Am I just unlucky?

jetnoctis

So I've only got 3 different SOI mythics. Yet with all the latest events and joining a good coalition, I've managed to get three damn goldnight castigators in a row. There are 17 SOI mythics available atm, and the chances of drawing the same card three times should be 1/17 x 1/17 x 1/17 = 0.0002% if I can math. That's not even 1%! Are coalition/event rewards more likely to give you dupes or am I just unlucky?

tm00

The first mythic is meaningless,you'd have made the thread no matter what mythic you'd have got assuming you got it three times in a row so 1*1/17*1/17 would be the more logical, or 3/17*1/17 if the relevant thing was getting a dupe twice.
Still low and since receiving multiple copies of the same mythic from the coalition rewards thrice in a row has been reported multiple times maybe the dews should check.

1/17*1/17 should be low enough to make this event happening more than once in a pool of max 200 player maybe a little suspect. Can someone find the chances of it happening? I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher than 5% but maybe it is lower.

Edit 15% chances of happening with 200 players. 2.8% with 160, it seems possible.

Given n= number of players and p=1/17^2
I used 1-((1-p)^n)+(n*p*((1-p)^(n-1))) this is correct, right?

Rogan_Josh

tm00 wrote:

The first mythic is meaningless,you'd have made the thread no matter what mythic you'd have got assuming you got it three times in a row so 1*1/17*1/17 would be the more logical, or 3/17*1/17 if the relevant thing was getting a dupe twice.
Still low and since receiving multiple copies of the same mythic from the coalition rewards thrice in a row has been reported multiple times maybe the dews should check.

1/17*1/17 should be low enough to make this event happening more than once in a pool of max 200 player maybe a little suspect. Can someone find the chances of it happening? I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher than 5% but maybe it is lower.

Edit 15% chances of happening with 200 players. 2.8% with 160, it seems possible.

Given n= number of players and p=1/17^2
I used 1-((1-p)^n)+(n*p*((1-p)^(n-1))) this is correct, right?

Looks legit.

Our real concern is the total population of people playing this game and the rate of duplicates vs the number of mythics pulled. Basically we need more complete data to prove anything.

I've been concerned about this for a fair few months, not just the mythics but all the rares and uncommons as well seem to pull from one of three limited pools each time I open a multipack. These pools overlap somewhat.

this is all complete speculation drawn from personal observation, not real data though.

jimilinho_

jetnoctis wrote:

So I've only got 3 different SOI mythics. Yet with all the latest events and joining a good coalition, I've managed to get three damn goldnight castigators in a row. There are 17 SOI mythics available atm, and the chances of drawing the same card three times should be 1/17 x 1/17 x 1/17 = 0.0002% if I can math. That's not even 1%! Are coalition/event rewards more likely to give you dupes or am I just unlucky?

There is definitely a problem with this but it does appear to resolve itself, I know 4 people in my coalition (myself and 3 others) who all received the same mythic 3 times in a row from coalition rewards. I actually had beyond the behold 4 times in a row. It has since changed to appear random, but certainly there is an issue.

Despite other people telling you its 'random variance' or 'purely random' I know it's not.

Good news is everyone impacted with this seemed to start receiving different rewards after the 3rd or 4th dupe so in theory you should start getting different cards soon.

jetnoctis

Thanks, it's good to know it's not just me! Now time to pray to RNGesus for the next event.

jimilinho_

jetnoctis wrote:

Thanks, it's good to know it's not just me! Now time to pray to RNGesus for the next event.

To give you an idea these are the mythic rewards I've received in the order I received them.

Beyond the Behold (Already had this card so felt bit unlucky)
Beyond the Behold ( 2 in a row, damn that's annoying)
Beyond the Behold ( Errr.. seriously.. This doesn't feel random!)
Beyond the Behold ( Yeah I wanted to throw my phone at the wall at this point!! )
Geier Reach Bandit
Goldnight Castigator
Rattlechains
Relentless Dead

So it did change for me eventually

Rootbreaker

tm00 wrote:

The first mythic is meaningless,you'd have made the thread no matter what mythic you'd have got assuming you got it three times in a row so 1*1/17*1/17 would be the more logical, or 3/17*1/17 if the relevant thing was getting a dupe twice.
Still low and since receiving multiple copies of the same mythic from the coalition rewards thrice in a row has been reported multiple times maybe the dews should check.

1/17*1/17 should be low enough to make this event happening more than once in a pool of max 200 player maybe a little suspect. Can someone find the chances of it happening? I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher than 5% but maybe it is lower.

Edit 15% chances of happening with 200 players. 2.8% with 160, it seems possible.

Given n= number of players and p=1/17^2
I used 1-((1-p)^n)+(n*p*((1-p)^(n-1))) this is correct, right?

Remember, this is only true if these are the only events you're looking at, like in the original post.

