Some other reasons besides luck the 5* might be bad for MPQ

Colognoisseur

The Legendary Tokens are going to maybe damage the game irreperably. There are three parts to my reasoning.

First the randomness of the tokens. This has been discussed to death and the only thing I will add as someone who is pulling close to average (6 out of 76) is there is something unsatisfactory for me to play hard and feel as if I am falling behind. There has been a steady trickling loss of players because of this. This can be discussed in many of the other threads on the page.

Second the devs cannot nerf the 5*’s because of the money spent by the super whales. Using myself as an example when the devs nerfed a character I spent $100 buying covers didn’t bother me because it was easy to rationalize I had got my money’s worth in the time I had to use it and win other covers. If they nerf a character that more than a few of players have spent over $10,000 for I think this is not going to be accepted with a shrug and the thought “I got my money’s worth”. Even with the CP alliances they are each spending a $1,000 or more generating cp off of purchases. With these amounts of money in play the devs can’t risk the trouble it would bring when people spent the equivalent of a new, or a used, car to have it turned into a bicycle. That means they are here to stay and as they begin to proliferate they become overbearing. Even more than pre-nerf x-Force wolverine and 4* thor. This time the nerf hammer will not be used because of the money. Which leaves the only solution to buff the 4* I think that might work but it will be a tricky balance to get that right.

Third one of the reasons they nerfed X-Force Wolvie and 4* Thor was they were so good people were skipping the 3* transition entirely selling out to just get those two characters. The same thing is going to happen here but it will be worse and very likely hurt the bottom line in discouraging the new players more quickly. It is again happening in a place where the devs can do very little because they made a poor decision by making the Legendary tokens available as PvE awards. What this has led to is I have now seen multiple rosters with no leveled 3 or 4* characters rostered but better 5* covered characters. Which is what they should do because these characters, even though it changes their scaling in both PvE and PvP, are that much better. Those players will never have to do anything other than continue to compete for PvE legendaries and pour all of their iso into the 5*. There is zero reason to buy any other covers and there is zero reason to buy other roster slots. Those players will only roster a new character if it is a favorite. They will also leave their friends behind. Those friends will look at that and realize unless they also get the draws they will quit much earlier. The devs can’t fix this because it will feel like they are taking things away and that will cause even more damage than letting it sit.

Luck, money spent, and no need to transition through 3&4* anymore each will claim players in a steady stream from both the early game, middle game, and elder game. I think a game can survive losing elder game players but I think the 5* is going to lose them players before they ever get a chance to begin to start thinking of spending money.

The new feature promised for January might be able to fix this but I think it is so insidious I suspect it will make things for one segment of players better but worse for others.

Dauthi

Great job at looking at all the topics that have been culminating and putting the puzzle together. I agree and am also worried about the state of the game. I think what this comes down to is D3 breaking our anxiety with what they have planned.

We're all ears D3

fmftint

The new feature promised for January might be able to fix this but I think it is so insidious I suspect it will make things for one segment of players better but worse for others

The question is, which segment will be the larger?

ClydeFrog76

As a player who picked the game up around a month after release, it's been really disheartening to watch it slowly but surely degenerate into purely P2W. I honestly don't know where they can go from here.

Unknown

Soon the game will be divided into four layers:

1-Super whales: with all three 5 * maximized. Will be the top 10 pvp.
2-Whales: main 4 * maximized and some 5 * in half. Will top 25 pvp.
3-Mini whales: 4 * main maximized. Will top 50/100 pvp.
4-Player free: hardcore has any chance of top 50 pvp. Otherwise only spend much time in pve to have good placement.

In other words: the winner is who pays, not the one who is the best. This is the logic of the capitalist system.

Unknown

aesthetocyst wrote:

Colognoisseur wrote:

... the devs cannot nerf the 5*’s because of the money spent by the super whales.

With all respect, Cologs ... the devs can do whatever they want.

I see altering a product after the sale as unconscionable, unethical, slimy, dirty, foul, etc. ... but it's common in the digital economy.

And with the shortsighted thinking prevalent in MBA-land, nerfing these characters would just be another day at the office. They got there money, and players got access to the digital goodies. Ownership of the contents is retained by the owner of the IP.

And why not? The bulk of the money almost certainly doesn't come from whales. It comes from the masses, $2, $5, $10, $20 at a time. For every megawhale, there are thousands of smalltimers. For the most famous example of this phenomenon, I refer you to the 2008 US Presidential election, in which the masses funding one candidate outspent and defeated the big money backing another. Or look at the economies created by crowdfunding and microloans.

