PvE Prodigal Sun: November 5th - November 12th, 2015

13

Comments

  • Rojas66
    Rojas66 Posts: 86 Match Maker
    Sitting at 3rd in my bracket right now with 59K and 1 day and 21 hours left. Should be able to easily get the Legend token but may push on if I have a reasonable chance to get top 2 because I badly need more covers for my Jean.
  • stochasticism
    stochasticism Posts: 1,181 Chairperson of the Boards
    Are there any CP nodes in Hell's kitchen other than the kingpin essential?
  • Cousin Simpson
    Cousin Simpson Posts: 1,086 Chairperson of the Boards
    stochasticism wrote:
    Are there any CP nodes in Hell's kitchen other than the kingpin essential?

    Yes, the final one. So far, every sub has had two CP nodes: the 4* essential, and the last node.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Any word on what the CP odds are for the kingpin nodes? I know it has got to be somewhere worse than 1 in 20. But better than 1 in 100. It really should not take more than 20 tries to get 1 of 4 rewards.

    How many is the worst number of times has it taken people to get the CP on a node? I ribbon 25 was my worst, 10-15 on average.

    It is stupid when you get it ground down to 1 point and you keep getting 20iso for a dozen tries.
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    CrashCrash wrote:
    Any word on what the CP odds are for the kingpin nodes? I know it has got to be somewhere worse than 1 in 20. But better than 1 in 100. It really should not take more than 20 tries to get 1 of 4 rewards.

    How many is the worst number of times has it taken people to get the CP on a node? I ribbon 25 was my worst, 10-15 on average.

    It is stupid when you get it ground down to 1 point and you keep getting 20iso for a dozen tries.

    Node rewards are always 50% chance of getting 1 of the 4 node rewards and 50% chance of getting 20iso.

    Might seem like it's not because you keep getting 20iso but just remember that if you flip a coin 20 it's pretty likely it will be heads everytime despite this playing against what would seem like common sense.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    OneLastGambit wrote:
    Node rewards are always 50% chance of getting 1 of the 4 node rewards and 50% chance of getting 20iso.
    ...after the first reward is given out. The first time you win a node, you have a 100% chance to get one of the four rewards.
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    Quebbster wrote:
    OneLastGambit wrote:
    Node rewards are always 50% chance of getting 1 of the 4 node rewards and 50% chance of getting 20iso.
    ...after the first reward is given out. The first time you win a node, you have a 100% chance to get one of the four rewards.


    Thanks for the correction. Was too focussed on making sure I finish t10 in hells kitchen - t1 must have ground everything down to 1 to get top place because I got 10 with some serious last minute grinding.
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    Oh my lord, I forgot how much of a health pack drain Thunderbolts Mountain is....Every node is a feature character node, with a goon - all of which are OP
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Might seem like it's not because you keep getting 20iso but just remember that if you flip a coin 20 it's pretty likely it will be heads everytime despite this playing against what would seem like common sense.

    20 heads and 0 tails has a probability of 9.5367431640625e-7. That is a very tiny number.

    If each win has a 50% chance of something useful, and 50% of 20iso, getting a long string of 20iso and not the CP reward is very unlikely.

    How sure is the forum about the 50% odds? Maybe it is 100% after the first win, 50% after the second win to get something useful, then 25% after you have gotten 3 of the rewards, and then 10% odds of getting your final reward, and 90% 20iso.

    If it is 50%, I am on a statistically improbable roll, and considering comments on the forum or in alliance, there are lots of other people beating the odds too.
  • Rojas66
    Rojas66 Posts: 86 Match Maker
    Just completed first clear on the last day, Thunderbolts Mountain, and got 7460 points. Six of the nodes are not repeatable but still there are plenty of points to get on the last day. Sitting at 83K overall so will get the Legend token after the next clear.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Unpopular opinion time.

    I hope they never, EVER put CoPos in the PvE nodes again… unless they finally, after over a year of vague statements apparently attempting to mollify the forum, D3 actually does something about the 20ISO node "rewards."

    Grinding a difficult node 10+ times AFTER hitting 1 point is the antithesis of fun, and yet, thanks to the basic human predilection for addictive behaviors/desire for completion, you either finally get your single CoPo (which always feels less than worth the effort expended), or deal with the empty feeling of trying for nothing… AGAIN.

    DBC
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    CrashCrash wrote:
    Might seem like it's not because you keep getting 20iso but just remember that if you flip a coin 20 it's pretty likely it will be heads everytime despite this playing against what would seem like common sense.

    20 heads and 0 tails has a probability of 9.5367431640625e-7. That is a very tiny number.

    If each win has a 50% chance of something useful, and 50% of 20iso, getting a long string of 20iso and not the CP reward is very unlikely.

    How sure is the forum about the 50% odds? Maybe it is 100% after the first win, 50% after the second win to get something useful, then 25% after you have gotten 3 of the rewards, and then 10% odds of getting your final reward, and 90% 20iso.

