Pack Drop Rate % is hilariously inaccurate

tombaugh
tombaugh Posts: 3
edited February 2016 in MPQ Bugs and Technical Issues
My 1st Predator and Prey Pack ever grants me a X-23 purple which is a 0.2% chance of receiving. "Wow what luck! Fantastic." 2nd is a 2 star of no importance. 3rd Pack is X-23 again in Red. I just got a 1 in 6000th chance of getting an issue nearly twice in a row - of the same character? Not that I'm complaining at all but that's actually impossible.

Comments

  • Nightglider1
    Nightglider1 Posts: 703 Critical Contributor
    tombaugh wrote:
    My 1st Predator and Prey Pack ever grants me a X-23 purple which is a 0.2% chance of receiving. "Wow what luck! Fantastic." 2nd is a 2 star of no importance. 3rd Pack is X-23 again in Red. I just got a 1 in 6000th chance of getting an issue nearly twice in a row - of the same character? Not that I'm complaining at all but that's actually impossible.

    Not impossible, as your pulls have proven. icon_e_smile.gif
  • SirLanik
    SirLanik Posts: 345 Mover and Shaker
    Sometimes, you get lucky. I've gotten three 3*s in a row from standard tokens before. Should that happen? Not usually. Can it happen? At least once!
  • Cousin Simpson
    Cousin Simpson Posts: 1,086 Chairperson of the Boards
    In the Google Play store this app has been +1'ed 60,000 times.
  • llamamancer
    llamamancer Posts: 26 Just Dropped In
    tombaugh wrote:
    My 1st Predator and Prey Pack ever grants me a X-23 purple which is a 0.2% chance of receiving. "Wow what luck! Fantastic." 2nd is a 2 star of no importance. 3rd Pack is X-23 again in Red. I just got a 1 in 6000th chance of getting an issue nearly twice in a row - of the same character? Not that I'm complaining at all but that's actually impossible.

    .2%=1/500
    Probability of X-23 in 2 of 3 packs ≈ 1/83445
    Probability of the same 4* token in 2 of 3 packs ≈ 1/3477

    So for every 3477 people that play, someone had a similar experience on their first 3 tokens.
  • Dayv
    Dayv Posts: 4,449 Chairperson of the Boards
    tombaugh wrote:
    My 1st Predator and Prey Pack ever grants me a X-23 purple which is a 0.2% chance of receiving. "Wow what luck! Fantastic." 2nd is a 2 star of no importance. 3rd Pack is X-23 again in Red. I just got a 1 in 6000th chance of getting an issue nearly twice in a row - of the same character? Not that I'm complaining at all but that's actually impossible.
    Inconceivable!

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