I just got Cho-lled

chaos01
chaos01 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
edited August 2016 in MPQ General Discussion
RNGesus just trolled me hard. I had 4 LTs to open got three Chos (actually had to sell one as mine was 4/0/0 now 5/1/0) and an IW (one of my two cover maxed 4 stars).

Then I decide to join slice 4 in DD PVP find no seed teams and all nodes sporting maxed DD with 300+ 5 stars. My max character is a 271 teen Jean.

I could have put this in the worst moment thread but thought this type of luck is more than a worst moment.
«1

Comments

  • El Satanno
    El Satanno Posts: 1,005 Chairperson of the Boards
    Is it okay for me to laugh at your misfortune? Because I'd really like to. Schadenfreude is such a satisfying thing...
  • DTStump
    DTStump Posts: 273 Mover and Shaker
    If it makes you feel better, I have never opened any Cho covers.

    ...

    icon_lol.gificon_lol.gificon_lol.gif
  • The Finn
    The Finn Posts: 272 Mover and Shaker
    Can someone please calculate the chances of 3 out of 4 being Cho? Must be some astronomical odds...
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    The Finn wrote:
    Can someone please calculate the chances of 3 out of 4 being Cho? Must be some astronomical odds...

    I get (.025)^3 = .000015625 to get 3 consecutive Chulks (of any color)
  • mpqr7
    mpqr7 Posts: 2,642 Chairperson of the Boards
    At some point, you won't find 300+ 5*s to be that bad... 400+ 5*s on the other hand...
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    The Finn wrote:
    Can someone please calculate the chances of 3 out of 4 being Cho? Must be some astronomical odds...
    Not really, because asking about the chances of getting 3 out of 4 Chos really isn't the right question... it's fairer to ask what's the chances of getting 3 out 4 of ANYTHING, and that answer is about 1 in 260, assuming these were LTs and not classics
  • Dragon_Nexus
    Dragon_Nexus Posts: 3,701 Chairperson of the Boards
    Getting Cho Black or X Force Wolvie Yellow has been the easiest thing in the world for me. XWolv at least is championed now so I can put any I find to good use (though they'll have dried up now I've done that).

    Totally Awful Hulk though...he''s been frustratingly easy to get. He's sat at 3/3/5 while I'm desperately trying to get two more Jean Grey blues or one more Ice Man green. Blue and purple? Easy as hell, I only got one green through a token and another from getting Quicksilver past 183.

    They should really take Cho out of rotation while they rework him...
  • Cunneryn
    Cunneryn Posts: 112
    Its not just you. Plenty of people are in the same situation. Me for exemple, my pull rate for IW in LT 16.6% and I have her maxed, but far from champion (that might never happen anyway).
  • chaos01
    chaos01 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
    Well just opened my hunt token and got. You guessed it the Cho green that was there. I'm hoping this luck can get me some Iceman covers soon. If they drop at this rate I'll be golden.
  • chaos01
    chaos01 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    The Finn wrote:
    Can someone please calculate the chances of 3 out of 4 being Cho? Must be some astronomical odds...

    This is a cherrypicked, micro-dataset.

    If enough people try, or if one person opens enough tokens, the chances approach 100%, and the chances of it not happening approach 0%.

    This is like saying that everyday the sun doesn't explode makes it more likely to explode. Random is random and doesn't make the odds any less astronomical.
  • huktonfonix
    huktonfonix Posts: 214 Tile Toppler
    If it makes you feel any better, Cho was my first fully-covered 4*. You're not alone.

    Silver lining - trolling my alliance mates by sending them Totally Awesome (tm) teamups.
  • TLCstormz
    TLCstormz Posts: 1,668
    Really, truly sucks to be AFRAID to open up in game rewards, in a video game.

    Lord.
  • Dragon_Nexus
    Dragon_Nexus Posts: 3,701 Chairperson of the Boards
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    The Finn wrote:
    Can someone please calculate the chances of 3 out of 4 being Cho? Must be some astronomical odds...

    This is a cherrypicked, micro-dataset.

    If enough people try, or if one person opens enough tokens, the chances approach 100%, and the chances of it not happening approach 0%.

    That's a gambler's fallacy and is utter nonsense. The only way that's true in this game is if you're talking about vaults.
    When it's token pulls, the odds of pulling Cho are always the same. You can flip a coin 100 times but you'll likely not end up with a result of 50 heads and 50 tails, despite the odds being 1 in 2 every flip.
  • carrion_pigeons
    carrion_pigeons Posts: 942 Critical Contributor
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    The Finn wrote:
    Can someone please calculate the chances of 3 out of 4 being Cho? Must be some astronomical odds...

    This is a cherrypicked, micro-dataset.

    If enough people try, or if one person opens enough tokens, the chances approach 100%, and the chances of it not happening approach 0%.

    Sure, this is true, but no one has made any claims (so far, in this thread) about "enough" tokens. Given the 4 tokens that were opened, this was really bad luck, and we should all be able to sympathize.

    Once people start using it as evidence of anything but astoundingly bad luck (such as a programming flaw), then we'd have to start taking sample size arguments seriously, but nobody has gone there. It was just bad luck.
  • Calnexin
    Calnexin Posts: 1,078 Chairperson of the Boards
    The Finn wrote:
    Can someone please calculate the chances of 3 out of 4 being Cho? Must be some astronomical odds...

    400%. It's Amadeus Cho. He knows all the probabilities, so he's angled his covers to be the most probable. He is, after all, Totally Awesome.
  • GrimSkald
    GrimSkald Posts: 2,695 Chairperson of the Boards
    chaos01 wrote:
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    The Finn wrote:
    Can someone please calculate the chances of 3 out of 4 being Cho? Must be some astronomical odds...

    This is a cherrypicked, micro-dataset.

    If enough people try, or if one person opens enough tokens, the chances approach 100%, and the chances of it not happening approach 0%.

    This is like saying that everyday the sun doesn't explode makes it more likely to explode. Random is random and doesn't make the odds any less astronomical.

    Put it this way, if the odds are, as Simonsez said, 1 in 260 for three of any particular character then if you pull 780 tokens, it's a very good chance that will happen to you at least once (get three of a character in a row.) Spread that among all the players, and yeah, I'm sure it happens all the time.

    Put another way, using your exploding example - lets say there's a .1% chance per day that a person randomly explodes. That means over a thousand days (bit under three years,) there's a very good chance (I believe 50%) that you will have exploded. Or looking at it yet another way, if we look at a sample of a thousand people, every day there's a 50% that someone in that group exploded.

    Weird coincidences are only weird in a vacuum. I pulled two Spider Gwens in a row today, almost immediately following pulling two Professor Xs in a row. That's a really low chance, sure, but it does happen.
  • MushroomGenius808
    MushroomGenius808 Posts: 138 Tile Toppler
    Had a similar experience with X-23, pulled 3 in a row, all green. She's now 4/0/0. icon_e_confused.gif
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    GrimSkald wrote:
    Put it this way, if the odds are, as Simonsez said, 1 in 260
    I believe the proper usage is Simonsaid...
  • morph3us
    morph3us Posts: 859 Critical Contributor
    simonsez wrote:
    GrimSkald wrote:
    Put it this way, if the odds are, as Simonsez said, 1 in 260
    I believe the proper usage is Simonsed...

    Fixed it for you!
  • Huatimus
    Huatimus Posts: 115
    I also max covered Cho way before any of the other 4* that was released around the same time period.
    And still getting duplicate Cho.
    Seriously...can imagine him saying to me:"Cho-lolol"

    And I didn't even play for his release PVE event.

Categories