RNG gripe of the day

Vhailorx

6 Legendary tokens opened (4 classics, 2 new).

There are currently 31 4*s in the tokens, and at 3 covers a piece, that's 93 different cover possibilities. Of those 93, 19 are useless to me (either extra covers for unchamped 4*s, or color-maxed covers for under-covered 4*s.

19/93 is just over 20%. So one would expect a little more than 1 of every 5 LTs to be useless for me.

Instead, I pulled 4 useless 4*s, more than 3x the expected rate (and of course no 5*s. I am not allowed to have any useful 5*s). Yay for small sample sizes.

Ugh, alright aesthetocyst, you win. It's time to start stockpiling!

HaywireII

The random numbers are an emotional roller coaster. I only have 3 covers of the 93 that I can't use so that should be about a 3.8% chance of my token being a waste. My VIP legendary yesterday and my DDQ crash token today each pulled one of those three covers.

I just got my Oscorp vault token and pulled the Ant Man yellow so I feel 50% reimbursed.

Darknes21

Yellow Mr Sucktactic from today's DDQ4....fu rng!

mpqr7

I won 5* captain america from the 4* ddq, so that's cool.

My current mindset is to just play and then every now and then champion a new 4*... and not worry too much about getting useful covers from LTs... I figure it will happen soon enough. Sure, I haven't been able to level up my OML in months, but hey, there's nothing else I can do to speed it up due to rng, so I'll just keep at it.

MarvelMan

Darknes21 wrote:

Yellow Mr Sucktactic from today's DDQ4....fu rng!

I got......Antman!

pheregas

I pulled my 10th Gwen Red today. I'm 0/7 for 5*s since the new odds and haven't pulled a 5 at all in my last 21 pulls.

I've decided that I'm not redeeming any more CP for LTs until I get the final people on my list fully leveled. I tend to let the almighty RNG decide who goes next by whichever cover drops next.

To go:

Spider-Gwen
Quake (closest)
X-23

To be determined:

Venom
Nova

To far away to be considered:

Drax
Winter Soldier
War Machine
Hawkeye
Moon Knight

tanis3303

I actually have a positive RNG experience for once, and it comes on a day where many other things are going wrong, so its quite appreciated. Wasn't gonna play this Heroic at all, but was sitting at 19 CP, so I decided to play the opener nodes and grind out the CP from the Moon Knight essential. Not only did I get the CP on the first try, but the token pull got me a yellow Logan.

Ralph-Wiggum

MarvelMan wrote:

Darknes21 wrote:

Yellow Mr Sucktactic from today's DDQ4....fu rng!

I got......Antman!

Me too!

I'm on a nice streak of 28 LTs in a row without a 5*. Twelve of those have been opened since the percentage change. Let's see how long I can go...

Vhailorx

The worst effect of of dilution is locking in an "upper class" of veteran players.

Case in point that favors me:

I was an active competitive player when IMHB was released in may 2015. With some lucky pulls and dilligent play, I was able to get him up to a very functional 5/4/2 in less than 6 weeks. That put me in the bully club. Imhb/if was the best team in the game then and I could trounce anyone and get 1k in every PvP with relative ease. By playing early, I got imhb quickly and had a huge competitive advantage. Someone playing now could exert the exact same amount of effort, and rather than getting a useful IMHB build, get 3-5 covers of 3 different 4*s. And still be playing in 3* land.

Case in point that hurts me:

I struck out on OML covers right when he was introduced in october 2015. And I then took a long break from competitive play. When I started playing again, my 5* drops were spread out among the 6+ current 5*s. So i have every 5* but BSS, but only have more than 2 covers for one of them (a mostly useless 2/2/2 Phoenix). Had I played competitively in the fall, and taken a break in the winter, and opened the exact same number of LTs, I would likely have the about the same,number of 5* covers concentrated in SS and OML (i.e. I would have a useful OML that would make grinding much much easier for me now). Instead I have 6 useless 5* roster slots that do almost nothing for me.

So basically it always pays massive dividends to earn rewards earlier when rewards pool is shallow. Playing more later won't make up the difference. It will just give you a more diluted roster. This is especially true in 5* land where progress is purely rng, and the second-ever release remains the single most important character in the game (yes, I know that IM46 and GG are arguably better than OML, but Logan's sustainability makes him king in a game that demands grinding and charges cash for health).

simonsez

HaywireII wrote:

The random numbers are an emotional roller coaster.

That implies that we all go through ups and downs. But since we don't get infinite tokens, that's not how it plays out. It's more like an emotional amusement park, where some people get to ride the awesome coasters, and some of us are forced to ride the **** magic teacups all day long...

TxMoose

simonsez wrote:

HaywireII wrote:

The random numbers are an emotional roller coaster.

That implies that we all go through ups and downs. But since we don't get infinite tokens, that's not how it plays out. It's more like an emotional amusement park, where some people get to ride the awesome coasters, and some of us are forced to ride the tinykitty magic teacups all day long...

gotta say watching people come off the magic teacups is quite entertaining. watching rng screw long-time vets...not so much. I feel pretty fortunate to get my yellow before dilution began, even if I missed out on the increase in overall odds. I fully expect him to stay 4/1/5 for a looooong time.

Vhailorx

TxMoose wrote:

simonsez wrote:

HaywireII wrote:

The random numbers are an emotional roller coaster.

That implies that we all go through ups and downs. But since we don't get infinite tokens, that's not how it plays out. It's more like an emotional amusement park, where some people get to ride the awesome coasters, and some of us are forced to ride the tinykitty magic teacups all day long...

gotta say watching people come off the magic teacups is quite entertaining. watching rng screw long-time vets...not so much. I feel pretty fortunate to get my yellow before dilution began, even if I missed out on the increase in overall odds. I fully expect him to stay 4/1/5 for a looooong time.

4/1/5 looks pretty good from here at 0/1/0. And at least I will eventually get a black from daily rewards. I really feel sorry for those at 0/0/x, or without him at all after many LT pulls.

CT1888

Pulled my 5th XFW black from my DDQ4 token to take him to 13; that's not my gripe. My gripe is that if not for all the green covers I've pulled over his current 5, he would've be max covered 6 months ago.