Opening 109 Legendaries (and 300 heroics)

moogles85

I'm a F2P player (haven't spent any money on the game), and somehow in the end game state and I've been hoarding tokens for many months and finally decided to open them all. I've earned every PvE Legendary Token and majority of the tokens awarded at 1300 in PvP. I'd say I'm a pretty hardcore player (compared to most) given that I normally place top 10 for new character releases and I finally joined a LINE shield check room last season (thanks to Nonnel and Captain Patriot).

I opened the following:
66xLegendary
43xClassic Legendary (via CP)
12x10-packs of Heroic
180xHeroic
1400xStandard (I've opened about 900, and no 4*s, I didn't bother recording these down because they are just so worthless)

My previous attempts opening legendary tokens for 5* ended up with 5/41 and 1/29 (all were done with the 3 original 5*s with a 10% chance). I ended up with a 3/0/2 SS and a 0/0/1 Phoenix. The latest pull sets me at 7/66 for legendary and 2/43 for classic legendary.

I don't even have words to say how disappointing it is to have RNG slap you in the face with a 10th Baglady...and after all that I'm still no further ahead in PvP progression, still being slaughtered by 375+ 5* characters and having to skip them.

Needless to say, I'm going to put this game on the back burner (especially PvE because the effort isn't justified by the reward) and play SWGOH - at least there you can have small progression steps with character shards.

Some "interesting" statistics:
- 10/109 were bag lady. That's 9.17% as opposed to the suggested 3.8%
- Almost 1/4 of my pulls resulted in the same 3 characters (10 invisible woman, 9 antman, 7 X-23).
- Heroic 4* pulls should be roughly 5% - which I pulled 4.33%
- For 10 pack heroics, 2* pulls were 83/120 - 69.2%
- For 1x heroics, 2* pulls were 131/180 - 72.78%
- https://d3go.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=38044 - my luck is as good as Antman (65% people are luckier than me).

List of all Legendary Token pulls:
Antman 9
Carnage 2
Cyclops 3
Elektra 6
FalCap 5
Ghost Rider 5
Goddess Thor 5
Hulkbuster 6
Iceman 4
Invisible Woman 10
Jean Grey 6
Kingpin 2
Miles Morales 5
Mr Fantastic 1
Nick Fury 1
OML 3
Phoenix 2
Professor X 3
Red Hulk 2
Spiderman 3
SS 1
Star Lord 4
TAH 2
Thing 2
Venom 5
X-23 7
XF Deadpool 4
XF Wolverine 1
Grand Total 109

For those interested, you can see all the pulls here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_31oF ... sp=sharing

scottee

9/109 on 5* isn't bad at all. Lots of people are doing far worse.

puppychow

Agreed. I tried opening 10 latest LTs today, zero 5* and only 2 keepers.

wirius

So in general you got what odds should give. Now you understand math by experience, and not just conceptually. =P 5*'s are not meant to be gotten, they are a happy accident. However, most people are terrible with odds so think they should get a maxed out 5* with a mere 100 LT pulls.

If assuming a 3% draw rate on ONE 5*, to get 13 covers of that five star, that's 3 of THAT five star's covers out of every 100 pulls.

13/3=4 1/3 So you would need around 433 LT covers to max out your five star on average assuming no duplicates.

If you can assume you will get 5 LT's a week on average, this would take 433/5=86.6 weeks There are 52 weeks in a year, so 86.6/52= about 1 year and 35 weeks, or around 1 and 2/3rds of a year.

This is of course the average and deviations can happen.

slowej25

You have 1 Deadpool and 3 XF Deadpool pulls in your list...?

_Ryu_

It is as it is... since LT introduced I may opend 20 LTs without a legendary, then 3 SS in a row and some LTs later an OML...

RNGesus isnt fair nor unfair, you always have the same % chances.

Unknown

Opened 13 Classic packs today - zero 5*. Got only 6 5* covers since the SS was introduced (more than 120 pulls).

Pylgrim

Uhm, you got 9 5*s from 109 LTs? That's barely below expected. Not sure you are going to earn sympathy from the people here I've seen opening 2 out of 70 and the such.

dr tinykittylove

This sort of thing is why I don't record my token pulls.... I'm sure I'm happier not knowing, or at least quickly forgetting, just how many iso-flavoured pulls I get. That, and also because I'm too lazy to take notes.

