Unstoppable packs - only a chance at Thor?

StryveUnderfire

So if you look at the new Unstoppable 10-pack, it lists a increased chance (~15% per draw) chance to get 3-star Thor, rather than a guarantee. Why change it up for a 10-pack that costs 3800 ISO? So some poor sucker who really wants to have the new Thor in their roster can have terrible luck and end up with a bunch of Captain America and Hawkeye covers? I'd think anyone willing to drop $30 in one shot on your free to play game would like a guarantee that they'll get something they want.

Puritas

20% chance of your 10-pack not having the cover you want is pretty pathetic at $30

Jathro

If i understand correctly, you'd have a 15% of a Thor on each of the 10 covers. So it comes out to a roughly 1-1.5 Thors per 10-pack.

Unknown

I bought a few to try got 2 to 3 per pack

chamber44

Jathro wrote:

If i understand correctly, you'd have a 15% of a Thor on each of the 10 covers. So it comes out to a roughly 1-1.5 Thors per 10-pack.

yes, but the RNG technically isn't "random." Furthermore, if it's highly unlikely (85%) that you will not get a Thor on any one cover, doesn't it make sense that "luck" would continue throughout the entire 10-pack?

Unknown

According to the stats provided,

The chance to pull a Modern Thor in a 10-pack is 14.29%. This means there is a (100% - 14.29%) 85.71% chance of NOT pulling a Modern Thor on each pull.

Therefore the chances of not pulling a Modern Thor at all are (85.71%)^10 = 21.395%.

The odds are 1 in 4.674 (100% / 21.395%) that a Modern Thor is not pulled at all in a 10-pack.

Unknown

Old way:

1 guaranteed + 9 chances at 4.76%

Chance of 0 cover = 0%
Chance of 1 cover = 65%
Chance of 2 covers = 35%

New way:

10 chances at 14.29%

Chance of 0 cover = 21%
Chance of 1 cover = about 25%
Chance of 2 covers = about 54%

I cheated a bit and just calculated the chance of getting no covers out of 5 and subtracted that from 1 for the 2 covers because figuring out the correct combinatorics is kind of a pain but these numbers should be in the rough ballpark.

You basically have 20% chance of getting nothing but you also have 20% more chance of getting 2 covers. Instead of getting 1 cover most of the time, you're actually most likely to get 2 covers, but the drawback is now you can also get 0 covers.

I'm guessing people would prefer the old way, but they average out to be the same.

Unknown

Jathro wrote:

If i understand correctly, you'd have a 15% of a Thor on each of the 10 covers. So it comes out to a roughly 1-1.5 Thors per 10-pack.

Correct, so for the people that already have Thor, if you're thinking of getting that pack but only need more of his covers you are 'better' off buying individual covers.

Unknown

beezer37_84 wrote:

Jathro wrote:

If i understand correctly, you'd have a 15% of a Thor on each of the 10 covers. So it comes out to a roughly 1-1.5 Thors per 10-pack.

Correct, so for the people that already have Thor, if you're thinking of getting that pack but only need more of his covers you are 'better' off buying individual covers.

It's pretty much always better to just pay 1250 HP than buying the 3800 HP pack if you already have the covers. You can get 3 covers for that price and you almost certainly won't be pulling 3 Thors.

If you're missing a cover for Thor, it really doesn't matter either way since the old way you'll just have 1 cover, but it might not be the one you need. The new way you've some chances of getting 0 too, but you also have a roughly equally improved chance of getting 2 covers which gives you a second shot at getting the cover you need.

If you have no Thor at all, you'd probably prefer the old way with a guaranteed Thor, over this way that has a 21% chance of nothing to show for your effort.

Nemek

Phantron wrote:

beezer37_84 wrote:

Jathro wrote:

If i understand correctly, you'd have a 15% of a Thor on each of the 10 covers. So it comes out to a roughly 1-1.5 Thors per 10-pack.

Correct, so for the people that already have Thor, if you're thinking of getting that pack but only need more of his covers you are 'better' off buying individual covers.

It's pretty much always better to just pay 1250 HP than buying the 3800 HP pack if you already have the covers. You can get 3 covers for that price and you almost certainly won't be pulling 3 Thors.

If you're missing a cover for Thor, it really doesn't matter either way since the old way you'll just have 1 cover, but it might not be the one you need. The new way you've some chances of getting 0 too, but you also have a roughly equally improved chance of getting 2 covers which gives you a second shot at getting the cover you need.

