iron-n-wine

@fnedude - wow thats an impressive amount of tracking - and *very* consistent with the other responses

ZootSax

fnedude wrote:

So I've kept track since I started, 1080days now....

5531 pulls
1*=84.2
2*=13.5
3*=2.5

I've seen other report you can draw a 4*, but I've never seen it in 5K pulls, so I think it's just an urban legend started by D3....

After ~12,000 pulls (prior to DDQ and championing characters, I had a hard time getting 3*'s, much less 4*'s, and therefore had very little else to spend iso on; I wasted HUGE quantities on standard tokens)
1*: 84.0%
2*: 13.7%
3*: 2.3%
4*: 0%

The user-collected data thread did have people getting 4*'s and even HP, but I believe that was from a long time ago in the game. Ever since Legendary Tokens were added, the standard token text explicitly states that only 1*, 2* & 3*'s are available, but who knows how long that's been the case, as the standard token is the only one without published probabilities...

SummerGlau

my odds roughly come out similar to Heroics just everything one star less

fnedude

my odds roughly come out similar to Heroics just everything one star less

My Taco results are the same: (roughly)
4*: 2%
3*: 13%
2*: 85%

So it seems 1*, Heroics (I won't dispute that result, but I think mines a little better), and Taco's have the same probabilities...

DaveR4470

4*s were available in standard tokens before the Great Token Realignment, but at incredibly slim odds. Still, I pulled two 4*s (Thor and Wolvie) from standards back in the day....

Good times. Good times.

(Wait... no they weren't.....)

Aevard

I can confirm you can receive 4* from standards; I recently (two weeks or so ago) pulled a Professor X from one.

herm1978

Aevard wrote:

I can confirm you can receive 4* from standards; I recently (two weeks or so ago) pulled a Professor X from one.

I'm sorry but I find that hard to Believe. Unless the chance is something like 0.001%, which I find equally unbelievable...

I dont know what to think

DeNappa

Just to add my own data point; since I've started tracking, I pulled 2269 standard tokens:

1 star	1894	83,47%
2 star	 316	13,93%
3 star  	59	 2,60%

Quebbster

herm1978 wrote:

Aevard wrote:

I can confirm you can receive 4* from standards; I recently (two weeks or so ago) pulled a Professor X from one.

I'm sorry but I find that hard to Believe. Unless the chance is something like 0.001%, which I find equally unbelievable...

I dont know what to think

According to IceIX Before he quit (so a while ago ), it is possible to get fourstars from standard tokens, but the chance is so intefismally low that they don't bother listing it on the token page.

Mr_Sinister

Recently pulled 600k in standards to gauge the odds. It was around 13% for 2*, 2% for 3*.

Crnch73

fnedude wrote:

my odds roughly come out similar to Heroics just everything one star less

My Taco results are the same: (roughly)
4*: 2%
3*: 13%
2*: 85%

So it seems 1*, Heroics (I won't dispute that result, but I think mines a little better), and Taco's have the same probabilities...

I have been separating tacos and any vaults from any other data. Since a vault has a finite number of items in it, every item is (supposedly) at the same odds of 1/(max number of items in vault). They skew these odds by putting more 2* rewards than 3 and 4 stars. But also, the more you pull, the fewer rewards remaining, thus higher the odds are that you will get a high reward (a choose-then-choose probability). The same can not be said for non-vaults (more of a choose-replace-choose probability)... non vault is more like buckshot. You are likely to hit a target eventually with enough attempts, but nothing is guaranteed.

for example, in tacos, if you spend 300 tokens you are guaranteed all 3 of the 4* rewards. You can spend 300 heroics, and theoretically get zero 4* rewards (unlikely, but it sure feels like this happens doesn't it?)

BigRussian

Back in the day, I pulled a 4* Nick Fury from a standard token. It was a few months after 4Thor was released.

GrimSkald

I can't say when I started tracking, but I have 7 Spider Man (Bag-Man) draws in there, so it's been a while. Here are my numbers, they aren't all that different form everyone else's:

Standard Tokens Total --- 6752

Stars - Total - % of Total
*

---

5603 --- 83.0%
** ---- 997 ---- 14.8%
*** --- 148 ---- 2.2%
**** -- 0

---

0.0%

If there is a chance for a 4* (and I believe there is,) it's pretty darn low, probably less than .1% (one in a thousand.) At that low chance, one can easily go many thousand before pulling one. They were right to remove it from the listing, if this is the case.