Anybody else having doubts about the draw rates for LTs?

MaxxPowerz

No, this isn't another thread complaining about the lack of 5*, my apologies. Instead I would like to turn the focus towards the actual 4* that are being rewarded. The question I pose is this: do you feel like every character is being honestly represented by the supposed 4% draw rate?

I only ask this question because of the startling frequency that I (and from what I can tell many other players) are pulling these, to put it lightly, less than desirable covers. With 29 characters represented at the same draw rate, how is it that a majority of my pulls are going to Mr. Fantastic, Invisible Woman, and Chulk? Sure, you can easily write this off as the RNG nature of the game but my ability to pull these covers has become uncanny at this point. Almost 1 out of 3 to be exact. At this point I would be excited to pull Star Lord.

This got me thinking how from a business standpoint it would be to the developers advantage to withhold the more coveted characters. If they were to reward you with more bad covers players would have to increase their efforts to obtain the better covers they seek(well either that or just rage quit). This means more grinding and competing to get pvp and pve rewards, which in turn would stimulate the in game economy through increased play.

By littering the field with these...less than desirable characters the game presents another hurdle for players to overcome. To be honest, I don't know how else to explain the existence of characters like Mr. Fantastic or Chulk, seeing as how their 'usefulness' so rarely comes in to play.

As I review my roster I can't help but wonder how I have maxed out these characters covers, yet so many other sit by idly with only 1 or 2 covers each (a lot of which were obtained through PVE rewards). Out of the hundreds of LT's that I have opened how is it that I haven't managed to amass more than a couple covers for any other character? In truth, I do have a trio of 4* maxed covered, but those were obtained largely through vault purchases.

It's not that I'm greedy, I would just like to think that with all of the new characters that are being introduced I might some day get to utilize them.

fmftint

Ant Man 6
Carnage 5
Cyclops 8
Deadpool 3
Elektra 5
Ghost Rider 6
Iceman 6
Ironman 8
Invisible Woman 8
Jean Grey 7
Kingpin 5
Miles Morales 5
Mr Fantastic 7
Nick Fury 7
Nova 4
Professor X 6
Red Hulk 8
Sam Wilson 2
Spider Gwen 1
Star Lord 5
Totaly Awesome Hulk 3
Thing 9
Thor 6
Venom 8
Wolverine 6
X23 7


Went though my records and found more or less even distribution. Hate to use the standard reply around here but looks like you're experiencing confirmation bias.

MaxxPowerz

Maybe I just need to get all of my tinykitty pulls out of my system

If I must say part of what aroused my suspicion was the reluctance the devs have in handing out these covers even as progression rewards. You really have to work if you want that Red Hulk cover, but that yellow Spider Gwen? We'll just make that the season progression reward.

rawfsu

I definitely haven't opened as many LT's as you have, but I don't find your situation that unusual in general. I've been through the same thing with a number of characters on my roster. For instance, Classic Bullseye. I had him fully covered in a few months after he came out. It literally felt like his covers were dropping out of the sky. My Scarlet Witch, however, felt like it took FOREVER to get all fully covered. It's just the luck of the draw. Talking specifically about LT's, I think I may have opened 50 at this point. That number could be even less. I have three 5's, with one at two covers. According to the draw rates,I should have none. Everything is chance in this game. It is what it is.

IamTheDanger

I can understand your feelings. One thing I have noticed, as have many, many others, is that even though it's supposed to be random, when I do pull a character I want or need, I tend to pull the same color over and over. Like my Miles Morales, I have pulled 11 yellows for him, (sold most), while the other 2 abilities sit undercovered. Or my X-23. I have pulled so many of her green I got tired of selling them, so I just started a dupe. With 4clops, it's red. Fisk's black, Nova black, GR red, 4 pool red, Falcap blue. It's always the same color over and over.

I know it's all random, but it's still annoying.

JJ

jredd

JCTthe3rd81 wrote:

I can understand your feelings. One thing I have noticed, as have many, many others, is that even though it's supposed to be random, when I do pull a character I want or need, I tend to pull the same color over and over. Like my Miles Morales, I have pulled 11 yellows for him, (sold most), while the other 2 abilities sit undercovered. Or my X-23. I have pulled so many of her green I got tired of selling them, so I just started a dupe. With 4clops, it's red. Fisk's black, Nova black, GR red, 4 pool red, Falcap blue. It's always the same color over and over.

I know it's all random, but it's still annoying.

JJ

there really should be some kind of a mulligan system. maybe pay some hp to change the cover colour (seeing as the uses for hp are fewer than before...)

Chrono_Tata

That's the thing about randomness. If you were getting even cover distributions on all the characters you like, then the likelihood is that it's probably not random lol.

For me, the most uneven cover distributions I have right now are Totally Awful Hulk (5/1/1) and Bagman (5/1/5). The others are relatively even, so I'm not complaining, but I totally understand the frustration. For the longest time, I was having really poor luck with Scarlet Witch's blue.

wirius

I see no reason for them to lie about the draw rate. Random is random. It doesn't mean an even distribution.

irwando

wirius wrote:

I see no reason for them to lie about the draw rate. Random is random. It doesn't mean an even distribution.

This. Do we really need another thread questioning the RNG?

mpqr7

I pull plenty of LTs for new characters, including Venom, Miles, Gwen, etc.

HaywireII

I have managed to pull every 4* character at this point. Starlord took last one for me to get. I have Antman, Hulkbuster, Flaptain and X-23 all at 6 or 7 covers and numerous characters at 4 or 5 covers. Invisible Woman was the second 4* cover I pulled in the game and she is still at one cover. Distribution feels really random to me.

My biggest gripe is Flaptain is 5/0/1 and I have already pulled and sold a 6th yellow cover.

Uber303

i've got every 4* cover except elektra, and the last 10 or so pulls have been something that i had not rostered yet, the odds of me drawing something i haven't got have been getting slimmer and slimmer yet keep happening lol

mouser

Seems random enough to me. Jean Grey is the most common one I've pulled at 9 times. Oddly my second most common is Black Suit Spidey at 6.

carrion_pigeons

I think the real point to all of these threads is that it *shouldn't* be genuinely random. Saying "confirmation bias" is great and all, except the inconvenient outcomes remain and are very common. There ought to be ways to mitigate bad luck, and there aren't.

Sambuca

carrion pigeons wrote:

I think the real point to all of these threads is that it *shouldn't* be genuinely random. Saying "confirmation bias" is great and all, except the inconvenient outcomes remain and are very common. There ought to be ways to mitigate bad luck, and there aren't.

So maybe the real issue is that there should be more ways to get specific 4* covers other than as top placement rewards and the 1000 point PvP progression?

Sm0keyJ0e

I think we mostly remember our horrible luck. For whatever reason, I cannot completely cover Iceman. Been missing two greens for what feels like decades. But JG covers fall to me like leaves. Others in my alliance cannot get her covers to save their lives.

I also completely covered Chulk about 3 weeks after he was released and still haven't covered a dozen characters released before him.

ngoni

93 tokens 11 5* covers or 11.8%. Longest dry spell was 14 pulls. Seems to be working as intended.