Enough with the shark jumping - a pack of solutions.
The addition of 5* characters has really jumped the shark.
The last 3 seasons have seen an influx of characters that we need to grind and grind again for since they will be required for Essential matches in the near future. With the addition of each new character, the random draw rate for useful covers drops a little bit each time. Having finished my 3* transition and begun my 4* transition (as an occasional small-amount pay-to-play - call it $25 every few months), the only way to keep random draws exciting in the last 6 months was to make a bet with myself that the next Heroic/Event token drawn would be a 2*. At least that way I would win every time I lost.
Standard tokens aren't even worth the time spent drawing them.
I began keeping a spreadsheet of my random draws. Here's the breakdown (decimals rounded down).
Standard tokens: 73% 1*, 19% 2*, 7% 3*. 0% usable. Not one cover that I could use.
Heroic tokens: 91% 2*, 8% 3*, 0% 4*. One single usable cover.
Event tokens: 84% 2*, 8% 3*, 8% 4*. Event token stats on the spreadsheet look great until I explain that 1/2 of those 4* pulls were for my already maxed Invisible Woman green.
Legendary Tokens: 100% 4*, 0% 5*. Here's where things should be great. Nope - 1/2 of my Legendary token pulls were for my already maxed X-Force.
So, beginning my 4* transition, I'm in kind of a tight spot. The only realistic way to progress is with Legendary Tokens (which turn out to be similar to Looney Tunes jack-in-the-boxes with boxing gloves on a spring inside), but the scaling ensures that unless I neglect my job and family and any random spare minute I may have, I'm unlikely to earn those.
Today really took the cake - of 20 Galactus Hungers/Anniversary token pulls, every single draw was a 2*. Wow - 20 in a row - a perfect run for those little bets with myself.
Now lots of people are griping about the poopy draw rates for the anniversary (continuing to pee in the beer barrel doesn't improve the contents) but outside of the monthly balance sheet, D3 does not seem to be keen on math (and hoping that the players can't be bothered). Here's what I realized some time ago and why I no longer buy tokens with HP (aside from the fact that extra slots cost me 1000HP each):
The draw rate for a usable cover (a 4* cover in my case) is a paltry 0.3%, going all the way up to 1.5% for event tokens. Many players will do some simple multiplication and determine that if they draw 100 times from those tokens, they should get between 3 and 15 of those covers. The keyword here is "should". Although it's unlikely. Because the players are not drawing from a finite pool of covers (where each draw eliminates that selection from future drawing), each draw is mutually exclusive. Each draw is made at a 0.3~1.5% chance in the same way that each spin of the roulette wheel is mutually exclusive and betting on the same number won't increase the odds that it's "due" to come up - betting on the same number 99 times in a row has the exact same odds as betting on a random number 99 times in a row. Every time a single token is drawn, you can, at the best, expect a 3/200 chance of drawing the 4 star - only slightly better than the chances that you are a direct descendant of Ghengis Khan if you are a male (1/200).
When you factor in that within that 0.3~1.5% margin, some of those covers will also be unusable (having fully covered that character), you may as well be playing roulette where the chance of hitting any number is 1/36 - a 2.7% chance - double that of the chances of drawing a single usable 4* cover if you currently have NO 4* characters in your roster. I don't know what the whales have dumped into the game to max their 5*s at even worse odds (having many or most of their 4*s fully covered), but it must be a staggering amount. Enough that D3 has renewed the "let them eat cake" policy for the rest of us month after month.
So whales have a chance at steady progression by deign of their wallets. Those already finished a 4* transition have a slower chance at steady progression via easily earned PVP Legendary tokens and everyone under that has their progression throttle set to "meagre/improbable". Adding 1* Spidey was "neat" - for the first day until everyone had him fully covered. Now he just waters down the pool.
So besides beginning the game from Day 1 with everything fresh and new and every random draw a shiny new usable cover, there's only 1 guaranteed method for progression. It requires stockpiling Deadpool Daily tokens and waiting until the pool of covers is revealed to have two 4*s (and possibly 3*s) that are usable by you. In this case, the pool is finite (and known) and each garbage draws eliminates that selection for the next draw. The drawback here is that it requires a minimum of 300 days to complete (stockpiling of 600 tokens - 300 for each of Sweet and Savory at 2 per day) and then waiting until the optimum selection rolls around. Then, just spam the draw button until you get the top 3 prizes - two usable 4*s and a chance at another useful 4* with the Legendary token. Sadly, that's what I'm reduced to - stockpiling for 300 days with the sole purpose of getting 4 guaranteed usable covers and gambling that the two Legendary draws will be beneficial. Be warned - wait until you have enough tokens to buy everything in the vault - a while back, I thought 60 might be enough. The 40 health packs did nothing to allay my rage at 30+ 2*s and ISO and the Legendary token which earned yet another unusable X-Force.
