Proposal: LT Tracking Project

Unknown

Druss wrote:

Reading the forums I think I'm the only one not getting screwed by % draw rates for 5*'s. (17 out of roughly 200).

17 out of 200 is roughly bottom 25th percentile at 10% rate.

fmftint

17/185 and have detailed records of each pull from the start of Season 21. I don't have detailed records from 9/10/2015 ( launch) - 11/20/2015 (start of Season 21) but I only pulled 1 5* in that time

dr tinykittylove

I do wish someone smarter than I am could calculate how many lts/lt-equivalent progressions have been available to be earned in the game so far. Still wouldn't have an exact figure, but would definitely have a better idea of my pull rates.

(It's really cos I just want to know whether my luck is Nick Fury or 4*Thor or Thing!)

Edit: Major thanks to Fiercekiwi who came up with an approximate 132 earnable LTs so far. After adding my guesttimated extras my luck is most likely somewhere between Iceman and Jean Grey, or at worst Hulkbuster.

Spencer75

I'll gladly contribute

rbdragon

I'm willing to add my token/cp pull data as well.

HxiiiK

I'll be happy to contribute, thought I've recently only started recording and came into some luck with 5*s (2 out of a 10 straight CP draw!) so the results might be rather skewed, but depending on the time frame I may be able to contribute

GrimSkald

I've started gathering the data, I'm presently up to 7 pulls (1 5* in it, from an actual token, so they themselves don't show anything weird.) Unless you add other criteria, I can pull whatever time frame is specified.

rdvargas1

count me in. I think ive logged all my LT pulls. At least the last 84 and counting.

delita007

I'm willing to contribute. I'm a mostly FtP who hits 1300 in every PvP. I've never tracked any pulls, but if you tell me the time period you want data for I'll keep track.

Unknown

Okay, I've set up the first revision of the spreadsheet: http://dropproxy.com/f/D62

Tracking period is the first three events of the next season (XXV).

How do these fields look to everyone? Anything else I should cover?

Is there a more elegant way to do this than just putting out an excel spreadsheet? Google sheets doesn't seem to be very conducive to this kind of thing (a group of anonymous individuals editing their own documents based on a shared template).

If people are happy with this, I'll put it out after the end of the season.

Kojubat

When do you want the snapshot for average level, roster slots and days played - at the start of the exercise or the end?

It might also be interesting to record any personal bias prior to recording values. Just something general like "I think I am pulling [better than/worse than/about the same as] the average."

CrookedKnight

I've got a bunch of CP saved (though some of it will be used to buy Iceman's final cover) so I'm ready to contribute.

delita007

I'm in. Do you want me to clear out any cp or tokens I have saved from before? Do you want some people to open them up all at one time, and others to open them as they get them?

Unknown

No, I think that we have to trust that tokens are tokens and cp is cp no matter when you get them (that is, they're equivalent at the time of the draw). So, saving tokens and cp may be better in that we'll have more data.

I'll add in the suggested question about the subjective experience of luck and post a new thread tonight so people can get ready to record once the new season hits.

TxMoose

I'm pulling 20 today - will post if you'd like.

edit: <sigh> here it is...

















I don't remember pulling a 5 from a cp classic. I'm sure it happened, but I don't remember it. BTW these were all 20cp classics - cp saved up over time.

GrimSkald

TxMoose wrote:

I'm pulling 20 today - will post if you'd like.

edit: <snip>

Yeah, one of the nice things about this tracking project is I will know how much I get from Classics and how much from Tokens. Btw, I just plain don't pull LTs en masse anymore, period. I've gone way too far (about 30, I think,) without pulling a single 5*. It is crushingly depressing.

That kind of luck makes me look hard at saving 720 CP (36 Classic tokens worth) and just buying the damn covers. Maybe when I'm bored with the 4* tier I will. It will be a shame to miss out on those Champion levels, though...

Cousin Simpson

TxMoose wrote:

I don't remember pulling a 5 from a cp classic. I'm sure it happened, but I don't remember it.

I pulled a red Phoenix from 20 CP last night.

BlackWidow70

I'm personally at 0 for 19 as far as getting a 5*. However my wife just opened her 3rd (all 3 were 20CP ones) and has gotten a 4* Jean Grey, a 5* OML, and just now a 5* Phoenix out of those.

TxMoose

thanks. I know they do. I just don't track all of my pulls and it has been quite a while since one came out of the cp (or tokens for that matter) for me.

westnyy2

I'd participate in this. I kept track at one point but never really followed through with it. I'd likely be labeled in the regular whale category.