Forum thread

aesthetocyst
aesthetocyst Posts: 538 Critical Contributor
edited May 2018 in MPQ General Discussion
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    • Pylgrim
      Pylgrim Posts: 2,328 Chairperson of the Boards
      A question (may be dumb, statistics have always been something I have a bit of trouble wrapping my head around): I see that currently, if I want to pull any given 5* at a confidence level of 80%, I'll need around 260 Classic pulls. However, doesn't this mean than hoarding is worse than pulling the tokens as they come? Since each pull is a completely new probablity, independent of previous pulls, opening 260 tokens at once 6 months from now shouldn't give any better results than opening that same number throughout those 6 months. In fact, since 5*s will keep being released, if I wait 6 months to open my tokens, we can expect around 6 new 5*s added to the Classics, meaning that those 260 tokens will not even be good enough for a 66% confidence any more. At least if I start opening now, I'll have a few pulls under current conditions and after each release those conditions will be better than the ones under the following release.
    • Bowgentle
      Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
      Pylgrim wrote:
      A question (may be dumb, statistics have always been something I have a bit of trouble wrapping my head around): I see that currently, if I want to pull any given 5* at a confidence level of 80%, I'll need around 260 Classic pulls. However, doesn't this mean than hoarding is worse than pulling the tokens as they come? Since each pull is a completely new probablity, independent of previous pulls, opening 260 tokens at once 6 months from now shouldn't give any better results than opening that same number throughout those 6 months. In fact, since 5*s will keep being released, if I wait 6 months to open my tokens, we can expect around 6 new 5*s added to the Classics, meaning that those 260 tokens will not even be good enough for a 66% confidence any more. At least if I start opening now, I'll have a few pulls under current conditions and after each release those conditions will be better than the ones under the following release.
      You don't have to do 260 pulls at once - but you do need to pull them before the next 5 goes into classics.

      After which you have another X pulls before the next one goes in, etc.
    • Polares
      Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
      So, this is how bad luck looks like icon_razz.gif

      To be almost certain that I will pull a BBolt from Latests at 15% I might need to open 275 tokens !!!! OMG! At 80% confidence it goes to 'just' 100 !!!

      Man, in a system like this where just RNG affects who you pull champing any particular 5 is really a lottery. Luck is too damned important factor, someone will pull 5 BBolts with 5 pulls and someone else will need 100 pulls. This is crazy. This MUST be fixed.

      And the numbers for classic are just ABSURD, anybody waiting to pull a particular char from classics might wait all his life! If you don't mind who will you pull, open classics, but if that is not the case really not worth it. Don't open classics waiting for a particular char.
    • HaywireII
      HaywireII Posts: 568 Critical Contributor
      Only 500ish classic legends to go to get to 99% confidence for my first OML yellow cover. Gonna go pour myself another drink now.
    • smkspy
      smkspy Posts: 2,024 Chairperson of the Boards
      Really makes me regret selling the 5 or 6 characters before the sort of scaling fix for 5 stars. And one of those was an OML yellow, though it was before he took over the game.

      But that was the trade off, I rapidly progressed my 4 stars at the expense of having to sell off 5 stars that I pulled at the time.
    • dr tinykittylove
      dr tinykittylove Posts: 1,459 Chairperson of the Boards
      What a beautifully wrought representation of my despair... icon_lol.gif pretty charts.
    • Dekliko1978
      Dekliko1978 Posts: 93
      Wonderful work once again! Perfect data and charts.

      The unfortunate thing is that it’s a perfect visualization of my frustration with the 5* distribution, the lines are going through the roof quite quickly icon_evil.gif
      It was at acceptable levels when there were only 3x 5*, but after that it quickly became infuriating.
    • Bowgentle
      Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
      Dekliko1978 wrote:
      Wonderful work once again! Perfect data and charts.

      The unfortunate thing is that it’s a perfect visualization of my frustration with the 5* distribution, the lines are going through the roof quite quickly icon_evil.gif
      It was at acceptable levels when there were only 3x 5*, but after that it quickly became infuriating.
      Do what I did, abandon classics and draw latest with tokens and CP.

      I'll never finish my Phoenix, but have a champed Bolt now (or I will have on Wednesday when my final dance with CS is over. Had to switch 4 covers FFS).
    • Dekliko1978
      Dekliko1978 Posts: 93
      Bowgentle wrote:
      Dekliko1978 wrote:
      Wonderful work once again! Perfect data and charts.

      The unfortunate thing is that it’s a perfect visualization of my frustration with the 5* distribution, the lines are going through the roof quite quickly icon_evil.gif
      It was at acceptable levels when there were only 3x 5*, but after that it quickly became infuriating.
      Do what I did, abandon classics and draw latest with tokens and CP.

      I'll never finish my Phoenix, but have a champed Bolt now (or I will have on Wednesday when my final dance with CS is over. Had to switch 4 covers FFS).

      My 5/5/2 BSS with 5 duplicate covers and counting weeps, but I think you are correct. I should hoard around 150 LT and some CP and open them when a new 5* will be added. Then at least I'll have a decent change of not wasting covers.
      But to be honest I'd rather have 2x lvl 480 5* than 6x lvl 450 5* and any chances of getting well above 450 are slim to none nowadays. Ah well..
    • wymtime
      wymtime Posts: 3,758 Chairperson of the Boards
      I said this in another thread that there should be a 5* token now. It unlocks at CL8-9 to purchase with 120 CP. Also in LT instead of having a 15% chance at a 5* you get a 15% chance at a 5* token. You can make LT cost 20cp and just have 1 LT instead of 2. One 5* for the cost of 5 4*. By locking the token from direct purchase until you get to a certain shield rank will keep people from whaling 5* from 2* land, but they can still get them from LT.
      I know I personally sell a lot of useless 4* since I run out of ISO and I would prefer to just spend 120ona random 5* that I can probably use.
    • HaywireII
      HaywireII Posts: 568 Critical Contributor
      I have 28 covers spread across every 5* character except Black Bolt and Dr Strange and they are all useless to me. I think if they were just spread across OML, SS and Phoenix I'd be happier.
    • Omega Red
      Omega Red Posts: 366 Mover and Shaker
      I think they'll eventually vault some characters like they did two years ago with three star toons. Thing is, as you progress in the game you get more leg tokens, more CP, more chances overall to grab a five star. Every character release the pool gets diluted more, but also more legs and CP are given away.