For people who have gotten many more than three mythics, a run of three of the same somewhere in there is significantly more likely. I have gotten 20 SOI mythics, and most of the are 1x and 2x, with only one 4x.

huntly

tm00 wrote:

The first mythic is meaningless,you'd have made the thread no matter what mythic you'd have got assuming you got it three times in a row so 1*1/17*1/17 would be the more logical, or 3/17*1/17 if the relevant thing was getting a dupe twice.
Still low and since receiving multiple copies of the same mythic from the coalition rewards thrice in a row has been reported multiple times maybe the dews should check.

1/17*1/17 should be low enough to make this event happening more than once in a pool of max 200 player maybe a little suspect. Can someone find the chances of it happening? I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher than 5% but maybe it is lower.

Edit 15% chances of happening with 200 players. 2.8% with 160, it seems possible.

Given n= number of players and p=1/17^2
I used 1-((1-p)^n)+(n*p*((1-p)^(n-1))) this is correct, right?

I wouldn't consider the first mythic meaningless. There was still a 1/17 chance of getting that particular mythic. Then a 1/17 chance of getting it each consecutive time. But the math of it happening amongst 200 players would be 100% the first time unless they got the same mythic.

Bazingaconnor

huntly wrote:

tm00 wrote:

The first mythic is meaningless,you'd have made the thread no matter what mythic you'd have got assuming you got it three times in a row so 1*1/17*1/17 would be the more logical, or 3/17*1/17 if the relevant thing was getting a dupe twice.
Still low and since receiving multiple copies of the same mythic from the coalition rewards thrice in a row has been reported multiple times maybe the dews should check.

1/17*1/17 should be low enough to make this event happening more than once in a pool of max 200 player maybe a little suspect. Can someone find the chances of it happening? I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher than 5% but maybe it is lower.

Edit 15% chances of happening with 200 players. 2.8% with 160, it seems possible.

Given n= number of players and p=1/17^2
I used 1-((1-p)^n)+(n*p*((1-p)^(n-1))) this is correct, right?

I wouldn't consider the first mythic meaningless. There was still a 1/17 chance of getting that particular mythic. Then a 1/17 chance of getting it each consecutive time. But the math of it happening amongst 200 players would be 100% the first time unless they got the same mythic.

The first one is meaningless in the sense that it could be any card, and then you start checking the chances of getting duplicates. In other words, you have a 1/17 chance to get a specific card right off the bat, but 0% chance of it being a duplicate going off just those three cards, as none have been pulled previously.

tm00

Rootbreaker wrote:

tm00 wrote:

The first mythic is meaningless,you'd have made the thread no matter what mythic you'd have got assuming you got it three times in a row so 1*1/17*1/17 would be the more logical, or 3/17*1/17 if the relevant thing was getting a dupe twice.
Still low and since receiving multiple copies of the same mythic from the coalition rewards thrice in a row has been reported multiple times maybe the dews should check.

1/17*1/17 should be low enough to make this event happening more than once in a pool of max 200 player maybe a little suspect. Can someone find the chances of it happening? I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher than 5% but maybe it is lower.

Edit 15% chances of happening with 200 players. 2.8% with 160, it seems possible.

Given n= number of players and p=1/17^2
I used 1-((1-p)^n)+(n*p*((1-p)^(n-1))) this is correct, right?

Remember, this is only true if these are the only events you're looking at, like in the original post.

For people who have gotten many more than three mythics, a run of three of the same somewhere in there is significantly more likely. I have gotten 20 SOI mythics, and most of the are 1x and 2x, with only one 4x.

I remember seeing that thread quite early, but yes, if it was after 5 events the chances are higher unless I grossly underestimated the volatily of the top places.

And I would probably need something a little better than google calculator to not mess up the math.

The event is: the first three myrhics received from top coalition rankings are the same btw.

moogus

huntly wrote:

tm00 wrote:

The first mythic is meaningless,you'd have made the thread no matter what mythic you'd have got assuming you got it three times in a row so 1*1/17*1/17 would be the more logical, or 3/17*1/17 if the relevant thing was getting a dupe twice.
Still low and since receiving multiple copies of the same mythic from the coalition rewards thrice in a row has been reported multiple times maybe the dews should check.

1/17*1/17 should be low enough to make this event happening more than once in a pool of max 200 player maybe a little suspect. Can someone find the chances of it happening? I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher than 5% but maybe it is lower.

Edit 15% chances of happening with 200 players. 2.8% with 160, it seems possible.

Given n= number of players and p=1/17^2
I used 1-((1-p)^n)+(n*p*((1-p)^(n-1))) this is correct, right?

I wouldn't consider the first mythic meaningless. There was still a 1/17 chance of getting that particular mythic. Then a 1/17 chance of getting it each consecutive time. But the math of it happening amongst 200 players would be 100% the first time unless they got the same mythic.

It wouldn't be meaningless if the OP said, "I was specifically trying to get a castigator, got one, then got two more as duplicates."