At this point, had I saved them and created roster space, I'd be 1 cover short of a second X-Force (a decent option - pre-nerf), have 4 maxed Hulk and 3 maxed GSBW among multiples of others.
The Anniversary event shows just how much players are appreciated with draw rates even worse than a standard Heroic token. The chance of getting ANY 4* is at a combined 1.6% (I discount the Devil Dino increased drop rate since, though they still haven't admitted it, we all know he's kind of a joke character). The chance of getting a 2* from those tokens is over 74%. The "Daily Deal" for these tokens is 50HP or regular price, 500HP. Is that reasonable for a 75% chance of drawing a 2*? Is that something to get excited for as an Anniversary event? I pity the people who spent money on HP (clever work - having the sale begin before revealing what the "prizes" would be). The reasoning being that "players will be getting so many of them that there was a need to balance it".
My advice to anyone planning on marrying a member of the D3 dev team: don't. For your anniversaries, you'll hear all week how you'll be going out to some awesome restaurant then, when you get there, your beloved will take all of the good stuff off of your plate and make you pay for the whole fiasco.
By now, the cat-calls should be coming in - I haven't said anything new - just rehashed the complaints of dozens of others. But I do offer some possible solutions. They won't "fix" the game - there's no un-jumping the shark - but they could mend it and still maintain the all-important bottom line.
1. Allow trades within alliances. Everybody has had this discussion at some point within an alliance - when I draw my 34th GSBW, rather than selling it, how about letting me send it to an alliance member who can actually use it? Lower level players who would get spanked with the scale-hammer by adding a randomly dropped 5* could offer it up within an alliance and be given a bounty of useful covers that will allow them to build their roster. I'll admit that trading-only alliances will likely pop up (not sure if that's a good or bad thing) and some will likely start up alt accounts for "cover-mining" (I expect a waste of time, but hey - D3 can brag about inflated user numbers). Hell, let people trade undrawn tokens for the sadists who actually enjoy the "gamble".
2. Allow sell-backs. When an event token is priced at 200HP and my odds of getting a useful drop are 1/1000, can I really be expected to push that button with bated breath? Hardly - my thoughts are mostly, "C'moooon 2* - papa needs 250 ISO." Instead of even drawing for useless stuff, what about players being given the option to sell those tokens. Not to steal D3's bread and butter (fake, digital, arbitrarily valued bread and butter), offering the player 1/2 or 1/4 the HP it would normally cost to buy the token and players could save up for things they actually use (roster slots). Yes, I know several tokens have a chance to win HP - but if you believe that spending 200HP and winning 100HP back is good fortune (devs, I'm looking at you here since you seem to genuinely believe this), please send me a private message - I will give you the same odds for any amount you wish to wager. Once your funds have been transferred to me, I will send you half of those funds back along with a shiny "Congratulations" card.
3. Allow trade-ins. The draw rates for single tokens are nonsense no metter what stage you are at in the game. But the draw rates for 10 and 40-packs are many times better - all the way into "nearly good" territory. Yet, if one acquires more than 10 single tokens, they are still drawn for at the lower draw rate. How about, if a player manages to earn more than 10 single tokens in an event, he can trade them - straight across - no gain or loss - for a 10 pack. Improve on this - allow people to stockpile. When an event finishes, any unclaimed tokens are converted to equivalent tokens for the next event. There are often events where I earn tokens that, looking at the available prizes, no matter what is drawn, it will be unusable by myself. If I can't gift them to alliance members or sell them back for a portion of their HP "value", why not let me use it in the next draw where something useful may be available or save them up for the improved draw rate (having accumulated 10 or 40).
4. My last possible solution: Scale the tokens the same way events are scaled. I'm shifting to 4* territory. I have ridiculous grinds for every PVE and still have to rotate my 3* roster and shield hop while fending off teams of maxed 4*s in order to place highly in PVP. Is a steady diet of 1 & 2* draws going to keep me interested? Not bloody likely (unless I could find an insane bookie to let me place money on those bets I make with myself). How about when a player has fully covered a tier, the drop rates shift?
