Just won a CP in four tries

mpqr7
mpqr7 Posts: 2,642 Chairperson of the Boards
edited January 2016 in MPQ General Discussion
I just won a CP in four tries on the 4* node in pve. Was I extremely lucky, or is this the result of an update in R91 with the devs looking out for us? Did the same nice thing happen for others?

Comments

  • pheregas
    pheregas Posts: 1,721 Chairperson of the Boards
    It was luck. Had to grind down the 4* essential last night down to almost zero before I got the Command Point.
  • Punisher5784
    Punisher5784 Posts: 3,845 Chairperson of the Boards
    If it sounds too good to be true, it is.

    icon_arrow.gif Keep on grindin'
  • MojoWild
    MojoWild Posts: 765 Critical Contributor
    I've won them on the first try before...it's almost anti-climatic...
  • BlackSheep101
    BlackSheep101 Posts: 2,025 Chairperson of the Boards
    I got my last 4 on the first or second clear. It really is random. The outlier cases are just so bad that it drives people bananas.
  • udonomefoo
    udonomefoo Posts: 1,630 Chairperson of the Boards
    I got my last 2 on the first try, I was looking at my phone sideways like "that's weird" icon_lol.gif
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    4 tries is the average.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    4 is not the average.
    After 4 runs there is a 1/8 chance you have 4 rewards, 3/8 chance you have 3 rewards, 3/8 chance you have 2 rewards and 1/8 chance you have 1 reward
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    4 is the average.

    With a sample size of 10,000

    Number of Completions to (atleast) get the Command Point out
    MIN: 1
    MEAN: 4.0283
    MAX: 22
  • MojoWild
    MojoWild Posts: 765 Critical Contributor
    Hendross wrote:
    4 is the average.

    With a sample size of 10,000

    Number of Completions to (atleast) get the Command Point out
    MIN: 1
    MEAN: 4.0283
    MAX: 22

    While I've done it in 1, I also feel like I've had more than that maximum, lol
  • TxMoose
    TxMoose Posts: 4,319 Chairperson of the Boards
    I have no hard data but I feel like my average is in the 4-5X range. I have taken as many as 12 before but get a 1st time every once in a while too. I think the times you get it the first time, its easy to dismiss as an outlier and you're brain doesn't count it, but the outliers on the other end - 10-15X count extra because of the extra work it takes.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    Way to go! Now do that 119 more times, and you can get yourself a 4* cover!
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    simonsez wrote:
    Way to go! Now do that 119 more times, and you can get yourself a 4* cover!

    Sad, but true icon_e_sad.gif
  • Uncletas
    Uncletas Posts: 31 Just Dropped In
    Wish I was that lucky. Tried the final node 7 times now and after getting the first Iso reward my next six have been all 20 iso. What are the flipping odds? Great. Hopefully can try couple more times but I have a feeling I'm going to see 20 iso again and again.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    Uncletas wrote:
    Wish I was that lucky. Tried the final node 7 times now and after getting the first Iso reward my next six have been all 20 iso. What are the flipping odds? Great. Hopefully can try couple more times but I have a feeling I'm going to see 20 iso again and again.

    1.5% to get heads 6 times in a row
  • Uncletas
    Uncletas Posts: 31 Just Dropped In
    Lol. Thanks for the odds. Just in case anyone is curious streak broke at 9 attempts....got crit boost. Thing essential grounded down to 1 and still only 1 of 4 rewards. Obviously not meant to be at all
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I think I may be earning myself a reputation for incorrectly calculating the odds of things in this game, but according to my workings the chances of getting the 1CP in 7 tries are 86.7%

    If I'm right, put another way that means almost 1 in every 7 people will not get the CP on any given node in their first 7 tries.

    If I'm right, this is a lot worse than I thought it was going to be when I started doing my calculations and frankly it is unacceptable. So, in every 7 people usually 2 of those people (1 in 4) will get the CP on their first try and 1 of those 7 people won't get it in a grind down to zero?! Not cool.
  • VA5
    VA5 Posts: 66
    I've noticed on stubborn boards if you grind them down so that they only give one point I have always got the command point on that try. Only 120 to advance a 4 cover after tomorrow... ouch
  • blinktag
    blinktag Posts: 157 Tile Toppler
    Hendross wrote:
    4 is the average.

    With a sample size of 10,000

    Number of Completions to (atleast) get the Command Point out
    MIN: 1
    MEAN: 4.0283
    MAX: 22

    Some good math. The problem is with a function with so much right-sided skewness, the mean isn't terribly useful. The median is more important.

    Interestingly, if the mean is 4 with skewness, the median (50th percentile) must mathematically be quite a bit less than that. Unfortunately, those several times when it takes 8+ tries stick in our minds.
  • blinktag
    blinktag Posts: 157 Tile Toppler
    Frasaria wrote:
    4 is not the average.
    After 4 runs there is a 1/8 chance you have 4 rewards, 3/8 chance you have 3 rewards, 3/8 chance you have 2 rewards and 1/8 chance you have 1 reward

    Assuming your odds are correct...

    100% * 1/8 +
    75% * 3/8 +
    50% * 3/8 +
    25% * 1/8
    == (1 + 2.25 + 1.5 + .25) / 8
    == 5/8
    == 62.5%

    So for they odds you gave, 62,5% of people have the CP after 4 tries.

    As we know the distribution is skewed right and bounded on the left, the 50% line (median) is less than the average (mean).

    So for the odds you gave, the average of 4 seems reasonable.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    I've rerun my simulation with 100,000

    MPQ_CP_Odds_zps8tgftwau.png

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