Spencer75

I expected this post to be about how OP didn't pull any 5 stars out of 109 LTs.

They pulled 9?! And they're complaining?

Yeesh.

This does not deserve it's own post.

"Hey everyone look at my completely normal haul!"

Stony

9 out of 109? 3 of which are the newest 5* that not many have? Oh you poor thing.

GrumpySmurf1002

- Heroic 4* pulls should be roughly 5% - which I pulled 4.33%
- For 10 pack heroics, 2* pulls were 83/120 - 69.2%
- For 1x heroics, 2* pulls were 131/180 - 72.78%

These are all reasonably close to the expected rates. Not to mention as others are saying, 9/109 on 5* is pretty reasonable as well.

The people who are 3 and 4 STDEVs from the norm, those are the people getting kicked in the pants. This is a blip within a normal distribution

simonsez

moogles85 wrote:

10 invisible woman, 9 antman

The chances of getting two or more 9s out of 109 pulls is less than 10%. Welcome to the "my pulls cluster, but people still want to believe they're 100% random" club.

tanis3303

simonsez wrote:

moogles85 wrote:

10 invisible woman, 9 antman

The chances of getting two or more 9s out of 109 pulls is less than 10%. Welcome to the "my pulls cluster, but people still want to believe they're 100% random" club.

Sort of like the 9 Kingpin covers I have sitting in my cover Q, all pulled from the same batch of LTs I got from championing my 3*s? ...random my kitty.

mmrosek

For those saying he shouldn't be complaining at 9/109, you're right, but I think this shows how much LTs suck even when you're NOT unlucky. He got the expected return and doesn't feel good about getting the best reward in the game, still doesn't have a usable 5*, and is moving on to another game because of it. That's what I took away from the story.

moogles85

mmrosek wrote:

For those saying he shouldn't be complaining at 9/109, you're right, but I think this shows how much LTs suck even when you're NOT unlucky. He got the expected return and doesn't feel good about getting the best reward in the game, still doesn't have a usable 5*, and is moving on to another game because of it. That's what I took away from the story.

Exactly this. Sure, from a numbers or statistical point of view, I pulled close to the "expected" results according to the standard deviation and I should be "happy" with my haul...but I certainly don't feel "happy". I'm not complaining about the pull rates, I'm complaining about the game in its current state.

MPQ's "end game" is their highest level reward - Legendary Tokens - a supposedly "epic" prize. It will take someone over 8 seasons to accumulate 100 legendary tokens from PvP. I've opened about 180 of these "epic" prizes since they came out and I'm not even close to making any more progression in this game than before I opened them. How is it that opening their top reward tokens are actually driving me away instead of making me excited to play. At the same time, there are other people who have opened fewer tokens who are further ahead with a usable 5* and even worse, there are many players who have opened more tokens than me and are even more "behind".

As mentioned by many other people, an end game based solely on RNG is a terrible idea, especially given that I can pull more Invisible Woman covers than all the other 5* combined when they are pretty close to the same pull rate (3.8 vs 3.3%). "Random" indeed.

Playing PvP against 5* has a certain feeling of deja vu - similar to when I first started playing PvP. Playing in 3* land fighting against the XF/GT meta (pre-nerf). Without an XF of your own, you were screwed. I was eventually able to catch up by finishing over 1k (with painful shield hops) and finish top 2 in PvE (for a single cover) to fully cover my XF (and a few weeks later see him nerfed).
Now when your entire 4* team comes across a lvl 400 5* that can take out your entire team on MATCH damage from random board cascades, how are you supposed to compete without your own 5*. The only difference this time is that I can only rely on RNG to catch up with them.

I can see why a lot of other end game players are moving elsewhere unless you're one of the lucky ones blessed by RNG.

evil panda

SWGOH!! Looks like me and my alliance mates aren't the only ones to find an, ahem, alternate diversion

Unknown

They are losing paying customers to the LT RNG. Maybe that is off set by a bump in whales, but this whole system smacks of a short term cash boost rather than long term progression. I'm 5/100+ (or there abouts), so I'll see how this season goes, but I'm half way out the door.