Thanks D3!

Unknown

I'm very relieved and thankful to D3.

Was planning to whale the juggernaut pve to get me some Xpool covers, I've only ever whaled on 3* deadpool, because deadpool, but Lo and behold! Mine turned out to be a vault type instead of the normal one!

So I just wanna say thank you (again) to the game developers for helping me make my decision for me NOT to spend money on the game! I mean, it seems pretty stupid to open a 40 pack with the chance of only 1 Xpool cover, amiright, amiright?

Whomever thought up of that business strategy is a real winner! Many thumbs up! And the PR is impeccable (as usual)! Not a peep from the devs as to WHY there are 2 types of vaults as well!

Kudos all around!

Unknown

Cool story bro.

GurlBYE

mango_sentinel wrote:

Cool story bro.

How can you not feel the sarcasm seething from the post.

nwman

Seriously though if you want deadpool covers only then wait for the pvp event. It will have the highest odds of deadpool of any tokens.

Unknown

GurlBYE wrote:

mango_sentinel wrote:

Cool story bro.

How can you not feel the sarcasm seething from the post.

Sigh...

Unknown

nwman wrote:

Seriously though if you want deadpool covers only then wait for the pvp event. It will have the highest odds of deadpool of any tokens.

I'm aware. But I really really really want to have him asap!

nwman

Deadpooool wrote:

nwman wrote:

Seriously though if you want deadpool covers only then wait for the pvp event. It will have the highest odds of deadpool of any tokens.

I'm aware. But I really really really want to have him asap!

I hear you, I'm anticipating tonights grind for top 10 to be a tough one, whoever comes in 11th is going to be pissed.

I hope its not me!

XandorXerxes

Chance to get Deadpool from any token in a 40-pack - 1.4% (I'm pulling that number from another thread, correct me if I'm wrong)

Odds of not getting Deadpool from the token: 98.6%
Odds of not getting Deadpool from any token in the pack: 0.986^40 = 0.56895 or 56.895%
Odds of getting Deadpool from a 40-pack: 43.105%

Odds of pulling 2 or more Deadpool from a 40-pack: 10.8%

Vault odds of pulling Deadpool with a 40-pack: 50%

So they gave you better odds of pulling Deadpool, at the cost of only pulling one (unless you pay to reset your vault). Would you rather gamble with the 10% shot of 2 or more Deadpools (3 or more is 1%) or would you rather have a higher chance of getting what you wanted?

I don't know the costs of 10-packs vs 40-packs, but you could in theory purchase 4 10-packs and if you pull him after 1 or 2 10-packs, reset the vault and use the tokens on the new vault.

Another mechanic they could implement would be that with vaults, when you buy a 40-pack you get 40 tokens instead of opening them all at once. That way if you get what you want after 5 tokens, you can pay for a new vault before opening the rest.

Polares

Deadpooool wrote:

nwman wrote:

Seriously though if you want deadpool covers only then wait for the pvp event. It will have the highest odds of deadpool of any tokens.

I'm aware. But I really really really want to have him asap!

YOU SHOULD REALLY WAIT. I am going to repeat myself. YOU NEED TO WAIT.

For Jean the difference from a 10-token pack was from 1.4 to 3.6, If I remember correctly. That is alomost 3 times the chance. This is the difference between open a 10-pack and having a good chance of winning a Deadpool or a very good chance of not winning it.

In my case this Vault is a bliss, It is the first time I have been lucky with a vault. It has a red deadpool (yeah, I would have preferred a purple), but It has a Purple ProfX and a Black Carnage, which are the only 4 I still dont have (and there is also a yellow ProfX). So I am quite happy, and I will probably spend some money.

CrookedKnight

XandorXerxes wrote:

Another mechanic they could implement would be that with vaults, when you buy a 40-pack you get 40 tokens instead of opening them all at once. That way if you get what you want after 5 tokens, you can pay for a new vault before opening the rest.

Hey D3! See this thing? Do it. Do the thing.

CaptainFreaky

XandorXerxes wrote:

Chance to get Deadpool from any token in a 40-pack - 1.4% (I'm pulling that number from another thread, correct me if I'm wrong)

Odds of not getting Deadpool from the token: 98.6%
Odds of not getting Deadpool from any token in the pack: 0.986^40 = 0.56895 or 56.895%
Odds of getting Deadpool from a 40-pack: 43.105%

Odds of pulling 2 or more Deadpool from a 40-pack: 10.8%

Vault odds of pulling Deadpool with a 40-pack: 50%

So they gave you better odds of pulling Deadpool, at the cost of only pulling one (unless you pay to reset your vault). Would you rather gamble with the 10% shot of 2 or more Deadpools (3 or more is 1%) or would you rather have a higher chance of getting what you wanted?