Of course, only the devs have the numbers. And I'd be shocked if they shared. But I am confident that there is no room for "can't" in that sentence.

I hope the game has moved beyond nerfs. But with a whole new tier, etc., they may be back in the picture.

I fully agree. The devs will put the strategy that generates more money right now. If they want to put a teen Jean Grey better than One Above All they place because it's just a game to entertain fans and generate profit for the devs.

optimus2861

aesthetocyst wrote:

And why not? The bulk of the money almost certainly doesn't come from whales. It comes from the masses, $2, $5, $10, $20 at a time. For every megawhale, there are thousands of smalltimers.

I think you are sadly, perhaps naively, mistaken. Whales outspend the rest of the playerbase by a massive amount. I mean.. that's why they're called whales.

https://www.swrve.com/company/press-roo ... y-only-023

morph3us

optimus2861 wrote:

aesthetocyst wrote:

And why not? The bulk of the money almost certainly doesn't come from whales. It comes from the masses, $2, $5, $10, $20 at a time. For every megawhale, there are thousands of smalltimers.

I think you are sadly, perhaps naively, mistaken. Whales outspend the rest of the playerbase by a massive amount. I mean.. that's why they're called whales.

https://www.swrve.com/company/press-roo ... y-only-023

The report seems to back up Aesth's interpretation, rather than yours.

"2.3% of all players made a purchase with real money, an increase from 1.5% of players in last year’s survey."

"The typical paying player makes 3.5 purchases per month, at an average purchase price of $8.27."

"‘Mid-tier’ SKUs of $10-$20 drive the free-to-play business: contributing 21.9% of purchases and 38.6% of revenues."

kensterr

One of my alliance mate quit the game altogether because he had no luck with his legendary tokens at all... I think it was 0 or 1 5* out of 50+ tokens. And he played since the game started.

puppychow

While OP makes some wonderful points re: concerns w/ 5*, I think he is overlooking another possibility: the game is dying, which I define as a decreasing player base. If senior management at the game publisher believe that MPQ will last, for example, one more year, then they have every incentive to squeeze money out of whales and wannabe whales as much as possible. Obviously this is purely speculation on my part, but D3 has spent a lot of time/resources/manpower this year going to conventions across the country to get new players.

Here's an interesting aside. When I purchased a steam wallet card from gamestop this summer, the GS associate asked me what I planned to spend the money on. When I said MPQ, the guy had no clue what it was. Think about it. An employee at a company in the business of gaming has no clue. Perhaps the game isn't as popular among the mainstream consumers. *shrugs*

DrStrange-616

morph3us wrote:

"‘Mid-tier’ SKUs of $10-$20 drive the free-to-play business: contributing 21.9% of purchases and 38.6% of revenues."

Snipping for clarity.

It's true they account for nearly 40% of the revenue, but according to that report, the remaining 60% is brought in a tiny percentage of players - whales (0.23%).

metabelian

puppychow wrote:

Here's an interesting aside. When I purchased a steam wallet card from gamestop this summer, the GS associate asked me what I planned to spend the money on. When I said MPQ, the guy had no clue what it was. Think about it. An employee at a company in the business of gaming has no clue. Perhaps the game isn't as popular among the mainstream consumers. *shrugs*

"Traditional" video games and mobile games are fairly distinct markets, so I wouldn't read too much into that anecdote.

Akari

kensterr wrote:

One of my alliance mate quit the game altogether because he had no luck with his legendary tokens at all... I think it was 0 or 1 5* out of 50+ tokens. And he played since the game started.

I've quit 2 games so far for this reason, even one I spent over a year on and a bit of money. 3 months of absolutely 0 luck in a row will do that to you, but luck is luck, gambling is gambling, and it comes down to whether you're willing to stick with the game through the bad as well as the good.

morph3us

DrStrange-616 wrote:

morph3us wrote:

"‘Mid-tier’ SKUs of $10-$20 drive the free-to-play business: contributing 21.9% of purchases and 38.6% of revenues."

Snipping for clarity.

It's true they account for nearly 40% of the revenue, but according to that report, the remaining 60% is brought in a tiny percentage of players - whales (0.23%).

Hrm. The report doesn't make sense then, or at least the precis doesn't.

The two statements that "0.23% of all players accounting for 64% of all revenue" and "‘Mid-tier’ SKUs of $10-$20 drive the free-to-play business: contributing 21.9% of purchases and 38.6% of revenues" seem to contradict each other, and the total revenue exceeds 100% in that instance. It would be illuminating to get access to the full report.

