50/50 my butt

Unknown

gobstopper wrote:

On another note I remember IceIX stating that they didn't touch drop odds for boosts, but I haven't gotten a boost drop from a Prologue mission since R47 hit ages ago. And overall boost drops have decreased massively as well.

They definitely set prologue to drop 0 boosts for at least a week maybe two. (May be it applies to nodes with green mark only.) It used to be a random drop every 5-6 runs.

Spencer75

Phantron wrote:

My sample size of 25 matches disproves an outrageous claim because it's the guy making the outrageous claim that is supposed to provide the data, not me.

Let's say I have a random quarter, and you said you think the coin is rigged and not a fair coin, so I flip it 10 times and it landed head 6 times. That is good enough to disprove your theory because there's no reason for anyone to believe a random quarter is rigged and we didn't get any outrageous results from flipping it 10 times. If someone wants to show that the coin is indeed biased, they're free to run their own experiments to show it. The burden of proof is on them, not me.

No

Unknown

Well, here is a small sample set; the (relatively) short duration of the current subs, combined with the fact my cat eats IAMS cat food (which is expensive, and requires that I keep my job) means this data is not comprehensive - but it is a start

Not counting the first completion, which is automatic award: I will list the area, then by node, then prize followed by # of wins to get said prize. results are non-cumulative.

IF anyone wants to set up one of those fancy spreadsheets, that would be great. or if you have a different suggestion for the format as well.

India
Psylocke: 2:3, 3:2+ (this means, after first award, it took three wins to get prize two; third prize, two wins and no cookie, nothing on 4th)
Lab 1: 2:3, 3:1+
Magneto:2: 1+
Lab3: 2:1+

Algeria
Lab1: 2:3,3:2
Lab2: 2:3, 3:1+
Lab3: 2:1, 3:1+
Psylocke:2:1, 3:2, 4:1+
Magneto: 2:1+


Again, sorry for the poor sample size, and the fact the I did not grind down to completion. I did, however, get up at 4:30 to watch the gold medal hockey game, made a wonderful french toast breakfast for my wife, played a few rounds of Ticket to Ride and started on my taxes. yes, I let life get in the way. sorry.

Unknown

Vinny: Could you just give me wins / attempts for every match you recorded? I'm not worried about breakdown by how many prizes you had at the time, I just want 2 numbers: total attempts and total wins.

I recorded about 100 attempts so far, and I'll add yours to mine. Results so far are suggestive but not conclusive yet. I'll wait till I have at least twice this many samples.

Unknown

I dismiss because every complaint about this is entirely anecdotal. To previous poster's point - yes, if people really want to, start gathering data. but given what type of people would participate (i.e. people who are concerned with their pulls) I'd hazard a guess that the data would be skewed if not wholesale manipulated. If we want data, we would need to get it from the source IMHO.

Spencer75

Chops wrote:

I dismiss because every complaint about this is entirely anecdotal. To previous poster's point - yes, if people really want to, start gathering data. but given what type of people would participate (i.e. people who are concerned with their pulls) I'd hazard a guess that the data would be skewed if not wholesale manipulated. If we want data, we would need to get it from the source IMHO.

You're absolutely right, but there is an alternative.

Get the data from reliable, knowledgeable people. People like Vinny J and John Courage.

It shouldn't take too long for 2 people to get to a statistically significant sample size

Unknown

John Courage wrote:

Vinny: Could you just give me wins / attempts for every match you recorded? I'm not worried about breakdown by how many prizes you had at the time, I just want 2 numbers: total attempts and total wins.

I recorded about 100 attempts so far, and I'll add yours to mine. Results so far are suggestive but not conclusive yet. I'll wait till I have at least twice this many samples.

are you counting the initial "gimme" award in total attempts? it will skew results unless every sample is taken to all 4 awards doled out. ie a single pass through would yield 5 attempts, 5 wins

with the initial "gimme" - 17 awards, 36 attempts

without the intial "gimme" - 8 awards in 27 attempts

will collect more data tonight

Kolence

Here are my records for Argentina.

Punisher (enemy level 107~201)
played 8; won awards on 1,2,3,4 (!); game crashed on 5.

Psylocke (lvl 110~140)
played 10; won awards on 1,6,9; game crashed on 5.

Lab I (lvl 26~27)
played 8; won awards on 1,4; no losses.

Lab II (lvl 140~208)
played 7; won awards on 1,2,3,6; no losses.

Lab III (lvl 115~104 dropped down!)
played 4; won award on 3; lost on 1,2.

Hope you can use it.

Unknown

I get twice as many 20 ISO as prizes. On good days. Definitely not 50/50 on my machine.

Unknown

Yeah they need to fix this **** too.

I've played 9 straight times against a 200lvl team and all i've gotten was a token on the 1st try, 8 straight times i've gotten the 20 iso **** instead of the other rewards available.

Unknown

To get my 2nd reward on a fight, I'm going to do this fight the 5th time. So I got the glorious 20 Iso for my 2-4th attempts.

It is very rare when I get something on my second try, in fact I can remember only one case, because it was a "****, i got the 2nd loot already?" moment.

So while I should have 75% chance to get something (when I do the fight the second time), I feel I definitely have less.

(And yes, I did sacrifice a black rooster to the Mighty God of Random.)