I don't know the costs of 10-packs vs 40-packs, but you could in theory purchase 4 10-packs and if you pull him after 1 or 2 10-packs, reset the vault and use the tokens on the new vault.
lo
Another mechanic they could implement would be that with vaults, when you buy a 40-pack you get 40 tokens instead of opening them all at once. That way if you get what you want after 5 tokens, you can pay for a new vault before opening the rest.

i like the analysis even if the probabilities do change a bit on the vault side - directionally it's solid.
I am one of those who do not have a vault. I have the regular page/offer. I'd prefer the vault mostly because you can look at the other 3 and 4 stars on offer - including the specific cover colors - and decide whether to invest. Obviously with Deadpool it doesn't matter because any color would be helpful - bur for the others, it's good to know that I can potentially get a specific color cover and decide if that's useful to me or not. It simply makes for a more informed investment decision. Sadly, I don't have that option since I was one that was not selected for Vault testing...

Unknown

Polares wrote:

Deadpooool wrote:

nwman wrote:

Seriously though if you want deadpool covers only then wait for the pvp event. It will have the highest odds of deadpool of any tokens.

I'm aware. But I really really really want to have him asap!

YOU SHOULD REALLY WAIT. I am going to repeat myself. YOU NEED TO WAIT.

For Jean the difference from a 10-token pack was from 1.4 to 3.6, If I remember correctly. That is alomost 3 times the chance. This is the difference between open a 10-pack and having a good chance of winning a Deadpool or a very good chance of not winning it.

In my case this Vault is a bliss, It is the first time I have been lucky with a vault. It has a red deadpool (yeah, I would have preferred a purple), but It has a Purple ProfX and a Black Carnage, which are the only 4 I still dont have (and there is also a yellow ProfX). So I am quite happy, and I will probably spend some money.

As someone who couldn't wait for Jean Grey, I will agree it is better to wait but can understand not wanting to lol.
Could've definitely saved myself some money.

Polares

mango_sentinel wrote:

Polares wrote:

Deadpooool wrote:

nwman wrote:

Seriously though if you want deadpool covers only then wait for the pvp event. It will have the highest odds of deadpool of any tokens.

I'm aware. But I really really really want to have him asap!

YOU SHOULD REALLY WAIT. I am going to repeat myself. YOU NEED TO WAIT.

For Jean the difference from a 10-token pack was from 1.4 to 3.6, If I remember correctly. That is alomost 3 times the chance. This is the difference between open a 10-pack and having a good chance of winning a Deadpool or a very good chance of not winning it.

In my case this Vault is a bliss, It is the first time I have been lucky with a vault. It has a red deadpool (yeah, I would have preferred a purple), but It has a Purple ProfX and a Black Carnage, which are the only 4 I still dont have (and there is also a yellow ProfX). So I am quite happy, and I will probably spend some money.

As someone who couldn't wait for Jean Grey, I will agree it is better to wait but can understand not wanting to lol.
Could've definitely saved myself some money.

I myself waited, and used some HP saved, to test my luck, and I got two covers in a 10 pack! And one was the blue, which I didnt have. I am usually lucky with these 10 packs, just the opposite than with any other token , I bought a couple of packs when IMHB was featured and got 3 covers, which is also a good ratio.

So again, YOU SHOULD ALWAYS WAIT TO THE PVP where the 4 is featured.

Unknown

Polares wrote:

I myself waited, and used some HP saved, to test my luck, and I got two covers in a 10 pack! And one was the blue, which I didnt have. I am usually lucky with these 10 packs, just the opposite than with any other token , I bought a couple of packs when IMHB was featured and got 3 covers, which is also a good ratio.

So again, YOU SHOULD ALWAYS WAIT TO THE PVP where the 4 is featured.

Definitely doing that for xpool, I did eventually manage to get all 3 jean covers from a pack but it wasn't my first pack I'll say that much

XandorXerxes

CaptainFreaky wrote:

i like the analysis even if the probabilities do change a bit on the vault side - directionally it's solid.

