Troubling Results From Latest Legendary Tokens

fmftint

Is anyone else seeing an unusual (unlikely) amount of repeat pulls from Latest Legendary Tokens since the recent pool update?
Since the addition of Kate Bishop and Moonknight I've opened 8 Latest Legendary Tokens and the results are troubling









In this same timeframe I've also opened 8 Classic Legendary Tokens with no duplicates

I believe there is something wrong with the draw model that needs to be investigated
I don't know if it's something to do with the reroll protection, but these results are highly unlikely

If I went to a casino and was playing roulette and the same number came up 3 times in a row and 4/8 spins, the table would be shut down and inspected to ensure it was functioning propperly

spotcoder336

Small sample size is small, if anything it shows pulls are random.

We_are_Venom

I've pulled 20 different characters in the last 20 pulls, combo of LT/CT.

DFiPL

random doesn't mean "every pull will always be different."

Which is why a lot of 'random' generators aren't -developers fudge them because end users see a goofy streak from small sample sizes and go IT'S NOT RANDOM!!!ONE1!

So they get tweaked to display output the userbase "expects."

padei_panda

My draws have been random.

I can understand your frustration if you already have those covers, but to a new person, those draws would be quite rewarding as you have an Elektra with all 3 abilities.

I have tracked all my LT / CP pulls - a total of 185 and across the board. I have had plenty of back to back draws of the same char, and 3 of those events were the same color!
I have not had 3-in-a-row draw of the 1 char though.

Then there is one time I drew 2 yellow covers, 1 purple, 2 yellow, 1 purple, 2 yellow covers and they were ALL different characters.

"Strange things" do happen when you draw from RNG but I am convinced it is not broken.

wirius

"Unlikely" does not mean "Not Random". You randomly pulled some characters row after row back to back. It happens.

carrion_pigeons

I really really doubt a casino would take such drastic action over the results of eight spins on a roulette wheel, unless there was somebody suspiciously taking advantage of it. That sort of false pattern recognition is a big reason why roulette is such a big draw.

The odds of pulling 4 of a single character out of 8 pulls is about 1 in 581. Definitely unlikely, but bound to happen to someone, and if the average player makes a lot of pulls, then bound to happen to most people, eventually.

DTStump

The amount of unlikely events that might happen is so huge that it is very likely that some of them actually happen.

Did that make sense?

Polares

This RNG has always had 'stickiness' problems, I think they generate more than one token at a time and this is why it might get the same result (same seed?).

This same week I pulled two KP purple in two consecutive tokens, and in the last three weeks I have pulled like 6 Thing covers. I always pull 4s in rounds, last time it was Rhulk, I pulled like 5 in two weeks.

PS: In my particular case I want to point out that for some weird reason it looks like I can't pull a 5 in latest LTs. I have not pulled a 5 in latest in the last 20+ pulls. It is not that bad because my ratio in classic LTs is ok, but it is annoying not being able to pull covers for GG or IM46.

GrumpySmurf1002

Polares wrote:

This RNG has always had 'stickiness' problems, I think they generate more than one token at a time and this is why it might get the same result (same seed?).

Nah, it's perfectly normal that I pulled 1Spidey purple 5 straight times from PvP battles, and 7 out of 8 (interrupted by 140iso).

simonsez

spotcoder336 wrote:

Small sample size is small, if anything it shows pulls are random.

Like hell it does. Computing probabilities takes sample size into account. If something has a 0.2% chance of happening, you don't need to know what the sample size is, because that's already baked in.

MaxxPowerz

I have my own suspicions...

I always manage to pull a new cover that I missed out on. It's like the game is telling me it wants me to buy more roster slots. Not such a big deal unless you consider the meager amount of tokens I get every month, probably somewhere around 8-10.

I stopped competing in new character events after the first run of the Civil War event. Since then I've gotten each character I've missed out on through the few LT's I've pulled (Iron Man, Kate Bishop, War Machine, Moon Knight).

Now I have to figure out a way to roster these 4 characters which I will probably never use.

laughingMAN

If it's a problem, it's not a new one. Before the update I pulled 4 green red hulks (which I can't use) within 6 pulls (spread between classic, latest, and even one from a heroic).

Tarheelmax

I think there have been times where server issues lead to double pulls. You make a pull, the server somehow doesn't register it, so you make another pull and bam, same cover you just pulled.

So, just in case, any time I plan to pull multiple covers, I (a) view a leaderboard after a bad pull or (b) immediately make my second pull after a good pull.

dsds

Tarheelmax wrote:

I think there have been times where server issues lead to double pulls. You make a pull, the server somehow doesn't register it, so you make another pull and bam, same cover you just pulled.

So, just in case, any time I plan to pull multiple covers, I (a) view a leaderboard after a bad pull or (b) immediately make my second pull after a good pull.

I like how you think. This is how I am going to pull tokens from now on.

I've always thought the same thing as you. I always thought it was the fix they did to prevent people from force quitting the game to get another card from the legendary tokens. Draws are predetermined before pulling. And somehow I think there are glitches on the server that force the same cover on you in the same way if you force quit and draw again, you would get the same cover.

carrion_pigeons

Tarheelmax wrote:

(b) immediately make my second pull after a good pull.

I'm very curious, how has this worked out for you? Do you successfully make double pulls of good covers using this strategy?