Is still possible to get 4s in standard tokens?

Polares

Well the title says it all, anybody can confirm that he has won a 4 in an standard token recently?

I used to win some XWolvie or IW a long time ago in standard tokens, but I know for a fact that I have not won a 4 in an standard token in the last year, and that is like 1000+ tokens (not enterely sure how many but I think I win like 20 tokens or a little bit more every week).

I think I get a 3 every 40-80 tokens, but 0 4s, so I am really unlucky or it is not possible to win them there anymore?

Unknown

Polares wrote:

Well the title says it all, anybody can confirm that he has won a 4 in an standard token recently?

I used to win some XWolvie or IW a long time ago in standard tokens, but I know for a fact that I have not won a 4 in an standard token in the last year, and that is like 1000+ tokens (not enterely sure how many but I think I win like 20 tokens or a little bit more every week).

I think I get a 3 every 40-80 tokens, but 0 4s, so I am really unlucky or it is not possible to win them there anymore?

I got one yesterday

GMadMan040

I got a Nick Fury about three weeks ago from a Standard token. I also pulled a Prof. X about two months ago. The probability has got to be incredibly small; I can't even count how many standard tokens I had to open to get those two. But it's still possible, and out of all the pulls I've gotten, these two were the most rewarding because they were so surprising.

Gowaderacer

I am on day 647 and have opened at least 2000 standard tokens and have never pulled a single 4*. I pull about 1-2 3* per month if I'm lucky so you must have amazing luck to get any 4* at all.

Polares

Ok, so it is still possible, but seems the chances are less than 1 in a 1000, great

TazFTW

Not one in 2500+ token pulls. The 25HP reward was easier to get.

dkffiv

0 from 3859 draws (0%).
83x 3* (2.15%)

Urban_mike

I got 3 ant man's, 2 starlords, 2 thor goddesses, and 2 xforce

ZootSax

dkffiv wrote:

0 from 3859 draws (0%).
83x 3* (2.15%)

I have almost the exact same percentages from ~5,500 draws. I probably had another 1-2k tokens before I kept track, but have never pulled a 4*. Never pulled HP, either from standard tokens. I do wish they published the probability.

i also wish the people who pulled 4*'s participated in the draw rate tracking spreadsheet in the tips forum. No one there has reported anything but IW or XForce as of the last time I checked, so the probabilities recorded could be skewed...especially if the standard token odds changed when the others did.

Polares

Wow almost 4000 tokens and 0 draws, 5500 and 0 draws. I think I am around 2000 and 0 draws. I get that random is random but this is not right, if the chance is 0.001% and you open 2000 the system needs to notice and give you one 4

Lets all hope someday they implement an assisted rng system

JordonLee

It's possible to pull HP from standards? What's the point it that?

turul

They should include some chance for 4stars, besides XF+IW.

I have all 3stars complete, besides Bagion, so standard tokens are only ISO value for me...

Unknown

aesthetocyst wrote:

Yes, it's possible. Have pulled them with great rarity. Maybe once every three months. A year ago I pulled 3 XF's in a week from standards. Lightning strikes, haha.

That said ... why don't they post the odds for standards ... ?

I suspect its because the odds are different depending on if you spent ISO for the token, or if you earned it. I've heard it mentioned that earned Tokens can drop 3 stars and 4 stars, but Iso bought tokens cap at 2 stars. Or possibly 1 stars.

Im not about to pay the iso to test it.

JordonLee

Haetron wrote:

aesthetocyst wrote:

Yes, it's possible. Have pulled them with great rarity. Maybe once every three months. A year ago I pulled 3 XF's in a week from standards. Lightning strikes, haha.

That said ... why don't they post the odds for standards ... ?

I suspect its because the odds are different depending on if you spent ISO for the token, or if you earned it. I've heard it mentioned that earned Tokens can drop 3 stars and 4 stars, but Iso bought tokens cap at 2 stars. Or possibly 1 stars.

Im not about to pay the iso to test it.

I buy standards with ISO occasionally. Got a hell of a lot of 3*s from them.
Once got 3 3*s in around 20 pulls. Two of those only had one 1* between them.

Edit: incidentally, I feel like I get more 3*s from standards than I do heroic. But I probably owe that to how many you get and how many I've bought with 500 ISO.

dkffiv

JordonLee wrote:

Haetron wrote:

aesthetocyst wrote:

Yes, it's possible. Have pulled them with great rarity. Maybe once every three months. A year ago I pulled 3 XF's in a week from standards. Lightning strikes, haha.

That said ... why don't they post the odds for standards ... ?

I suspect its because the odds are different depending on if you spent ISO for the token, or if you earned it. I've heard it mentioned that earned Tokens can drop 3 stars and 4 stars, but Iso bought tokens cap at 2 stars. Or possibly 1 stars.

Im not about to pay the iso to test it.

I buy standards with ISO occasionally. Got a hell of a lot of 3*s from them.
Once got 3 3*s in around 20 pulls. Two of those only had one 1* between them.

Edit: incidentally, I feel like I get more 3*s from standards than I do heroic. But I probably owe that to how many you get and how many I've bought with 500 ISO.

3*'s
83 / 3859 standard (2.15%)

349 / 1723 (heroic + event tokens) (20.26%)

4*'s
39 / 1723 (2.26%).

Probability of getting 3* from standard seems about equal to getting 4* from heroics.

Assuming you sell everything you get from tokens, standard expected value is about 130 ISO whereas heroics are 317 ISO.

GrumpySmurf1002

dkffiv wrote:

Probability of getting 3* from standard seems about equal to getting 4* from heroics.

Previously the 4* rate was 2.3%, which jives with the Standards, but the last change they increased the Heroics to 3.45%

GrimSkald

I track my tokens - for me it's part of the fun. At this time I've opened 3044 standard tokens and gotten the following spread:

* 2502 82.2%
** 469 15.4%
*** 73 2.4%
**** 0 0.0%

So 0 4*s out of nearly 3050. I assume the chance is somewhere around .1% - sure statastically you'll get one every 1000, but going by 3 "chances" is not unlikely at all.

Unknown

544 xforce from standard tokens, as well as many hulk busters

but over the last 2 months, 1 from them and thats it

GrimSkald

OJSP wrote:

GrimSkald wrote:

I've opened 3044 standard tokens

I was wondering about this. Did you open all 3044 in 1 go or did you open them in random batches? or do you have a particular system? This question also goes to everyone else who mentioned having opened 5500 tokens, 3800 tokens, etc.

<snip>

With my method, it's possible that I may have opened more than 3044 tokens in total.. so you just might need a bigger sample size?

In random batches - rarely more than 10 at a time. Meh. I'm sure it's a small chance, and when it is a small chance you're statistically unlikely on any particular pull to get a 4*. That in turn means that it's still not all that strange to go a long time without pulling one.

CrookedKnight

Day 400+, and to the best of my recollection I've never pulled a 4* from a standard token.