10 pack luck...the anti-Longshot

Handoftheking26
Handoftheking26 Posts: 183 Tile Toppler
edited November 2015 in MPQ General Discussion
After reading and speaking to many players I have determined i may have the worst luck EVER on 10 pack pulls. My last 4 have gone 8-9-10-9 on 2*s. I have gotten 1 4* and no usable 3*s (I realize this is a crapshoot). After reading/hearing about multiple 4* pulls in 10 packs was just wondering if anyone in history has worse luck than i do? It takes me quite awhile to get to my season 10 pack, so it is super frustrating to say the least. Before I dub myself "The Anti-Longshot" wanted to double check...lol icon_e_confused.gif

Comments

  • GrumpySmurf1002
    GrumpySmurf1002 Posts: 3,511 Chairperson of the Boards
    I had a run of 5 gold/40, no 4* to start the year. Was followed by 6-7 gold the following pack.
  • Punisher5784
    Punisher5784 Posts: 3,845 Chairperson of the Boards
    Nothing is worse than when I purchased a Stark Salary and bought a 40 pk: viewtopic.php?style=1&f=7&t=32721&hilit=legendary

    I did not get any needed 3*'s and no 4*s
  • XandorXerxes
    XandorXerxes Posts: 340 Mover and Shaker
    I'm up to 6 10-packs with only an IW to show for it. I don't keep track of 3*s though, so I might have gotten some decent 10-packs just with nothing I really needed.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Aren't the odds on a 10pack like, 1.4 Golds on average?

    Those pulls don't sound too bad.

    I remember grinding PVP for a while to get my first ten pack, though.

    No golds crashed me on the game hard for a while. Others have been better in terms of Golds, if not always the ones I want. But eh, dems the breaks.
  • jffdougan
    jffdougan Posts: 733 Critical Contributor
    Don't know if it ever got stickied, but I put together a post a while back with the distribution odds.
  • rdvargas1
    rdvargas1 Posts: 77 Match Maker
    Just had my first shutout on a 10-pack. 10 2*s. first time that's ever happened, and it's not a good feeling. I'm taking comfort in the fact that next time I'll get 3-4 gold with at least 1 4*. Its the RNG gods at work.
  • The Bob The
    The Bob The Posts: 743 Critical Contributor
    It's funny how your (not "YOUR," just "your" in general) expectations can take a while to change with these. I've had a fully-covered 3* roster for a few months now, and I've been through one or two shutouts and at least one single-gold open, but generally it's decent. I just opened my pack for the current season, though, and got four 3*s and a 4* (okay, it was Mr. F, but still) and was PISSED. Took a minute to remember how stoked I would have been by that six months back.

    The odds haven't changed ... I'VE changed, man...
  • BlackSheep101
    BlackSheep101 Posts: 2,025 Chairperson of the Boards
    Yeah, I'm down to my last handful of 3* covers, so I'm quickly getting used to seeing gold and then hearing sad trombone music. On the bright side, I need so many 4*s that legendary tokens are nearly universally useful. So I've got that going for me, which is nice.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Colwag already pointed it out, but it's not your luck, it's the odds themselves.

    1.4 Golds out of 10 is obviously not worth chasing with anything approaching intent. If you happen into a 10-pack, great, you take your 1-2 possibly useful >2*s and move on, but trying to win one? Meh.

    And actually buying one? Uhm, yeah. No thanks.

    Sucks, but the reality is that 1-2 is expected, and everything above are just folks with more luck.

    DBC
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I have had the worse run with 10 packs. I'm at the point where I am now saving them and opening them 2 at a time.
  • jredd
    jredd Posts: 1,387 Chairperson of the Boards
    my last 3 10 packs i got 3 usable 3*, 3 other not usable 3* and no 4*.
  • jffdougan
    jffdougan Posts: 733 Critical Contributor
    colwag wrote:
    Aren't the odds on a 10pack like, 1.4 Golds on average?

    Those pulls don't sound too bad.

    I remember grinding PVP for a while to get my first ten pack, though.

    No golds crashed me on the game hard for a while. Others have been better in terms of Golds, if not always the ones I want. But eh, dems the breaks.

    The expected value may have been 1.4 gold covers once upon a time, although I didn't just crunch numbers on anything that far back.

    The last time I updated the odds was around the beginning of Season 16. As of that date, the expected number of gold covers in a Heroic 10-pack is 3.2. The most likely number of 4* characters is 0 (roughly 70% chance), roughly a 26% chance of 1 4* character, negligible chance of more than 2 of them.
  • SnowcaTT
    SnowcaTT Posts: 3,486 Chairperson of the Boards
    It's been at least six (and probably 8+) since I've pulled a 4* from a ten-pack...I'm starting to believe they are simply a myth.
  • Lemminkäinen
    Lemminkäinen Posts: 378 Mover and Shaker
    Punisher5784 wrote:
    Nothing is worse than when I purchased a Stark Salary and bought a 40 pk: viewtopic.php?style=1&f=7&t=32721&hilit=legendary

    I did not get any needed 3*'s and no 4*s
    You got one needed 3* and two usable ones.

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