For example - a player new to the game has fully covered every 1* character. The draw rates for 1* covers now diminishes by a combined 50% with that percentage now being made up in a higher draw rate for 2* covers. This works all the way up - a player can still draw covers for fully covered characters (still allowing them to adjust the build), but it allows them a reasonable expectation of progression. Further, the meager drops-in-the-bucket ISO values are increased for unusable covers that will be necessarily sold - making a 3* transition from the 1 & 2* chaff offered currently must have people at that stage grating their teeth - at the 4* transition stage, I'm going to require a mouth-guard (and no, 20 ISO is not a "reward" when the 4 main rewards have not been awarded for a repeatable PVE match - its more like slowing down for a hitchhiker and then throwing your drink at them and speeding off. But that's another matter).
Now - flay me alive and tear my ideas to shreds or, better yet, improve upon them. I realize that there is very little chance D3 will listen and positive changes will come. Their game plan seems to be an ever-escalating series of shark jumps. After submitting this post on the forums and the subreddit, I will also increase the chances of positive changes happening by printing it out, shredding the paper, throwing half of it into the wind and torching the other half as a burnt offering - both for no particular reason, but at least the odds of them being adopted by D3 will be equivalent to a usable draw from a standard token (0% to as many decimal places you care to name).
The last 3 seasons have seen an influx of characters that we need to grind and grind again for since they will be required for Essential matches in the near future. With the addition of each new character, the random draw rate for useful covers drops a little bit each time. Having finished my 3* transition and begun my 4* transition (as an occasional small-amount pay-to-play - call it $25 every few months), the only way to keep random draws exciting in the last 6 months was to make a bet with myself that the next Heroic/Event token drawn would be a 2*. At least that way I would win every time I lost.
Standard tokens aren't even worth the time spent drawing them.
I began keeping a spreadsheet of my random draws. Here's the breakdown (decimals rounded down).
Standard tokens: 73% 1*, 19% 2*, 7% 3*. 0% usable. Not one cover that I could use.
Heroic tokens: 91% 2*, 8% 3*, 0% 4*. One single usable cover.
Event tokens: 84% 2*, 8% 3*, 8% 4*. Event token stats on the spreadsheet look great until I explain that 1/2 of those 4* pulls were for my already maxed Invisible Woman green.
Legendary Tokens: 100% 4*, 0% 5*. Here's where things should be great. Nope - 1/2 of my Legendary token pulls were for my already maxed X-Force.
So, beginning my 4* transition, I'm in kind of a tight spot. The only realistic way to progress is with Legendary Tokens (which turn out to be similar to Looney Tunes jack-in-the-boxes with boxing gloves on a spring inside), but the scaling ensures that unless I neglect my job and family and any random spare minute I may have, I'm unlikely to earn those.
Today really took the cake - of 20 Galactus Hungers/Anniversary token pulls, every single draw was a 2*. Wow - 20 in a row - a perfect run for those little bets with myself.
Now lots of people are griping about the poopy draw rates for the anniversary (continuing to pee in the beer barrel doesn't improve the contents) but outside of the monthly balance sheet, D3 does not seem to be keen on math (and hoping that the players can't be bothered). Here's what I realized some time ago and why I no longer buy tokens with HP (aside from the fact that extra slots cost me 1000HP each):
The draw rate for a usable cover (a 4* cover in my case) is a paltry 0.3%, going all the way up to 1.5% for event tokens. Many players will do some simple multiplication and determine that if they draw 100 times from those tokens, they should get between 3 and 15 of those covers. The keyword here is "should". Although it's unlikely. Because the players are not drawing from a finite pool of covers (where each draw eliminates that selection from future drawing), each draw is mutually exclusive. Each draw is made at a 0.3~1.5% chance in the same way that each spin of the roulette wheel is mutually exclusive and betting on the same number won't increase the odds that it's "due" to come up - betting on the same number 99 times in a row has the exact same odds as betting on a random number 99 times in a row. Every time a single token is drawn, you can, at the best, expect a 3/200 chance of drawing the 4 star - only slightly better than the chances that you are a direct descendant of Ghengis Khan if you are a male (1/200).
