A man opens his hoard (75 LTs)

Jarvind

So I opened a whole butt-ton of tokens, you guys. With apologies to El Satanno, as I am shamelessly ripping off his/her monthly season haul posts.

Total tokens opened (this includes the tokens/CP obtained from champ levels that I got as I was going):

Heroic: 67
Heroic 10-packs: 7
Latest Legends (LTs): 22
Classic Legends (CP): 53

I open pvp tokens as I get them, and vault tokens from PVE events are being stockpiled for when they have that one juicy cover, so none of those here.

Rather than list the pulls in order, I've separated their star levels to avoid variant confusion. Behold!

Dat Hoard Tho

Heroic Tokens

Four-Stars





Three-Stars


x2,


x2

Heroic 10-packs

Four-Stars







Three-Stars






x2

Latest Legends

Five-Stars



Four-Stars





x2,

Classic Legends

Five-Stars
x2

x2

Four-Stars

x4

x3
x4,
x3
x2
x3

x2
x2, x2,


x2, x2

Some questions you may have (and if you don't, too bad)!

Which covers did you actually use?

Hulkbuster, 4Thor, X23, Red Hulk and Xpool got some champ levels. All covers for Nova, Gwen, Miles, Big Pun, and Venom were applied to powers. The random stragglers that got used were Kingpin black and purple, Elektra black, Chulk black (ugh), Fury yellow and Starlord yellow and purple.

All 5-star covers were used, naturally.

You didn't get a single cover for Classic Cyclops, Teen Jean, or Iceman! Isn't that mildly irritating?

**** right, good buddy.

Why did you start hoarding to begin with?

Just couldn't use most of the covers I was getting, so I figured I'd stop opening tokens. No grand strategy here.

Why'd you open it now?

I was waiting for a character I didn't care about to come out so I'd have at least another season to stockpile again. Drax is that character - his powers seem exceptionally bleh, and he has 100% color overlap with the one character he'd go best with (Xpool).

How do you feel after opening the hoard?

Meh? I had hoped to get more covers on the newer characters, but I can't complain about the turnout. Big Pun especially got quite a few, which is nice since he seems like one of the better recent releases. And I scraped by with only a single Bag Lady cover in the whole mess, although four Chulk covers is just as blergh.

Are you going to start hoarding again, or open as you go?

Hoard, most likely. I might open tokens for a while for the ISO, as I'll be championing Thing shortly and hopefully Beast before those covers expire. I'd like to champ Carnage but I don't think I can scrape 300k-ish ISO in two weeks.

You got seven 5-star covers in 75 pulls. Almost exactly on the odds!

Yep. Very nearly under - champion levels gave me the CP for one last pull and it was a Surfer black.

I don't have absurd luck and I would have chosen different covers for the most part (Phoenix red and OML black were welcome), but at least I'm not one of those poor saps that goes 50+ pulls between covers.

That last one wasn't a question! YOU ARE BAD AT ENGLISH.

Shut up, nobody likes you.

Do I get bonus points if I read the thread title in the voice of Jaqen H'gar from Game of Thrones?

Very yes.

Why'd you make this post?

I dunno. For the people that like collecting data and because it was kinda fun. Hope you liked it. Gimme some karma. Thanks.

IamTheBiggs

Oh, rip him off all you want. He has it coming.

dr tinykittylove

I enjoy these posts a lot. Have poor impulse control and can't resist opening tokens. Looks like a good haul, all things considered!

blargrx

nice haul! very jealous of your pulls.

the thing that kills me is you got 3-4x of the same color cover for a toon, i'm sure thats fine if you've got them championed, but for those of us still transitioning into 4 land, saving up 30-40 lt and then opening them only to find out you pull 4x thing red covers and hes already sitting 4/1/2... thats the kind of stuff that makes me want to throw my phone.

uberhamster

BlackBoltRocks wrote:

Valar Morghulis, my friend.

In Marvel continuity, that may even happen multiple times!

atomzed

Thanks for sharing, I enjoy seeing this sort of post, simply for the fact that I know there are other hoarders out there like me

My last hoard was 34 classic legends, and I got zero 5*. Depressing but it was offset by the fact that 31 out of the 34 was usable (including champ or to use to train covers).

The lucky thing was that with the latest legendary from champ, I pulled a 5* Phoenix! So it wasn't all that bad.

simonsez

blargrx wrote:

the thing that kills me is you got 3-4x of the same color cover for a toon

Kills me too, because every time someone posts their haul and it invariably shows demonstrably improbable clustering like this, I get into stupid arguments with people who don't understand probability nearly as well as they think they do. I ain't taking the bait this time.

El Satanno

Jarvind wrote:

So I opened a whole butt-ton of tokens, you guys. With apologies to El Satanno, as I am shamelessly ripping off his/her monthly season haul posts.

Shameless indeed! I accept your apologies. And it's Mr. El Satanno.

I am distraught, but not surprised, that your post here has generated more upvotes than all my escapades combined. Perhaps I need more of this "comedy." I probably also need to not worry about nebulous and meaningless constructs like upvotes.

