Event/DDQ "Randomised" Tokens

Hyposphere6234

I already know that the "randomisation" of event tokens is garbage, no matter how you paint the limit of chances with scrolling images in effecting randomisation it's garbage.

Originally I thought the DDQ and limited event cover tokens were completely randomised. I know any drop is randomised but when it came to something I felt I had control over with the patterns I discovered I was wrong. Let's cut to the Peggy Carter event, it took nineteen out of twenty one limited tries to land it. At first I thought it was bad luck, I knew I wasn't going to get it on my first few tries. But after a dozen I tried to work out a pattern. I had nine tokens left, it wasn't exactly card counting but I quickly figured out the patterns with only nine tokens left to choose from, it wasn't exactly hard to work out the single 4* from the remaining 2*s. Nine counters in themself isn't hard to count in themself, but the 4* landed in the same spot every time until I pressed two moments before it. The "randomizer" stops after two other pulls, but failed to land on the ninth, eighth, seventh, sixth, fifth, and fourth time.

Either make it true randomisation or quit deluding people with a system that makes them believe their choice matters,

Nightglider1

Hyposphere6234 wrote:

I already know that the "randomisation" of event tokens is garbage, no matter how you paint the limit of chances with scrolling images in effecting randomisation it's garbage.

Originally I thought the DDQ and limited event cover tokens were completely randomised. I know any drop is randomised but when it came to something I felt I had control over with the patterns I discovered I was wrong. Let's cut to the Peggy Carter event, it took nineteen out of twenty one limited tries to land it. At first I thought it was bad luck, I knew I wasn't going to get it on my first few tries. But after a dozen I tried to work out a pattern. I had nine tokens left, it wasn't exactly card counting but I quickly figured out the patterns with only nine tokens left to choose from, it wasn't exactly hard to work out the single 4* from the remaining 2*s. Nine counters in themself isn't hard to count in themself, but the 4* landed in the same spot every time until I pressed two moments before it. The "randomizer" stops after two other pulls, but failed to land on the ninth, eighth, seventh, sixth, fifth, and fourth time.

Either make it true randomisation or quit deluding people with a system that makes them believe their choice matters,

It's a pretty little animation, nothing more. Your pull is determined at the moment you choose to take something from the vault. The only time you can guarantee that you will tap on a specific prize is when there's only one left in the vault.

And plenty of people drew Peggy with their first few tries.

auralgami

Either this isn't true, or there is more to the animations than has been told.

During the Howard the Duck event, I emptied the vault. The animations described a repeating, regular pattern. I was able to regularly get the prize expected by the pattern...EXCEPT for Howard. At least twice, I opened a token that "should" have been Howard and was also out of sequence.

It is one thing to be off by one. That is a timing thing. That happened too, and I am willing to say that's on me. The out of sequence thing? Not so much.

We_are_Venom

auralgami wrote:

Either this isn't true, or there is more to the animations than has been told.

During the Howard the Duck event, I emptied the vault. The animations described a repeating, regular pattern. I was able to regularly get the prize expected by the pattern...EXCEPT for Howard. At least twice, I opened a token that "should" have been Howard and was also out of sequence.

It is one thing to be off by one. That is a timing thing. That happened too, and I am willing to say that's on me. The out of sequence thing? Not so much.

I posted this very same thing on Reddit maybe a month ago. I experienced the very same thing you are describing; repeating pattern in which you can isolate covers as long as the cover wanted is not a 4*. If it was a 4*, the prize became random. I was basically called a lunatic.

auralgami

To be sure, it's not easy to set up the conditions to observe it. You have to be able to empty an entire vault, or at least get it down low enough to observe the pattern. It also sounds tinfoil hat ludicrous, but I observed it.

If every pull is predetermined, the looped pattern would be meaningless. But, I found you could predict what you would get and I tested it it make sure the pattern was legit. Watch the pattern, let it repeat, and then hit at the right time to get the item as it came around a second (or third) time. If pulls were predetermined, the results wouldn't even be close. But I would always get the item I wanted or the item right before/after it. I tested it with Hero Point tokens, and it worked for them.

I was hoping to hold on to some tacos so I wouldn't totally empty the vault. But, since it was a one-time only Howard vault, I wanted to try for Howard. I was totally willing to empty the whole thing, so I figured I may as well get the best pulls out of it.

Then I tried for Howard and I watched this "substitution" happen. I should have gotten Howard, or an ISO reward right after him. Instead, I got 2 * Bullseye, which was several "slots" further down in the pattern. Bullseye wasn't even close, yet that's what I got.