GurlBYE

In reference to the report

2.3% of all players made a purchase with real money, an increase from 1.5% of players in last year’s survey

2.3%including free to play player, ones who download play once and leave, whales and other wise

Of paying customers, 44% made one purchase, while 20% made five or more
of the 2.3% 44% payed 1 time, 20% 5 or more

contributing 21.9% of purchases and 38.6% of revenues
21.9% of the 2.3 attribute 38.6% of revenue.

.23% of the 100% of all players that play. (only 2.3% make purchases keep track) make up 64% of the revenue.
The middle is included. Even with them included thats still a HUMONGOUS contribution. And in cases like this game, those numbers are skewed even further/

If you cross and compare with other reports whales still do make up for the largest portion and are small numbers of the player base.
This report simply spins it to present the info as new because you have to pay to see the full report.

Its not made to add up to a total. its percentages of percents

scottee

I feel like the playerbase has been slowly declining for a while now. The competitive structure requires a constant influx of new players, but MPQ never really quite hit the mainstream of games. But the F2P model also requires catering to the whales, because that's where all the revenue comes from. This dilemma is why very few succeed.

I think 5*s and Legendary Tokens are merely a symptom of the decline, not the cause.

It's actually been an interesting dynamic that they made the game generally NOT P2W. Me spending $20 does absolutely nothing to my progress. I like that because it comes down to how much you play the game. But to pay the bills, they had to include a tiny possible crack for the superwhales, which was LT's in the 40 packs and CPs for purchases. That's not very P2W, unless you're willing to whale insanely high amounts.

But it disincentivizes the new and mid range players from spending. Even $100 worth of HP doesn't really help me much. So my Google rewards app, I don't use the $20 on MPQ, I use it on Hearthstone or music instead.

I'm actually contemplating spending about $100 right now on video games, but again, it wouldn't go towards MPQ. It'd go towards a new video card and Star Wars Battlefront.

fun_and_gun

imho, the referenced link is irrelevant. it's just a sample survey and not d3's actual numbers (which we will never get to see). their analytics team know these exact numbers. all we can do is guess, so let's just stick with the op.

acescracked

kensterr wrote:

One of my alliance mate quit the game altogether because he had no luck with his legendary tokens at all... I think it was 0 or 1 5* out of 50+ tokens. And he played since the game started.

I've gotten two 5* covers from 60+ legendary tokens. It is stinky!

puppychow

metabelian wrote:

puppychow wrote:

Here's an interesting aside. When I purchased a steam wallet card from gamestop this summer, the GS associate asked me what I planned to spend the money on. When I said MPQ, the guy had no clue what it was. Think about it. An employee at a company in the business of gaming has no clue. Perhaps the game isn't as popular among the mainstream consumers. *shrugs*

"Traditional" video games and mobile games are fairly distinct markets, so I wouldn't read too much into that anecdote.

The guy was on his smartphone when I came up to the register.

puppychow

scottee wrote:

I feel like the playerbase has been slowly declining for a while now. The competitive structure requires a constant influx of new players, but MPQ never really quite hit the mainstream of games. But the F2P model also requires catering to the whales, because that's where all the revenue comes from. This dilemma is why very few succeed.

I think 5*s and Legendary Tokens are merely a symptom of the decline, not the cause.

For steam gaming, the average number of players has been holding steady at low 600ish, compared to 1.2k a year and a half ago. After the major nerf to Thorevine, the playerbase on steam simply cratered. Not even the anniversary event made a significant dent in bringing players back into the fold.

I agree that 5* tier is a symptom of the decline. The game publisher is using it to replenish the lost revenue from a lower playerbase. We'll see how desperate they are for money next year via the rate of new 5* releases.

GrumpySmurf1002

puppychow wrote:

scottee wrote:

I feel like the playerbase has been slowly declining for a while now. The competitive structure requires a constant influx of new players, but MPQ never really quite hit the mainstream of games. But the F2P model also requires catering to the whales, because that's where all the revenue comes from. This dilemma is why very few succeed.

I think 5*s and Legendary Tokens are merely a symptom of the decline, not the cause.

For steam gaming, the average number of players has been holding steady at low 600ish, compared to 1.2k a year and a half ago. After the major nerf to Thorevine, the playerbase on steam simply cratered. Not even the anniversary event made a significant dent in bringing players back into the fold.

I agree that 5* tier is a symptom of the decline. The game publisher is using it to replenish the lost revenue from a lower playerbase. We'll see how desperate they are for money next year via the rate of new 5* releases.

Given the time commitments required, this isn't exactly a Steam friendly game. I wouldn't extrapolate Steam users to the playerbase as a whole.