Lemminkäinen

simonsez wrote:

blargrx wrote:

the thing that kills me is you got 3-4x of the same color cover for a toon

Kills me too, because every time someone posts their haul and it invariably shows demonstrably improbable clustering like this, I get into stupid arguments with people who don't understand probability nearly as well as they think they do. I ain't taking the bait this time.

Right back atcha. It would be weirder if it there were no clusters. But you can of course just do a bit of statistics calculations if you're so inclined to prove others wrong.

Polares

Lemminkäinen wrote:

simonsez wrote:

blargrx wrote:

the thing that kills me is you got 3-4x of the same color cover for a toon

Kills me too, because every time someone posts their haul and it invariably shows demonstrably improbable clustering like this, I get into stupid arguments with people who don't understand probability nearly as well as they think they do. I ain't taking the bait this time.

Right back atcha. It would be weirder if it there were no clusters. But you can of course just do a bit of statistics calculations if you're so inclined to prove others wrong.

He was asking just for the opposite, for you or anybody to prove him wrong, it looks like nobody wants or can do the math


It is very hard to know if something weird is really happening with chances and probabilities, and even harder without knowing the sequence in which he pulled all this tokens BUT let's take a closer look at the classic LTs:

First:
5 5s pulled, 4 clustered. Nothing to talk here, the number of 5s is very small, just 9 different possibilities, so I guess still nothing to worry about (but even here we see two clusters).

48 4s pulled, here is were things get even more interesting. 2 times he pulled 4 of the same char and color, twice! That is a lot for 4 ocurrences. The chances of pulling 4 ocurrences of the same char in just 48 are small but pulling it for two different chars is even smaller. Then we have two groups, clustered and not clustered, which are 29-19, again this is slightly off. The number of possibilities here is 87, I think, so almost twice the pulls clustered when we have almost double the possibilities than the number of pulls is a bit off, we are starting to see to much clustering.

I am not saying this is impossible, it is not (there is almost nothing impossible with chance ), but I see a lot of clustering, and the problem is that it always happens, in every single pull we see we see too much clustering. We don't have enough to think there is something that doesn't smell right, BUT it would be great if devs would acknowledged the doubts in the community and gave a bit of feedback. LTs are too important right now, if luck is the only way of progressing in this game, we need to be sure everything is working right.


Just for comparison, I have generated 48 random numbers (of 87 different ocurrences) three times and these are my results:

Clustered 25 out of 48, max size for a cluster 3 (twice)
Clustered 22 out of 48, max size for a cluster 2 (8 times)
Clustered 22 out of 48, max size for a cluster 3 (twice)

As you can see, we don't see that much clustering.

StevO-J

Nice haul, but reading your post has me worried for my own hoard when I decide to open it. I'm up to 62 LT's and about 950 CP, but have been waiting on day 730 (coming up on 700 now..) to see how a 5* affects my scaling. The part that has me worried is that the only 4* I'm missing is Cyclops... and seeing you not get a single one of his covers with those numbers makes me a little anxious.

halirin

simonsez wrote:

blargrx wrote:

the thing that kills me is you got 3-4x of the same color cover for a toon

Kills me too, because every time someone posts their haul and it invariably shows demonstrably improbable clustering like this, I get into stupid arguments with people who don't understand probability nearly as well as they think they do. I ain't taking the bait this time.

Demonstrably improbable? Go look up 75 random digits of pi and see if those are perfectly distributed, or if there's "improbable" clustering within that 75. Try it with more than one 75 digit cluster. Maybe call some scientists and tell them you've got demonstrable proof that the deep digits of irrational numbers aren't randomly distributed. Could be a helpful discovery!

Jarvind

StevO-J wrote:

Nice haul, but reading your post has me worried for my own hoard when I decide to open it. I'm up to 62 LT's and about 950 CP, but have been waiting on day 730 (coming up on 700 now..) to see how a 5* affects my scaling. The part that has me worried is that the only 4* I'm missing is Cyclops... and seeing you not get a single one of his covers with those numbers makes me a little anxious.

Chin up, good sir. Maybe you'll get all the ones I missed!

OneLastGambit

halirin wrote:

simonsez wrote:

blargrx wrote:

the thing that kills me is you got 3-4x of the same color cover for a toon

Kills me too, because every time someone posts their haul and it invariably shows demonstrably improbable clustering like this, I get into stupid arguments with people who don't understand probability nearly as well as they think they do. I ain't taking the bait this time.

Demonstrably improbable? Go look up 75 random digits of pi and see if those are perfectly distributed, or if there's "improbable" clustering within that 75. Try it with more than one 75 digit cluster. Maybe call some scientists and tell them you've got demonstrable proof that the deep digits of irrational numbers aren't randomly distributed. Could be a helpful discovery!

Don't... Just don't. These discussions never end well for anyone. Best left alone.

puppychow

If my "casual" glance/math is correct, that's 7x5* out of 75 LTs. All I can say to THAT is . .. WOW.