      Clearly, the lesson here is: Don't open your token hoard looking for a specific cover. Open it when you can use most of the covers you get to add champion levels.
    • El Satanno
      El Satanno Posts: 1,005 Chairperson of the Boards
      That is the most beautiful image of soul-crushing despair I've ever seen. Like looking into the face of Cthulhu as he rises from R'lyeh.
    • carrion_pigeons
      carrion_pigeons Posts: 942 Critical Contributor
      This topic should be stickied and linked to whenever someone complains about not getting the statistical average of something.
    • Hendross
      Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
      Whilst I don't disagree this is a grim picture of despair, there is a silver lining that is not completely apparent.
      If you're going to pull 700 classics to finish one of the old timers with metaphysical certitude, you're not only certain to get what you need but also another 105 5-star covers, that's an average of 15 across the remaining 7. So you don't only finish 1, you've more than likely finished most of them (for a mere 14,000 CP or $200k not including buy clubs)
    • GuntherBlobel
      GuntherBlobel Posts: 987 Critical Contributor
      Hendross wrote:
      Whilst I don't disagree this is a grim picture of despair, there is a silver lining that is not completely apparent.
      If you're going to pull 700 classics to finish one of the old timers with metaphysical certitude, you're not only certain to get what you need but also another 105 5-star covers, that's an average of 15 across the remaining 7. So you don't only finish 1, you've more than likely finished most of them (for a mere 14,000 CP or $200k not including buy clubs)
      Along those lines, how diluted does the 5* classic pool need to be for 720 CP to be a good deal?

      I think the 4* pool is already diluted enough to say that 120 CP is a wise choice, particularly once a power or two is fully covered for your new favorite character. Six random 4* covers is just a tiny drop in the bucket considering that there are 40 characters that demand 13 covers each.
    • OneLastGambit
      OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
      Having reached the point where CP and tokens are more likely to give me a dupe for a character who is not level maxed I decided to stop opening them last season.

      Before I knew it I had 12 LT and well over 600 cp (some I won and some from our resident whale)... I'm a huge Bucky fan and my Bucky was sitting there needing 2 more covers to max... So I spent cp on maxing him (note: I have little interest in joining 5* tier despite having usable surfer, oml, Phoenix and goblin) and I felt great!

      I then conducted an experiment on myself and spent the remaining cp on tokens, I got some that I needed (rulk 5strange) but mostly nothing but dupes and I felt awful.

      Now I'm just saving up cp and I'll spend it on covers instead. I feel better and have more control over progression. You might argue it's very slow progression and I might retort with 'its still faster than rng progression'.

      I'm lucky enough I have all colours for everyone except 5cap, 5strange and bolt so I am able to progress this way.

      Edit: Aes I dunno if you intentionally paraphrased the awesome bad translation of late 80s shoot em up zero wing but it made me laugh anyway
    • Dekliko1978
      Dekliko1978 Posts: 93
      aesthetocyst wrote:
      Dekliko1978 wrote:
      Wonderful work once again! Perfect data and charts.

      The unfortunate thing is that it’s a perfect visualization of my frustration with the 5* distribution, the lines are going through the roof quite quickly icon_evil.gif
      It was at acceptable levels when there were only 3x 5*, but after that it quickly became infuriating.

      "Acceptable"? I think it's only the comparison to the current (and implied future) diluted odds that makes the offers of the past "acceptable" icon_lol.gif

      How quickly we get used to being treated badly is astonishing, probably my addiction or Stockholm syndrome kicking in.
    • Polares
      Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
      aesthetocyst wrote:

      If it's the final piece of the current hotness that a player is obsessed with, and that piece is only available in the ever-diluting classic tokens, then 720cp is a steal.

      Ironically, many players hilariously overvalue CP, to the point of thinking this can't be true, CP is too precious to use it this way .... leading them to fritter it away on endless pulls, and almost certainly burning far more than 720cp, chasing that golden ticket.

      Anecdotes from those lucky jerks that get just the cover they needs in 1 or 2 pulls after they starting needing it don't help much either icon_lol.gif

      And heck yes, 120cp to finish a good 4* and get them champed, particularly to save covers from your queue, is also a heckuva deal.

      In the end, it all depends on where you are and what you want to do next. If you just care about maxing one particular char in classics, then 720 is probably a good idea (even though the save 720, and then every new 20CPs you get, you use it right away for a season or so before you actually spend the 720 I think is the best option). On the other hand, If you just want to build 3-5 5s before you level them, 36 pulls are a lot, nad it might be better just to try your luck.

      The worst cases are when you have 2/5/5 chars. I was very lucky to max my PH when she was 5/2/5 and I just had to waste one cover (of course, that was when there were just 4 or 5 5s in classic). In those cases it might be really a good idea to use the 720 CPs
    • BassMuffinFIve
      BassMuffinFIve Posts: 231
      This is just another way the game punishes new players. Oh, you weren't around when there were only 3 5* stars? Sucks for you because now you will never, ever ever have a usable one, except for maybe 3 years down the road when you stockpiled hundreds of classic tokens and CP.

      GG.

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