For his overall point of getting three of the same mythics in a row (could be ANY mythic), then it's 1 * 1/17 * 1/17

fox1342

What we don't know is if all 17 mythics are in the pool of prizes (I suspect not). Perhaps D3 limits the prize mythics to 1 colour for an event, or creatures one event, supports the next, spells for NoP or suchlike, or even just restricts it to those initially released. That makes the pool very much smaller and your chances of duplicates much higher.

pezius

Happened to me 2 sets of times. First set I got inverter of truth 3x in a row. Then I was getting some different mythics and now the past 3 times I got 3 startled awake in a row. Hoping I'm due for some new mythics this time around.

EDHdad

Instead of a "Mythic", I wish the award was "a card you don't already have". Maybe it's a Mythic and maybe it's not. I think the same thing with the big boxes. Instead of a pack which contains a random rare/mythic, I wish that was a pack which contained one card which I do not already have.

Even if the OP was not "unlucky", eventually you get to a point where "guaranteed mythic" becomes "likely duplicate". And since there's no practical use for duplicates in this game, that's the same as "practically nothing".

Corn_Noodles

Maybe a rolling bonus that builds for each card you get that you already have that will result in a greater chance of getting a new card and then resets once you get that new card.

EDHdad

I'd prefer to keep it simple. Have a new type of product. A pack which contains one card, and that card is a card you do not already have. It could be a common or a Mythic, but you do not own that card.

Bazingaconnor

Corn Noodles wrote:

Maybe a rolling bonus that builds for each card you get that you already have that will result in a greater chance of getting a new card and then resets once you get that new card.

This is similar to the "pity timer" in Hearthstone, where you get a guaranteed legendary within 40 packs of the same type. I am a big fan of this idea. It makes it so you have some hope of getting something new, instead of having your hope be crushed by the terrible odds. It also allows everyone to progress their collection, while not progressing too quickly to where packs become near useless.

Pqmtg-

EDHdad wrote:

I'd prefer to keep it simple. Have a new type of product. A pack which contains one card, and that card is a card you do not already have. It could be a common or a Mythic, but you do not own that card.

So what you're saying is you want a new mythic card every pack.

EDHdad

So what you're saying is you want a new mythic card every pack.

Right now, I could really use an uncommon called "Aberrant Researcher", with which I could make a really good Horror tribal deck. In times past, I really needed a Demolish and couldn't pull one to save my life. There have certainly been times (particularly when a set is new) where my top wants are commons and uncommons.

I recently made a list of 9 cards that I actually want. If I pulled them, they would be slotted into a deck. Of these, 5 are lootable Mythics, 1 is an Exclusive Mythic, 2 are rare and 1 is an uncommon. They are scattered across three different sets.

Only one of these cards is a lootable Mythic from Shadows over Innistrad. So I can grind and grind and grind in the current events, and if I'm fortunate enough to get a Mythic, that Mythic has a 1 in 17 chance of being one of the 9 cards I'm actively seeking.

Right now my collection is approximately 100 cards short of being complete. Instead of a random Mythic from Shadows which is likely to be a duplicate, I would rather that it was guaranteed to be one of those 100 cards I don't have, even if it might not be one of the cards I'm actively seeking.

Pqmtg-

EDHdad wrote:

So what you're saying is you want a new mythic card every pack.

Right now, I could really use an uncommon called "Aberrant Researcher", with which I could make a really good Horror tribal deck. In times past, I really needed a Demolish and couldn't pull one to save my life. There have certainly been times (particularly when a set is new) where my top wants are commons and uncommons.

I recently made a list of 9 cards that I actually want. If I pulled them, they would be slotted into a deck. Of these, 5 are lootable Mythics, 1 is an Exclusive Mythic, 2 are rare and 1 is an uncommon. They are scattered across three different sets.

Only one of these cards is a lootable Mythic from Shadows over Innistrad. So I can grind and grind and grind in the current events, and if I'm fortunate enough to get a Mythic, that Mythic has a 1 in 17 chance of being one of the 9 cards I'm actively seeking.

Right now my collection is approximately 100 cards short of being complete. Instead of a random Mythic from Shadows which is likely to be a duplicate, I would rather that it was guaranteed to be one of those 100 cards I don't have, even if it might not be one of the cards I'm actively seeking.

Think about how many big boxes you would need to buy before you were drawing a guaranteed (new) mythic every pack.

EDHdad

Think about how many big boxes you would need to buy before you were drawing a guaranteed (new) mythic every pack.

The Shadows over Innistrad mythic I pull is guaranteed to not be Exert Influence, Lantern Scout, Infinite Obliteration, The Great Aurora, etc.

I don't understand what is so difficult about this concept: card collectors want to complete sets. There should be a mechanism in this game which allows people, after spending either hundreds of hours or hundreds of dollars, to complete a set.