What are the average # of rares/mythics from a big box?

yunnnn

I just picked up 2 bbs of Bfz and got:

1: 1 new mythic + 2 dupe rares (1 was from the guaranteed)
2: 1 new rare + 2 dupe rares (1 was from guaranteed)

Note: I've never opened a Bfz big box before, and I only have a total of ~10 bfz rares.

This is a serious question (because I've only opened a total of 6 big boxes now):
Do 14 packs generally only give you 2 rares... (not counting the guaranteed one)?

If this is how the drops are... I'm just never going to buy packs until I get all the pws first. Getting precisely 1 new card for 600 gems (esp. when I've never opened this set before in mass) is kind of absurd, and I'd rather have 1-2 new planeswalkers instead.

Feyda

Mileage probably varies, I've opened 2 of the big boxes with earned crystals, got a few rares (4-5? Dont remember exactly) in the first one and only 1-2 rares out of the second one, absolutely zero mythics so far.

huntly

Yeah the drop rates suck big time. On extremely rare occasions there have been reports of multiple mythics in a BB, usually 2 of the same mythic. We have been trying to improve it on another thread that got moved to suggestions.
viewtopic.php?f=36&t=49913
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speakupaskanswer

My Origins BB just gave me 6 rares and 1 mythic (2 dupes), which is really fine with me.

yunnnn

huntly wrote:

Yeah the drop rates suck big time. On extremely rare occasions there have been reports of multiple mythics in a BB, usually 2 of the same mythic. We have been trying to improve it on another thread that got moved to suggestions.
viewtopic.php?f=36&t=49913
Give the post a like to help raise the voice of the little people.

Yea, I've definitely had the double same mythic in a BB thing happen to me (3-4 Odrics, thanks game).

---

I'm not even complaining from a "I hate this game" perspective; I just want to figure out the probabilities so I can apply my efforts efficiently and know how to spend my dollars or crystals.

If I had a limited supply of cash, and I were to IAP and buy BBs, it seems mathematically better to simply always buy the promo packs with the guaranteed mythics, especially since they are typically overpowered. (I'm sure this is what the devs want anyway).

The PWs on the other hand, as they are a guaranteed constant, seems like they should always be purchased with crystals.

TL:DR; I want to verify that opening packs is a joke, so that I can just focus on getting uncommons and PWs using crystals, then either pray to luck gods or buy the promo mythics.

DragonXNIK-

I've been documenting my big boxes opened over the last month as screenshots. Average return is something like 3+1(guaranteed) rares per big box with an expectation of roughly 1/3 mythics per box (One for every three big boxes). It looks like I've opened something like 10 of them. Got one nice box with two non duplicate mythics (technically 3 but 2 copies of one of them in the same box). All else were rares only.

Only reliable way to get mythics is to buy promos and join top coalitions. Beyond that it's blind luck. I've gotten at least 3 mythics from free boosters over the course of the last half a year, more then that if you count duplicates.

Theros

opened 5 big boxes (1 red 4 SOI) and 0 mythics, 3 new rares in all of them, in a span of roughly 4 weeks. Meanwhile, I got 3 new Mythics from free boosters during 4 weeks span (chandra's ignition, relentless dead, quarantine field). My collection is not even large enough (relatively new player) for me to expect dupes.
For me, based on 5 bbx the drop rate of mythic is 0% cause i got none.
As for rares, It is 100% guaranteed to get at least 1 rare every bbx.
But what is the chance of getting a new card?

Yawgmoth

I've opened between 15-18 big boxes. Unfortunately I didn't record any precise data, I just remember on average it's been around 4 rares per box, and a mythic in more than half of them. There have been extremes, like a SoI box with 2 different mythics and 8 rares. Or my most recent Origins box with just 2 rares (1 of them guaranteed). That one had zero new cards despite me missing a couple ORI uncommons still, that was painful to open.

As for new cards they seem to be just fully random, pack contents having no regards of your current collection. I don't know of any evidence that would suggest otherwise, despite reading about and witnessing extreme cases of RNG.

Another thing to mention is that the number of rares/mythics per box may be different for different sets. BFZ having the best ratios. It's because of a different number of total rares in the set and BFZ boosters also including OGW cards. And the OGW boosters (never on sale) were always full of rares as it's a set with no commons. So if you want a high sheer number of rares/mythics go for Battle for Zendikar boxes while they're still on sale. And Origins has generally been terrible for me compared to the other 2 sets, but 5'ish boxes is too small of a sample to generalize.

majincob

We did a big data collation earlier this year when drop rates fell. Rule of thumb is expected distribution is roughly 1 mythic per big box and roughly 1 rare per fat pack. But there is definitely a non-trivial chance of getting no rares/mythics outside of the guaranteed rare in the big box. RNGeezus doesn't care about your current collection because that would be too much work to code (Occam's razor).

MaxMagic420

Dropping in to say I've opened four big boxes, three or four fat packs, plus all the free and reward boosters within the last six weeks or so. No mythics. 9 consecutive duplicate rares. I know my case isn't typical probably, but the fact that it has happened and is still happening is an indication that something needs tweaked. Slightly. It would be nice if they had one guaranteed rare in fat packs and 5-6 guaranteed plus guaranteed mythic in the big boxes. That would be reasonable I think.

majincob

MaxMagic420 wrote:

Dropping in to say I've opened four big boxes, three or four fat packs, plus all the free and reward boosters within the last six weeks or so. No mythics. 9 consecutive duplicate rares. I know my case isn't typical probably, but the fact that it has happened and is still happening is an indication that something needs tweaked. Slightly. It would be nice if they had one guaranteed rare in fat packs and 5-6 guaranteed plus guaranteed mythic in the big boxes. That would be reasonable I think.

The original drop rates were along those lines last year.

EDHdad

OP - your results seem typical (including the part where the mythics / rares you got were mostly duplicates). As a general rule of thumb, if a planeswalker I don't have is available for crystals, I buy the planeswalker. If no planeswalker I need is available and if I have 600 crystals, I buy a Big Box. But unless the set is brand new, that Big Box is unlikely to contain more than 2-3 cards which I don't already have.

AettThorn

I just bought a Zendikar BB, and I got only a single rare: the guaranteed one at the end. Needless to say, I was pretty annoyed.

yunnnn

EDHdad wrote:

OP - your results seem typical (including the part where the mythics / rares you got were mostly duplicates). As a general rule of thumb, if a planeswalker I don't have is available for crystals, I buy the planeswalker. If no planeswalker I need is available and if I have 600 crystals, I buy a Big Box. But unless the set is brand new, that Big Box is unlikely to contain more than 2-3 cards which I don't already have.

Thanks! I appreciate your comment and this is exactly what I wanted to know. I dislike games where the drop rates aren't clear, because that is really what leads to disappointment.

I will be following your advice exactly as you said it!

Typhon

"not enough to spend that kind of money on 1 or a dupe"

i have gotten more mythics from the free 8 hour 3 pull than actually spending money on this game