When you factor in that within that 0.3~1.5% margin, some of those covers will also be unusable (having fully covered that character), you may as well be playing roulette where the chance of hitting any number is 1/36 - a 2.7% chance - double that of the chances of drawing a single usable 4* cover if you currently have NO 4* characters in your roster. I don't know what the whales have dumped into the game to max their 5*s at even worse odds (having many or most of their 4*s fully covered), but it must be a staggering amount. Enough that D3 has renewed the "let them eat cake" policy for the rest of us month after month.
So whales have a chance at steady progression by deign of their wallets. Those already finished a 4* transition have a slower chance at steady progression via easily earned PVP Legendary tokens and everyone under that has their progression throttle set to "meagre/improbable". Adding 1* Spidey was "neat" - for the first day until everyone had him fully covered. Now he just waters down the pool.
So besides beginning the game from Day 1 with everything fresh and new and every random draw a shiny new usable cover, there's only 1 guaranteed method for progression. It requires stockpiling Deadpool Daily tokens and waiting until the pool of covers is revealed to have two 4*s (and possibly 3*s) that are usable by you. In this case, the pool is finite (and known) and each garbage draws eliminates that selection for the next draw. The drawback here is that it requires a minimum of 300 days to complete (stockpiling of 600 tokens - 300 for each of Sweet and Savory at 2 per day) and then waiting until the optimum selection rolls around. Then, just spam the draw button until you get the top 3 prizes - two usable 4*s and a chance at another useful 4* with the Legendary token. Sadly, that's what I'm reduced to - stockpiling for 300 days with the sole purpose of getting 4 guaranteed usable covers and gambling that the two Legendary draws will be beneficial. Be warned - wait until you have enough tokens to buy everything in the vault - a while back, I thought 60 might be enough. The 40 health packs did nothing to allay my rage at 30+ 2*s and ISO and the Legendary token which earned yet another unusable X-Force.
At this point, had I saved them and created roster space, I'd be 1 cover short of a second X-Force (a decent option - pre-nerf), have 4 maxed Hulk and 3 maxed GSBW among multiples of others.
The Anniversary event shows just how much players are appreciated with draw rates even worse than a standard Heroic token. The chance of getting ANY 4* is at a combined 1.6% (I discount the Devil Dino increased drop rate since, though they still haven't admitted it, we all know he's kind of a joke character). The chance of getting a 2* from those tokens is over 74%. The "Daily Deal" for these tokens is 50HP or regular price, 500HP. Is that reasonable for a 75% chance of drawing a 2*? Is that something to get excited for as an Anniversary event? I pity the people who spent money on HP (clever work - having the sale begin before revealing what the "prizes" would be). The reasoning being that "players will be getting so many of them that there was a need to balance it".
My advice to anyone planning on marrying a member of the D3 dev team: don't. For your anniversaries, you'll hear all week how you'll be going out to some awesome restaurant then, when you get there, your beloved will take all of the good stuff off of your plate and make you pay for the whole fiasco.
By now, the cat-calls should be coming in - I haven't said anything new - just rehashed the complaints of dozens of others. But I do offer some possible solutions. They won't "fix" the game - there's no un-jumping the shark - but they could mend it and still maintain the all-important bottom line.
1. Allow trades within alliances. Everybody has had this discussion at some point within an alliance - when I draw my 34th GSBW, rather than selling it, how about letting me send it to an alliance member who can actually use it? Lower level players who would get spanked with the scale-hammer by adding a randomly dropped 5* could offer it up within an alliance and be given a bounty of useful covers that will allow them to build their roster. I'll admit that trading-only alliances will likely pop up (not sure if that's a good or bad thing) and some will likely start up alt accounts for "cover-mining" (I expect a waste of time, but hey - D3 can brag about inflated user numbers). Hell, let people trade undrawn tokens for the sadists who actually enjoy the "gamble".
2. Allow sell-backs. When an event token is priced at 200HP and my odds of getting a useful drop are 1/1000, can I really be expected to push that button with bated breath? Hardly - my thoughts are mostly, "C'moooon 2* - papa needs 250 ISO." Instead of even drawing for useless stuff, what about players being given the option to sell those tokens. Not to steal D3's bread and butter (fake, digital, arbitrarily valued bread and butter), offering the player 1/2 or 1/4 the HP it would normally cost to buy the token and players could save up for things they actually use (roster slots). Yes, I know several tokens have a chance to win HP - but if you believe that spending 200HP and winning 100HP back is good fortune (devs, I'm looking at you here since you seem to genuinely believe this), please send me a private message - I will give you the same odds for any amount you wish to wager. Once your funds have been transferred to me, I will send you half of those funds back along with a shiny "Congratulations" card.