    If it is 50%, I am on a statistically improbable roll, and considering comments on the forum or in alliance, there are lots of other people beating the odds too.

    It's been tested by another forum poster and the odds are correct.

    The first time you complete the node you are 100% likely to get one of the 4 node rewards (thanks for the correction). Everytime after that there is a 50% chance of the node reward and 50% chance of iso. For a specific reward you would have to factor in that it is only 1 of 3 possible rewards (after the first win) so the odds would then be 50% chance of iso and 16.66 chance of any particular node reward.

    odds don't work as the human brain expects them too, using the coin analogy the odds would state 10 flips would give you 5 heads 5 tails, give it a try and you'll find that does not happen. Odds of things happening are difficult thing for many because they don't take into account the length of time the odds are being tested for. In the coin analogy the test period would actually be an infinite time span in which equal number of heads and tails would be shown. In the case of the iso and the CP if you have not had an even spread, you've simply not tested for long enough.

    It sucks but trust me it is accurate.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    OneLastGambit wrote:
    It's been tested by another forum poster and the odds are correct.

    The first time you complete the node you are 100% likely to get one of the 4 node rewards (thanks for the correction). Everytime after that there is a 50% chance of the node reward and 50% chance of iso. For a specific reward you would have to factor in that it is only 1 of 3 possible rewards (after the first win) so the odds would then be 50% chance of iso and 16.66 chance of any particular node reward.

    odds don't work as the human brain expects them too, using the coin analogy the odds would state 10 flips would give you 5 heads 5 tails, give it a try and you'll find that does not happen. Odds of things happening are difficult thing for many because they don't take into account the length of time the odds are being tested for. In the coin analogy the test period would actually be an infinite time span in which equal number of heads and tails would be shown. In the case of the iso and the CP if you have not had an even spread, you've simply not tested for long enough.

    It sucks but trust me it is accurate.

    It always fascinates me what the human brain does with statistical probabilities, considering how simplistic and immutable the actual base equations are, especially regarding the imaginary "durational compounding" of the principle. 2 possible outcomes = 50% forever, but somehow we find ways to theorize ways in which the weighting actually changes due to some outside influence. I guess this is largely why the lottery and gambling in general actually manage to make money for those offering either opportunity to the folks willing to take part in the activities. icon_e_wink.gificon_lol.gif

    You mention the concept of infinity, which arguably underpins all of SP theory. I would be curious if there was a method by which researchers could study the human tendency to disregard the connection between statistical probability and the principle of infinity vis-à-vis the imagined "loading" of odds with the passage of time, as in someone being "due" to achieve an outcome based on colloquialisms like "the odds."

    It's a bizarrely inverse/paradoxical concept on some level for sure, which is perhaps at the heart of much of the imagined discrepancy between what we expect and what we get.

    DBC
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I'm not saying that it is impossible, but to get 20iso so many times in a row, is almost like someone keep betting on "black" at roulette and winning (or losing) 10 times in a row. Or 15 times. Or 20 times. (Technically Roulette black/red, even/odd, high/low are not quite 50/50, but more ~46/54 (assuming the wheel is balanced properly)).

    It definitely can happen, as each event is not dependant on the results of the last. Each event has 50% odds, but the string of results is not statistically likely.

    When the fourth reward is a boost, nobody is grinding the node at 1 point a dozen times to get that final boost. When the fourth reward is a single command point, nobody should have to grind a dozen times at 1 point to get a command point.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    For what it's worth someone did a simulation over in Theories and statistics, and their conclusion was that on average it takes four tries to get the command point.
  • Akari
    Akari Posts: 492 Mover and Shaker
    I've yet to take more than 12ish tries to get the CP from a node yet, but the saddest one was yesterday's sub, where I did 1 clear, then 8 clears at 20 iso, then the CP. That's pretty nutty luck, but I'm just glad these nodes aren't lvl395 Gorgon hard.
  • nyck1118
    nyck1118 Posts: 106 Tile Toppler
    Just pulled a kingpin cover out of my heroic 10 pack...should I pop him open to get the essential node and command point for this last round?
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    nyck1118 wrote:
    Just pulled a kingpin cover out of my heroic 10 pack...should I pop him open to get the essential node and command point for this last round?
    Are there any compelling reasons why you would not want to do that? Kingpin is pretty good - not top tier, but definitely upper half at least. You probably want to roster him at some point anyway, and now is as good a time as any.
  • ZeiramMR
    ZeiramMR Posts: 1,357 Chairperson of the Boards
    Does the final Thunderbolts Mountain sub also have only two CP nodes? I managed to get the Kingpin and top arm nodes pretty early with half the other nodes still to do and I have been taking this event off from grinding.
  • Cousin Simpson
    Cousin Simpson Posts: 1,086 Chairperson of the Boards
    ZeiramMR wrote:
    Does the final Thunderbolts Mountain sub also have only two CP nodes? I managed to get the Kingpin and top arm nodes pretty early with half the other nodes still to do and I have been taking this event off from grinding.
    Unless I overlooked something myself, there are only two nodes with CP awards.

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