MPQ Forum Contest - C0d3s 4 N0d3s Discussion

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Comments

  • TheOncomingStorm
    TheOncomingStorm Posts: 489 Mover and Shaker
    OJSP wrote:
    I've got some free time this weekend.. so I've been pointing out to people that:
    IceIX wrote:
    I'll give a slight hint and say that guessing a four digit number is probably a bad idea.
    Because, you know.. unless that statement was a ruse, there's no reason to guess a value more than 999..
    and people can still change the answer before the deadline.
    Unless this means someone actually played more than 9999 times.. icon_lol.gif

    That'd be a lot of health packs. Someone must have been hoarding them all year for anniversary week.
  • Pylgrim
    Pylgrim Posts: 2,332 Chairperson of the Boards
    Any chances that players that have none of those consoles and win, could get more mobile rewards? Pretty please?
  • Wooodd
    Wooodd Posts: 187 Tile Toppler
    Pylgrim wrote:
    Any chances that players that have none of those consoles and win, could get more mobile rewards? Pretty please?

    I second this. Perhaps a logans loonies. Equal value and all that. Please consider making this optional.
  • DFiPL
    DFiPL Posts: 2,405 Chairperson of the Boards
    Seeing a few numbers being guessed by multiple contestants.

    That's gonna make things weird when prize time rolls around if one of the numbers with multiple "yeah yeah this" backers ends up being the winner.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Pylgrim wrote:
    Any chances that players that have none of those consoles and win, could get more mobile rewards? Pretty please?

    The fact that they're willing to give the code to somebody else, while still letting you have your free cover/Legendary/whatever is pretty cool, instead of just dumping you with a code you'll never use.

    Do you really want to deny that code from somebody who'd really want it? icon_e_sad.gif
  • Pylgrim
    Pylgrim Posts: 2,332 Chairperson of the Boards
    colwag wrote:
    Pylgrim wrote:
    Any chances that players that have none of those consoles and win, could get more mobile rewards? Pretty please?

    The fact that they're willing to give the code to somebody else, while still letting you have your free cover/Legendary/whatever is pretty cool, instead of just dumping you with a code you'll never use.

    Do you really want to deny that code from somebody who'd really want it? icon_e_sad.gif

    Where did they say they would do this? While I am not opposed to it and it is better than the alternative, I'd still prefer to get the full worth of the prize for myself, which anyone with those consoles will be getting.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Pylgrim wrote:

    Where did they say they would do this? While I am not opposed to it and it is better than the alternative, I'd still prefer to get the full worth of the prize for myself, which anyone with those consoles will be getting.


    From the OP of the actual contest thread:

    "*Any Agents that do not have a game console or otherwise do not wish to receive a download code may instead pass that prize onward to the next closest (11+) Agent."

    And yeah, I'm a bit bummed the actual Mobile rewards are, at most, "One cover of your choice + 1000HP + 1 Legendary" for first place, and anything below third is "No HP, just 1 Legendary token"

    Which is better then nothing, but still. I wanna get more HP, darnit.
  • meekersX
    meekersX Posts: 334 Mover and Shaker
    So, I was interested in the statistics of guesses so far in order to better inform my guess. The following is based on the first 754 guesses I've recorded.

    The average of all guesses is 937.475. Assuming IceIX's hint is accurate, we should only include guesses less than 1000. This gives an average of 644.952.

    The most common guess is 777, guessed 17 times so far. It's also therefore, by far, the worst guess as you will only win if it is the actual amount. I, for one, hope that 777 is correct just to see 17 first place prizes given away, and no others. Likewise, 666 is a poor guess having been guessed 9 times so far.

    One strategy might be to guess a number that covers the largest range of possible answers. The largest possible coverage is at the lowest end of the range. Guessing 1-141 would win a top 10 prize if the actual amount is 1-281, a range of 280. I'm quite certain that the actual amount will be larger though. All possible amounts seem well covered now, so that it is difficult to cover a range of more than a 20 with a guess. A few exceptions are guessing 399 to cover 388-410, 399 to cover 389-411, and 800 to cover 790-811. There are some larger ranges covered beyond 900, but I'm excluding them.

    Using that strategy, I'm split between using 608, 641, or 659 as my guess. I wish I had a better idea of what statistical methods I could use to derive a better estimate by another strategy.
  • Coppertouret
    Coppertouret Posts: 169 Tile Toppler
    If I do win, I hope they let me use the legendary before picking my cover. I'd hate to get the last cover I need from both.
  • Cable_eel
    Cable_eel Posts: 33 Just Dropped In
    I graphed the first 20 pages (about half the total) worth of guesses. Excluded guesses >1000 based on Ice's hint.
    It's pretty obvious we have no idea what the answer is going to be. The slope is very steady from about 400 to 900. There is a slight clustering in the high 700's, partially due to all the gamblers who picked lucky 777.
    Anniversary%20guesses_zpsi2icilx0.jpg
  • meekersX
    meekersX Posts: 334 Mover and Shaker
    Idea shamelessly stolen from cable_eel. Includes all 779 current guesses between 1-999.

    jGcZJKj.png

    Raw data for anyone to play with, includes 904 latest guesses: http://pastebin.com/WVP0uUV2.
  • babygirl1234
    babygirl1234 Posts: 19
    My guess is 444
  • CallTheStorm
    CallTheStorm Posts: 63 Match Maker
    What if a player keep retreating?does it count as a battle?
  • Mezzyjezzy
    Mezzyjezzy Posts: 1
    Because 789!
  • thetimelord
    thetimelord Posts: 13 Just Dropped In
    IceIX wrote:
    GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:
    Can I get clarification just in case - this is strictly PvP battles played right? Doesn't include Galactus/Simulator?
    Correct. Versus only, no PVE events.
    ****, I factored in PVE into my guess.
  • Philly79
    Philly79 Posts: 422 Mover and Shaker
    So when are they releasing the results?
  • udonomefoo
    udonomefoo Posts: 1,630 Chairperson of the Boards
    Philly79 wrote:
    So when are they releasing the results?

    Last time they released results and announced winners at the same time. So they have almost 50 pages of entries to go through first.
  • Coppertouret
    Coppertouret Posts: 169 Tile Toppler
    udonomefoo wrote:
    Philly79 wrote:
    So when are they releasing the results?

    Last time they released results and announced winners at the same time. So they have almost 50 pages of entries to go through first.


    50 pages shouldn't really be all that much with the forum search option. Search: value x, x+-1,... Until you get 10 results.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Hi all

    I've been otherwise occupied for the last couple of weeks so pardon my ignorance but has this been finalised yet? Did I win? icon_lol.gif
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Never mind. I found the winners thread.

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