Everything else I either got the item I was gunning for, or I got the thing right before/after it in the pattern. Eventually, I did get Howard without totally emptying the vault. So, it obviously doesn't substitute all the time. But it does happen.

As an aside, I'm pretty good at those "spinny light" ticket machines at Chuck E Cheese and other places. These are the machines where a light goes around in a circular pattern and you hit a button to stop the light. If you get it exactly, you get the ticket jackpot.

If the vault was predetermined and pulls were completely random, I wouldn't have wasted any of my time with this. But it does work...except for the highest value items. Sometimes you get them, and sometimes you get a booby prize.

Bowgentle

I can't find the post, but it has been stated by Ice himself that the vault animation is just for show and that the pull is predetermined.

Save the time typing up those posts, it's confirmation bias.

Lilith

https://d3go.com/forums/posting.php?mode=quote&f=7&p=406414

In which that very question was put to IceX, with his answer as follows:

Nonnel (Chaos Cmd) - Oh. On the vault. Is the outcome predetermined?
IceIX - As predetermined as a Comic Pack pull is. IE: It rolls the dice compared to an odds table and gives the reward. The Vault's roll is pretty much
Code: Select all
RAND(NUM_REM_ITEMS)
.
IceIX - Although if what you're asking is if there's some kinda skill game with the icons pre-pull, that's all just graphics. Zero to do with what's pulled other than showing icons for what's in there.

Just to help out

Bowgentle

Lilith wrote:

https://d3go.com/forums/posting.php?mode=quote&f=7&p=406414

In which that very question was put to IceX, with his answer as follows:

Nonnel (Chaos Cmd) - Oh. On the vault. Is the outcome predetermined?
IceIX - As predetermined as a Comic Pack pull is. IE: It rolls the dice compared to an odds table and gives the reward. The Vault's roll is pretty much
Code: Select all
RAND(NUM_REM_ITEMS)
.
IceIX - Although if what you're asking is if there's some kinda skill game with the icons pre-pull, that's all just graphics. Zero to do with what's pulled other than showing icons for what's in there.

Just to help out

Thanks!

Nightglider1

auralgami wrote:

To be sure, it's not easy to set up the conditions to observe it. You have to be able to empty an entire vault, or at least get it down low enough to observe the pattern. It also sounds tinfoil hat ludicrous, but I observed it.

If every pull is predetermined, the looped pattern would be meaningless. But, I found you could predict what you would get and I tested it it make sure the pattern was legit. Watch the pattern, let it repeat, and then hit at the right time to get the item as it came around a second (or third) time. If pulls were predetermined, the results wouldn't even be close. But I would always get the item I wanted or the item right before/after it. I tested it with Hero Point tokens, and it worked for them.

I was hoping to hold on to some tacos so I wouldn't totally empty the vault. But, since it was a one-time only Howard vault, I wanted to try for Howard. I was totally willing to empty the whole thing, so I figured I may as well get the best pulls out of it.

Then I tried for Howard and I watched this "substitution" happen. I should have gotten Howard, or an ISO reward right after him. Instead, I got 2 * Bullseye, which was several "slots" further down in the pattern. Bullseye wasn't even close, yet that's what I got.

Everything else I either got the item I was gunning for, or I got the thing right before/after it in the pattern. Eventually, I did get Howard without totally emptying the vault. So, it obviously doesn't substitute all the time. But it does happen.

As an aside, I'm pretty good at those "spinny light" ticket machines at Chuck E Cheese and other places. These are the machines where a light goes around in a circular pattern and you hit a button to stop the light. If you get it exactly, you get the ticket jackpot.

If the vault was predetermined and pulls were completely random, I wouldn't have wasted any of my time with this. But it does work...except for the highest value items. Sometimes you get them, and sometimes you get a booby prize.

I'm not going to shout "confirmation bias" or "tinfoil hat" or anything else. However, the next time you choose to do something like this, you should get it on video. That would go a long way toward supporting your position.

We_are_Venom

Bowgentle wrote:

I can't find the post, but it has been stated by Ice himself that the vault animation is just for show and that the pull is predetermined.

Save the time typing up those posts, it's confirmation bias.

Jesus I'm tired of seeing parrots cry out "CONFIRMATION BIAS!!" for anything related to numbers in this game. I've never seen it abused in any other game like it is for this one.
If you're content wit his explanation , and obviously you are, for what reason would you bother to click on this thread? Simply to repeat what you've heard second or third hand without any actual personal knowledge?
If that's all you had to add it's you sir that should have saved your time typing and moved on, silently confident in your steadfast belief bestowed to you by the word of Ice.

chill21genlee

We_are_Venom wrote:

Bowgentle wrote:

I can't find the post, but it has been stated by Ice himself that the vault animation is just for show and that the pull is predetermined.

