Mission reward frequency stats

Unknown

I have compiled some data on how the mission rewards are doled out.

The official line is that there is a 50/50 chance of receiving an award (assuming one is still available), or 20 iso.

with a limited sample set, I have compiled the below - sorry for the poor formatting:

Award Attempt %
PRIZE 1 22 22 100.00%
PRIZE 2 19 43 44.19%
PRIZE 3 11 20 55.00%
PRIZE 4 3 6 50.00%

cumulative 55 91 60.44%

A few notes: Format is: Prize #, number of that type reward awarded, total number of attempts to win said reward, and the overall percentage (chance of winning given reward)

The data is presented in the number of attempts it took to get the "next" prize in the mission. For instance, if on a given mission, you won three rewards - on the first, third, and fifth, and played twice more but did not get the fourth, the data would show as 1,2,2,0 for reward 1 through 4 respectively. Only attempts that resulted in an actual award are counted (ie if you played three times and did not get the next reward, it was not counted)

Prize 1 is the "gimme" - first time completion always results in a reward - there is no "50 / 50" with the first. With each remaining prize evaluated only against itself, we can see the numbers are running close to the touted 50 / 50.

Of course, we need more data to be conclusive, especially on the #4 reward. I think the upcoming Simulator event would be ideal for a large group sampling.

If there is any interest in persuing this, I would be more than happy to set up a spreadsheet to collect the data. Let me know.

WAH-HOO

Unknown

Thanks for that,

I'm redoing the prologue on a second account just for this purpose but it's slow going since I don't even think about it daily.

So far (very small sample size only half way through Juggernaut) I'm at 66% for cumulative.

Unknown

The cumulative should be 4/7, or 57%, since you get 1/1 for sure and then you should average 3/6 for the rest for completing all 4 prizes.

Unknown

Did you play the games in sequence or in independent runs?

At some point I was making notes too than got bored -- the numbers showed 70% or more chance for 20 ISO consistently.

But my general experience with prizes is that doing the same mission over and over repeatedly (or even alternating a few) has more 20ISOsm while if I enter fresh, I have a good shot to have a prize.

So possibly the 50% would work out if I bother to restart the game before play.

Unknown

Could just be the nature of random chance pasa_ its hard to get accurate feedback and the way statistics work it may take 100 data points to get a number consistent in the 10's place, to get a number consistent in the 1's place would take 10 times that many data points and down to the first decimal would take 10 times as many again.

And omitting any data points can lead to a bias (I.E. I feel like i'm getting a lot of 20 iso lately i'll pay attention now...)

Unknown

The stats are 100% for the first reward then 50% for each further reward. Devs have told us that information, so there's no need to measure it.

Unknown

bughunt wrote:

The stats are 100% for the first reward then 50% for each further reward. Devs have told us that information, so there's no need to measure it.

I understand that; there has just been a lot of... discussion... vis a vis actual reward distribution vs advertised. The point of this exercise was, and is, to prove (technically, to support) the statement that "there is a 50% chance to get a reward - assuming one is available" with empirical data.

Besides, it's numbers and stats and... dare I say? ... the potential for charts!

mmmmm.... charts.....

Unknown

pasa_ wrote:

Did you play the games in sequence or in independent runs?

Independent runs - whenever I picked up the game, and had a notebook handy. Unless I was pushing for an award, I tried to "stop" playing each mission just after an award so I could pick it up next time, and collect accurate data without referring to my notes.