MPQ Luck Calculator

Unknown

After Champions came out, I decided that it was time to spend my entire stash of Legendary Tokens and Command Points to try to build a usable 5*. I'd had average luck with the 60 or so LTs that I'd opened before, so I was hopeful that this would be the case again.

Nope!

From a total of 70 LTs pulled, I got exactly 2 5*s. Certainly a disappointing result, but I really had to know exactly how disappointing. So I kludged together this simple Javascript calculator that tells you exactly how lucky or unlucky you were. Go give it a try here:

http://dropproxy.com/f/CBF



(I borrowed Colognoisseur's 4* rankings from 10/19/2015 as an easy way to communicate ranking)

The calculation for these values are pretty straightforward, but sometimes a little counter to intuition. I'm moderately sure my math is sound, but I have to admit that I do not consider myself very good at math, so lemme know if I've messed up (I'm also not a Javascript programmer, so excuse the messy code). Maximum supported number of draws is 169, because 170! is too large for Javascript.

Minimizing any sampling bias is important and often hard to get around. For example, counting the largest number of consecutive failures is popular, but it's inherently problematic from a statistical standpoint because you're cherry-picking your numbers around a bad run. Similarly, counting redundant cards as failures and vaults are not going to fit into this simple model. Cases like mine, where a large, fixed number of draws are decided beforehand, are going to be pretty good.

I suspect that a lot of people also just blew all their LTs (and maybe their Heroic/Event tokens). How did everyone do?

Malcrof

84 tokens 10 5*s now, finally over 10%, i am strength Deadpool! I already have the face for it, now to work on my swordplay.

fmftint

10
103
6

Tinykitty! Your draws were just awful!

Going by Colognoisseur's ranking of 4*s, your luck was equivalent in strength to: Invisible Woman!

Details:
Less lucky than you: 4.7948873373196355%
Exactly as lucky as you: 5.2096789414947455%
More lucky than you: 89.99543372118562%

Raffoon

OP, this is great, thanks for posting it!

To the Devs: Screw you for basing 5* progression completely on random draws. It was really unlikely that this would happen to me specifically as it did, but your system all but assured it was going to happen to someone. Multiple someones. Almost 2% of your players' worth of someones.

10% Chance
90 Pulls
3 Successes (5*s)

Details:
Less lucky than you: 0.46044974818834783%
Exactly as lucky as you: 1.2276152055457312%
More lucky than you: 98.31193504626592%

GuntherBlobel

Hilarious! Nice job!

I don't know how many dozen LTs I've cashed in, but I've pulled 0 5*s. I'm surely in the category.

Tenaciousdecaf

150 pulls
6 successful

99.5% of players are more successful than me.
Someone beat that.

Dragon_Nexus

But I've already got a luck calculator. I've been using it for ages.

I think it's broken though, it always seems to come up with the same reply.

Berserk_Al

Yup! Your draws were pretty average!
Going by Colognoisseur's ranking of 4*s, your luck was equivalent in strength to: 4* Thor!

Details:
Less lucky than you: 34.86784401%
Exactly as lucky as you: 38.7420489%
More lucky than you: 26.390107090000008%

This was expected, as I have only opened 10 Legendaries until now, and the tenth was Surfer . Of course I am a low level player, and would have prefered another cover for the many 4stars I have with one or two covers.

Unknown

MPQ Luck Calculator

Percent chance of success:

10

Total Draws:

89

Total Successes (e.g. number of 5*s drawn):

3


How's My Luck?

Tinykitty! Your draws were just awful!
You are in the bottom 1.161% of all draw permutations

Going by Colognoisseur's ranking of 4*s, your luck was equivalent in strength to: Devil Dinosaur!

A theoretical person with the opposite luck as you succeeded 15 times, a difference of +12!
In the next 89 draws, you have a 0.015% chance of catching up to them.

Details:
Rate: 0.1
Total drawn: 89
Number of successes: 3
Less lucky than you: 0.501%
Exactly as lucky as you: 1.319%
More lucky than you: 98.18%

SnowcaTT

I haven't kept an exact tally of LT's opened, have to make educated guess.

On the high end, I'm rated Mr. Fantastic.
On the low end, I'm rated Devil Dinosaur (and if you enter zero, you're about as lucky as I am).

Like the other unlucky ones, it's a bummer getting attacked by OML over and over by rosters that were vastly inferior to mine three months ago, with absolutely nothing I can do to compete.

tanis3303

Congrats! Your draws were exceptional!
You are in the top 90.26% of all draw permutations

Going by Colognoisseur's ranking of 4*s, your luck was equivalent in strength to: Jean Grey!

A theoretical person with the opposite luck as you succeeded 4 times, a difference of -7!
In the next 75 draws, they would have a 0.681% chance of catching up to you.

Details:
Rate: 0.1
Total drawn: 75
Number of successes: 11
Less lucky than you: 87.372%
Exactly as lucky as you: 5.775%
More lucky than you: 6.853%

Well! How about that! I sure don't FEEL lucky tho! Haha...yes, I've pulled a good # of 5*s from a lower # of LTs than many of you folks. But the spread of them is such that I still don't have a usable 5*s character. I have a good 4* roster (Jean, HB, Fury, Carange, Deadpool, Xforce, all championed) so anything that doesn't hit harder than that list seems like a waste of ISO. Not to mention comments from many players that having a leveled 5* jacks your MMR up to the point that all you see is other 5* teams. No thanks, not until I have a 5* that can murder teams by himself. Surfer is closest at 1/1/3, but even leveled, all he'd be good for is match damage and stun protection. Phoenix is 2/1/1...also not good for anything beyond match damage. OML is 3/0/0, and therefore absolutely worthless.

I guess my point is this: Have faith guys and gals! Even when you're incredibly lucky with your pulls, you can STILL get absolutely kittyed by RNGesus. Lucky as hell, and I'm still miles and miles behind anyone that has even a 2/2/2 OML

The Viceroy Returns

For another data point, here's mine:
If I had done this about 50 pulls ago, I'd be in the upper tier for sure.
I started out somewhere around 18% 5 star success, but within my last 50+ pulls I've gotten ONE.

You are in the top 73.04% of all draw permutations

Going by Colognoisseur's ranking of 4*s, your luck was equivalent in strength to: Professor X!

A theoretical person with the opposite luck as you succeeded 8 times, a difference of -4!
In the next 102 draws, they would have a 13.898% chance of catching up to you.

Details:
Rate: 0.1
Total drawn: 102
Number of successes: 12
Less lucky than you: 67.894%
Exactly as lucky as you: 10.291%
More lucky than you: 21.815%

CaptainFreaky

+1000 rep
This is the best thing since flying cats

san

CaptainFreaky wrote:

+1000 rep
This is the best thing since flying cats

+1000 rep for understanding that the invention of flying cats has been a defining feat of the modern age, and that farming over-sized potatoes and monkeys who do not like bananas (to preserve the banana population, of course) would not have been possible were it not for this cruicial work!

chamber44

Tinykitty! Your draws were just awful!

You are in the bottom 0.258% of all draw permutations

Going by Colognoisseur's ranking of 4*s, your luck was equivalent in strength to: Devil Dinosaur!

A theoretical person with the opposite luck as you succeeded 11 times, a difference of +11!
In the next 50 draws, you have a 0.002% chance of catching up to them.

Details:
Rate: 0.1
Total drawn: 50
Number of successes: 0
Less lucky than you: 0%
Exactly as lucky as you: 0.515%
More lucky than you: 99.485%