Save the time typing up those posts, it's confirmation bias.

Jesus I'm tired of seeing parrots cry out "CONFIRMATION BIAS!!" for anything related to numbers in this game. I've never seen it abused in any other game like it is for this one.
If you're content wit his explanation , and obviously you are, for what reason would you bother to click on this thread? Simply to repeat what you've heard second or third hand without any actual personal knowledge?
If that's all you had to add it's you sir that should have saved your time typing and moved on, silently confident in your steadfast belief bestowed to you by the word of Ice.

If its really predetermined and the icon rolling animation is just pretty blinky lights...then why do i receive a cover or prize for the exact item that is last visible on my selections over 90 % of the time?
That percent seems way too high to be incidental and i had always just asssume the other 10 was where i was a fraction of a second early or late.

If what ice is saying is true ive been encountering one heck of a sustained run of coincidence considering i started really paying attention to it and tracking it over a year ago now...

I know that theres more 2 stars of the same in each vault so that could explain some of it..but the 90 percent is observed for all pulls.

We_are_Venom

chill21genlee wrote:

We_are_Venom wrote:

Bowgentle wrote:

I can't find the post, but it has been stated by Ice himself that the vault animation is just for show and that the pull is predetermined.

Save the time typing up those posts, it's confirmation bias.

Jesus I'm tired of seeing parrots cry out "CONFIRMATION BIAS!!" for anything related to numbers in this game. I've never seen it abused in any other game like it is for this one.
If you're content wit his explanation , and obviously you are, for what reason would you bother to click on this thread? Simply to repeat what you've heard second or third hand without any actual personal knowledge?
If that's all you had to add it's you sir that should have saved your time typing and moved on, silently confident in your steadfast belief bestowed to you by the word of Ice.

If its really predetermined and the icon rolling animation is just pretty blinky lights...then why do i receive a cover or prize for the exact item that is last visible on my selections over 90 % of the time?
That percent seems way too high to be incidental and i had always just asssume the other 10 was where i was a fraction of a second early or late.

If what ice is saying is true ive been encountering one heck of a sustained run of coincidence considering i started really paying attention to it and tracking it over a year ago now...

I know that theres more 2 stars of the same in each vault so that could explain some of it..but the 90 percent is observed for all pulls.

I got my token for ISO brotherhood. I picked what I wanted, Dr Doom, found him in the pattern. Daken>DeadpooDr>Doom>Colossus. I know I need to press the screen on Daken for it to stop on Doom so i wait for the pattern to refresh...Hulk>Ms Marvel>DAKEN , so I know I need to focus once I see Hulk then Marvel. I see Hulk, get ready...Marvel...my son jumps on me and I'm late, hitting it on Deadpool. I got Colossus, the character after Dr Doom, having pressed the screen one character later than I wanted.

Maybe it's coincidence. Even if so, the coincidence is in my favor more often than not so like an superstitious major leaguer keep using it.

auralgami

Lilith wrote:

https://d3go.com/forums/posting.php?mode=quote&f=7&p=406414

In which that very question was put to IceX, with his answer as follows:

Nonnel (Chaos Cmd) - Oh. On the vault. Is the outcome predetermined?
IceIX - As predetermined as a Comic Pack pull is. IE: It rolls the dice compared to an odds table and gives the reward. The Vault's roll is pretty much
Code: Select all
RAND(NUM_REM_ITEMS)
.
IceIX - Although if what you're asking is if there's some kinda skill game with the icons pre-pull, that's all just graphics. Zero to do with what's pulled other than showing icons for what's in there.

Just to help out

Thank you. I remember reading this. But I don't believe it's true. Lord, I've become one of those "I know what I saw!" or "It happened to me!" people.

I also don't believe it's confirmation bias. If the vault didn't follow the pattern, then a very quick couple of pulls would demonstrate that effectively. It would be a complete waste of time to even try, yet I was able to follow the pattern consistently for everything but Howard. I would have to have astronomically amazing luck to see what I did, and RNGesus never shows me that kind of luck. This was a Taco vault, and I started to try to game it with a fair number of tacos left. If it were truly random and unrelated to the animation, I think that would have been really obvious very quickly.

As for me, I've stopped hoarding tokens. If there's another small vault like the recent Peggy or Guardian vault, then I'll try it with camera on hand. Until then, it's not an easy experiment to set up or confirm.