If you have no Thor at all, you'd probably prefer the old way with a guaranteed Thor, over this way that has a 21% chance of nothing to show for your effort.

Yeah, was going to say something similar. If you already have all of Thor's covers, it is never a good idea to buy the 10-pack.

Unknown

i bought it twice... and i gotta say they need to guarantee at least 1 three star hero... but i did get 3 IM 40s i needed out of the first one, oh and the best part i got 12 captain americas!!!!

Unknown

I bought a ten pack and got two green thors, one red thor, and one blue iron man. Very happy!!

Unknown

rpmurray wrote:

I bought a ten pack and got two green thors, one red thor, and one blue iron man. Very happy!!

Grats, very lucky pull!

Unknown

rpmurray wrote:

I bought a ten pack and got two green thors, one red thor, and one blue iron man. Very happy!!

Someone did beat the odds!

Unknown

Absolutely pathetic that a fat Thor isn't guaranteed.

Unknown

i bought that 10pack hoping for atleast 1 thor i ended up getting

1 psylock
8 wolverine
1 captain america

that pack was pretty depressing so i just manually lvled up 3* thor.
got him up to lvl 83 atm and hes allready stronger then 2* thor
so i feel a nerf coming fast on him(i hope not thor is my fav)

Unknown

Lyrian wrote:

....
The odds are 1 in 4.674 (100% / 21.395%) that a Modern Thor is not pulled at all in a 10-pack.

I know some scratch tickets with worse odds than that.

mouser

Phantron wrote:

Old way:

1 guaranteed + 9 chances at 4.76%

Chance of 0 cover = 0%
Chance of 1 cover = 65%
Chance of 2 covers = 35%

New way:

10 chances at 14.29%

Chance of 0 cover = 21%
Chance of 1 cover = about 25%
Chance of 2 covers = about 54%

I cheated a bit and just calculated the chance of getting no covers out of 5 and subtracted that from 1 for the 2 covers because figuring out the correct combinatorics is kind of a pain but these numbers should be in the rough ballpark.

You basically have 20% chance of getting nothing but you also have 20% more chance of getting 2 covers. Instead of getting 1 cover most of the time, you're actually most likely to get 2 covers, but the drawback is now you can also get 0 covers.

I'm guessing people would prefer the old way, but they average out to be the same.

The odds for X covers out of a possible N covers where %PCT% is the probability for each cover is equal to %PCT%^X * (1-%PCT%)^(N-X) * N! / ((N-X)! * X!). Basically you're computing the probability of X successes and N-X failures, then multiplying by the # of possible combinations for selecting X successes from N chances. Can do the same thing for the previous version of the packs by using N = 9 and adding one to the result.

So that yields:

Old Version:

---

# of covers - probability
1 - 64.47%
2 - 29.00%
3 - 5.80%
4 - 0.68%
5 - 0.05%
6-10 - 0.00% rounded
Average Covers = 1.429

New Version:

---

# of covers - probability
0 - 21.40%
1 - 35.67%
2 - 26.76%
3 - 11.90%
4 - 3.47%
5 - 0.69%
6 - 0.10%
7 - 0.01%
8-10 - 0.00% rounded
Average Covers = 1.428


So, yup on average the same # of covers come in each pack. They've just squished the probability curve to increase the possibility of 3+ covers at the trade-off of adding the possibility of zero covers.

Unknown

twice now ive bought the 10 pack and gotten 10 two star characters.... **** this **** man im so pissed 3800/4000 hp should not even have a 1% chance of netting just 2500 iso-8 in return.

so when you start wo wonder why your big spenders have stopped... well this is why this one will never purchase HP again.

Unknown

You can get the average by just looking at the % rate per pack without the fancy math. I know how the math works out but trying to think about X choose N and making sure you've the right terms is kind of tiring. The chance of getting more than 1 Thor in 5 packs with the triple odds is about 25% (1 subtract chance of getting 0 Thors), and that's pretty close to the actual odds of getting 2 in 10 even though they're not quite the same thing.

Unknown

Malkavian wrote:

twice now ive bought the 10 pack and gotten 10 two star characters.... tinykitty this tinykitty man im so pissed 3800/4000 hp should not even have a 1% chance of netting just 2500 iso-8 in return.

Thanks. It was much better with the guaranteed cover. That's a lot of hp spent.