3. Allow trade-ins. The draw rates for single tokens are nonsense no metter what stage you are at in the game. But the draw rates for 10 and 40-packs are many times better - all the way into "nearly good" territory. Yet, if one acquires more than 10 single tokens, they are still drawn for at the lower draw rate. How about, if a player manages to earn more than 10 single tokens in an event, he can trade them - straight across - no gain or loss - for a 10 pack. Improve on this - allow people to stockpile. When an event finishes, any unclaimed tokens are converted to equivalent tokens for the next event. There are often events where I earn tokens that, looking at the available prizes, no matter what is drawn, it will be unusable by myself. If I can't gift them to alliance members or sell them back for a portion of their HP "value", why not let me use it in the next draw where something useful may be available or save them up for the improved draw rate (having accumulated 10 or 40).
4. My last possible solution: Scale the tokens the same way events are scaled. I'm shifting to 4* territory. I have ridiculous grinds for every PVE and still have to rotate my 3* roster and shield hop while fending off teams of maxed 4*s in order to place highly in PVP. Is a steady diet of 1 & 2* draws going to keep me interested? Not bloody likely (unless I could find an insane bookie to let me place money on those bets I make with myself). How about when a player has fully covered a tier, the drop rates shift?
For example - a player new to the game has fully covered every 1* character. The draw rates for 1* covers now diminishes by a combined 50% with that percentage now being made up in a higher draw rate for 2* covers. This works all the way up - a player can still draw covers for fully covered characters (still allowing them to adjust the build), but it allows them a reasonable expectation of progression. Further, the meager drops-in-the-bucket ISO values are increased for unusable covers that will be necessarily sold - making a 3* transition from the 1 & 2* chaff offered currently must have people at that stage grating their teeth - at the 4* transition stage, I'm going to require a mouth-guard (and no, 20 ISO is not a "reward" when the 4 main rewards have not been awarded for a repeatable PVE match - its more like slowing down for a hitchhiker and then throwing your drink at them and speeding off. But that's another matter).
Now - flay me alive and tear my ideas to shreds or, better yet, improve upon them. I realize that there is very little chance D3 will listen and positive changes will come. Their game plan seems to be an ever-escalating series of shark jumps. After submitting this post on the forums and the subreddit, I will also increase the chances of positive changes happening by printing it out, shredding the paper, throwing half of it into the wind and torching the other half as a burnt offering - both for no particular reason, but at least the odds of them being adopted by D3 will be equivalent to a usable draw from a standard token (0% to as many decimal places you care to name).
0
Comments
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strerd wrote:4. My last possible solution: Scale the tokens the same way events are scaled. I'm shifting to 4* territory. I have ridiculous grinds for every PVE and still have to rotate my 3* roster and shield hop while fending off teams of maxed 4*s in order to place highly in PVP. Is a steady diet of 1 & 2* draws going to keep me interested? Not bloody likely (unless I could find an insane bookie to let me place money on those bets I make with myself). How about when a player has fully covered a tier, the drop rates shift?
For example - a player new to the game has fully covered every 1* character. The draw rates for 1* covers now diminishes by a combined 50% with that percentage now being made up in a higher draw rate for 2* covers. This works all the way up - a player can still draw covers for fully covered characters (still allowing them to adjust the build), but it allows them a reasonable expectation of progression. Further, the meager drops-in-the-bucket ISO values are increased for unusable covers that will be necessarily sold - making a 3* transition from the 1 & 2* chaff offered currently must have people at that stage grating their teeth - at the 4* transition stage, I'm going to require a mouth-guard (and no, 20 ISO is not a "reward" when the 4 main rewards have not been awarded for a repeatable PVE match - its more like slowing down for a hitchhiker and then throwing your drink at them and speeding off. But that's another matter).
I wish I could give more than one thumbs-up. This suggestion deserves all the thumbs the internet has to give.0 -
Nightglider1 wrote:I wish I could give more than one thumbs-up. This suggestion deserves all the thumbs the internet has to give.
You make me blush.
There is 1 mathematical error or mistype (and it doesn't make things brighter for the player):
"Many players will do some simple multiplication and determine that if they draw 100 times from those tokens, they should get between 3 and 15 of those covers. "
That should be 1000 draws, not 100.0
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