Break-even point (for 4*s) with taco tokens

Vhailorx

I know a bunch of people posted threads on the math when the taco vault system was introduced two months ago, but was there ever a consensus on the sweet spot for hoarding tacos?

I have 60 sweet tacos saved up and 3 useful 4* covers in my current vault (plus two good 3*s in the rotation in Iron Fist and KK). Is it worth taking a shot? Or will I just end up with 40 healthpacks and a pile of 2*s that I don't need?

Unknown

...or you could pull those 4* covers and 1000 HP

Malcrof

Vhailorx wrote:

I know a bunch of people posted threads on the math when the taco vault system was introduced two months ago, but was there ever a consensus on the sweet spot for hoarding tacos?

I have 60 sweet tacos saved up and 3 useful 4* covers in my current vault (plus two good 3*s in the rotation in Iron Fist and KK). Is it worth taking a shot? Or will I just end up with 40 healthpacks and a pile of 2*s that I don't need?

If you need the covers, go for it.

Not that it works, i have 2 XFW sitting in my vault that no token could touch apparently.

notamutant

Vhailorx wrote:

I know a bunch of people posted threads on the math when the taco vault system was introduced two months ago, but was there ever a consensus on the sweet spot for hoarding tacos?

I have 60 sweet tacos saved up and 3 useful 4* covers in my current vault (plus two good 3*s in the rotation in Iron Fist and KK). Is it worth taking a shot? Or will I just end up with 40 healthpacks and a pile of 2*s that I don't need?

I am pretty sure you didn't even start to see any noticeable difference in draws until after 100. You could get lucky and get a 4 star on your first token. But it was pretty much mathematically logical to just save up until you have a couple hundred so you don't save for nothing. Honestly, I wouldn't even use a single token until I had enough to open the whole vault. Nothing would be worse than saving for 5 months, only to have the 10 items you didn't get in the vault be the ones you want.

nwman

notamutant wrote:

Vhailorx wrote:

I know a bunch of people posted threads on the math when the taco vault system was introduced two months ago, but was there ever a consensus on the sweet spot for hoarding tacos?

I have 60 sweet tacos saved up and 3 useful 4* covers in my current vault (plus two good 3*s in the rotation in Iron Fist and KK). Is it worth taking a shot? Or will I just end up with 40 healthpacks and a pile of 2*s that I don't need?

I am pretty sure you didn't even start to see any noticeable difference in draws until after 100. You could get lucky and get a 4 star on your first token. But it was pretty much mathematically logical to just save up until you have a couple hundred so you don't save for nothing. Honestly, I wouldn't even use a single token until I had enough to open the whole vault. Nothing would be worse than saving for 5 months, only to have the 10 items you didn't get in the vault be the ones you want.

Well you could buy a 10 pack at that point.

Furious1

If it helps I used 15 tokens on the current vault and pulled 13 **, 1 ***, and 1 health pack, all in which I didn't need,including the crummy cap marvel cover.

XandorXerxes

Vhailorx wrote:

I know a bunch of people posted threads on the math when the taco vault system was introduced two months ago, but was there ever a consensus on the sweet spot for hoarding tacos?

I have 60 sweet tacos saved up and 3 useful 4* covers in my current vault (plus two good 3*s in the rotation in Iron Fist and KK). Is it worth taking a shot? Or will I just end up with 40 healthpacks and a pile of 2*s that I don't need?

Depends on what you consider a success and what risk you are willing to take.

With 60 tacos, you have a 49% chance of getting a 4* cover (I excluded HP rewards). If you would like ANY Kamala or Iron Fist cover, your chances of getting one of those or a 4* is about 98% (assuming no other IF or KK covers in the randoms). If you only want one of 8 particular covers, you're about an 84% chance.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/h ... etric.aspx

Population size = 300
# of Success = How many rewards are in the vault that you would like
Sample Size = Number of tokens you have to spend
Number of Successes = How many you'd like to get

The top result will tell you what your odds of getting exactly that many successes is, the bottom result is the desired number of successes or more. Using the example above with 8 covers desired you have an 84% chance of getting 1 or more desirable rewards and a 34% chance of getting exactly 1 desirable reward (i.e. you have a 50% chance of getting 2 or more desirable rewards).

If you want a 75% chance of getting a 4* cover (non-HP), you'll need 111 tokens.

Hope you have better luck than I did!

Vhailorx

Of course there is no certainty until you at least 298 tokens. But I am sure someone on the forums has a done a nice graphical display of the odds of pulling at least 1 4* covers for any given number of token draws from 1 to 300, and I am sure that there is an ideal return-on-investment point wherein you get an 80 or 90% chance of pulling a 4* but can do it multiple times over 10 months, rather than waiting 300 days to save up one vault's worth of tokens.

It's a relatively trivial math problem. . . by high school and college were long long ago for me and I was hoping someone else had already done the work for me!

Edit: Yay for XandorXerxes!!!!! (Who needs to learn math when there is the internets!?)

Further Edit:

I would be ok with an HP reward, and since the KK and IF covers are for duplicates, I would be happy with any color for either of them. All of which means there are probably 10-12 outcomes that would be useful for me in addition to the 3 4* covers that I actually want. Meaning 60 tokens is not useless, but still probably not good enough to justify the expense. *sigh* back to hoarding. . .

XandorXerxes

Vhailorx wrote:

I would be ok with an HP reward, and since the KK and IF covers are for duplicates, I would be happy with any color for either of them. All of which means there are probably 10-12 outcomes that would be useful for me in addition to the 3 4* covers that I actually want. Meaning 60 tokens is not useless, but still probably not good enough to justify the expense. *sigh* back to hoarding. . .

You've got a 50% shot for 3 of 13 desirable rewards with 60 tokens.

80% chance of a 4* cover (non-HP) is 124 tokens, 90% is 160. However, those extra 36 tokens also take you from a 37% chance of two 4* covers to a 55% chance of two 4* covers.

It really just comes down to how many rewards you want to risk. If you only want at least 1 reward, you've got a 95% shot of getting 1 of 13 (77% of 2+). If you're willing to accept the other 2 as successes, then your chances of getting one will go up.

If you want to save until you can guarantee all 13 rewards, you're going to be saving a while (250 tokens gives you a 9% chance of getting 13 successes if you have limited your success pool to 13, 10 successes is 85%).

MarvelMan

I have to do this......

I accidentally opened a Taco this morning...my first since the vault started. I wasnt paying enough attention and thought it was my Heroics. And it was Carnage red.



Thank you for the numbers, and discussion. I was thinking I would save til 180 or 190 before opening.

Unknown

very interesting.....I want to know what my chances are of getting a 4* "quality" of reward is....and how many tokens I need

I will have to check tomorrow b/c I don't want kingpin purple

Unknown

Spent 31 tacos to get 10k iso which is a "4*" prize...would've rather got jean grey, but still good

other notable prizes: quicksilver green magneto yellow black panther blue 250 hp 1500 iso

Polares

Well if it makes you thinks easier today I just opened 50 tacos. I needed the iso, two of the three 4 covers (ben and xpool) and the only 3 I still don have maxed Vision and Quicksilver and the possibility of getting a blue witch cover to respec her was too much to pass.

Results:

1 purple xpool

1 red vision
1 quicksilver
1 blck bp
1 purple witch (noooooooo!)
1 red magneto
1 red daredevil

1250 HP

Like 16000 iso (after selling everything)

20 health packs

So not bad, two were considered 4 ( the deadpool and the 1000 HPs ) so for 50 tokens is a good pull, I the witch would have been blue I would have been really happy.