odds?

Druss
Druss Posts: 368 Mover and Shaker
edited February 2016 in MPQ General Discussion
Anyone able to calculate the odds of this:

I have opened 109 Heroic tokens on the trot & not got any 3 or 4*'s

Had a look at the odds of a 3* or better & apparently it's 33%

So my odds of this are 33% x 33% x 33% .... 109 times

I'd be surprised if its not more than a million to 1

Comments

  • Calnexin
    Calnexin Posts: 1,078 Chairperson of the Boards
    Assuming the 33% statistic is right, there's a 1.1 x 10^-17 % chance of that happening. You're sub-femto scale. About 1 in 100 quadrillion.

    Buy a lotto ticket. Either you're due, or the papercut you get when the cashier hands you the ticket will be so bad it'll put you out of your misery.
  • Druss
    Druss Posts: 368 Mover and Shaker
    oooohh

    learn something new every day - sub-femto (I had to look it up!)

    Makes my **** luck worth it I guess?

    Cheers
  • Malcrof
    Malcrof Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    200_s.gif
  • Druss
    Druss Posts: 368 Mover and Shaker
    but I'm more likely to win a lightsabre than a 3* from my Heroic pulls it seems! icon_e_biggrin.gif
  • Chrono_Tata
    Chrono_Tata Posts: 719 Critical Contributor
    Assuming they were all single tokens, the actual odds of not getting >2 star pull per draw is actually 71.5% (13 2-stars with 5.5% chance each), so the odds of getting no >2 star pulls at all for 109 pulls in a row is actually 1.31E-16, approximately 1 in 7.6 quadrillion.

    For comparison, the chance of winning the jackpot in the UK National Lottery is approximately 1 in 14 million, or 1.75E-8. So your pull streak is actually less likely than winning the jackpot for the UK National Lottery twice in a row (5.11E-15).

    So let's just say I'm a little bit sceptical of your claim. :p
  • Dayv
    Dayv Posts: 4,449 Chairperson of the Boards
    Druss wrote:
    Had a look at the odds of a 3* or better & apparently it's 33%
    Actually, it's 29% if you add up all the numbers. Keep in mind, though, that those numbers are rounded. If we add a significant digit and assume the numbers are as low as possible to round up to 2% and 6% (1.5% and 5.5%), the chance could actually be just over 25%.
  • Dudemon
    Dudemon Posts: 57 Match Maker
    That just goes to show you ... it is NOT random.

    It is to certain extent, but it is controlled by them to some extent also.

    So.... think about marketing... think about stinginess.

    Can you figure out the patterns?

    Dudemon
  • Redrobot30
    Redrobot30 Posts: 348 Mover and Shaker
    At the rate the OP is going they have a better chance of pulling OML from a standard token.

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