Amusingly the math for the vault in this instance is particularly easy - there is only one cover and a 40-pack is half of the vault. If you're buying two 40-packs, you have a 100% chance for 1 cover and a 25% chance for 2 covers (assuming 1 Deadpool cover in the new vault and that the player was willing to fork out the HP for the new vault).

Old tokens have about a 31% chance of getting 2 or more deadpool covers in two 40-packs, with a little over 10% chance of that 31% being the chance of getting 3 or more (and about a whopping 2.6% chance of getting 4 or more).

Note though - with two 40-packs you have a 67.63% chance in the old system of getting 1 or more Deadpool covers. Those aren't terrible odds, but that also means you have almost a 1/3 shot of not getting him at all. I'm too unlucky to go for those odds.

Using the individual event rate of 3.6% (as quoted above):

Odds of getting 1+ Deadpool covers in one 40-pack: 79%
Odds of getting 2+ Deadpool covers in one 40-pack: 42.46%
Odds of getting 1+ Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: ~95%
Odds of getting 2+ Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: ~79%
Odds of getting 3+ Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: ~55% (with about a 1/3 shot of 4+)

Which would be much better odds than the current vault. If the individual event rewards converted to a vault with 2 Deadpool covers and was still only 80 total...

Odds of getting 1+ Deadpool covers in one 40-pack: ~75%
Odds of getting 2+ Deadpool covers in one 40-pack: 24.68%
Odds of getting 2 Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: 100%
Odds of getting 3+ Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: ~19%
Odds of getting 4 Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: 6.25%

It still doesn't really compare. So there would have to be three Deadpool covers in the vault for the vault to even really compare in this case, and at that point your odds in the vault would be tremendously better - the powers that be would need to probably increase the vault size as well as offer the three covers. It's a nasty balancing act.

TL;DR:

If you're going to buy tokens in large quantities, buy the individual event tokens. If you're going to buy THESE tokens, hope you get a vault.

waynerz666

XandorXerxes wrote:

CaptainFreaky wrote:

i like the analysis even if the probabilities do change a bit on the vault side - directionally it's solid.

Amusingly the math for the vault in this instance is particularly easy - there is only one cover and a 40-pack is half of the vault. If you're buying two 40-packs, you have a 100% chance for 1 cover and a 25% chance for 2 covers (assuming 1 Deadpool cover in the new vault and that the player was willing to fork out the HP for the new vault).

Old tokens have about a 31% chance of getting 2 or more deadpool covers in two 40-packs, with a little over 10% chance of that 31% being the chance of getting 3 or more (and about a whopping 2.6% chance of getting 4 or more).

Note though - with two 40-packs you have a 67.63% chance in the old system of getting 1 or more Deadpool covers. Those aren't terrible odds, but that also means you have almost a 1/3 shot of not getting him at all. I'm too unlucky to go for those odds.

Using the individual event rate of 3.6% (as quoted above):

Odds of getting 1+ Deadpool covers in one 40-pack: 79%
Odds of getting 2+ Deadpool covers in one 40-pack: 42.46%
Odds of getting 1+ Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: ~95%
Odds of getting 2+ Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: ~79%
Odds of getting 3+ Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: ~55% (with about a 1/3 shot of 4+)

Which would be much better odds than the current vault. If the individual event rewards converted to a vault with 2 Deadpool covers and was still only 80 total...

Odds of getting 1+ Deadpool covers in one 40-pack: ~75%
Odds of getting 2+ Deadpool covers in one 40-pack: 24.68%
Odds of getting 2 Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: 100%
Odds of getting 3+ Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: ~19%
Odds of getting 4 Deadpool covers in two 40-packs: 6.25%

It still doesn't really compare. So there would have to be three Deadpool covers in the vault for the vault to even really compare in this case, and at that point your odds in the vault would be tremendously better - the powers that be would need to probably increase the vault size as well as offer the three covers. It's a nasty balancing act.

TL;DR:

If you're going to buy tokens in large quantities, buy the individual event tokens. If you're going to buy THESE tokens, hope you get a vault.

Your theory is completely broken.. In a 40 Pack with a 3.6% chance to get a Deadpool cover each chance is exactly the same... 3.6% each time.. It is not cumulative, it doesn't stack, it is just that flat same 3.6% chance every pull... In other words, the 40 pack is a money sink and you are likely to get a collection of **** every time. To make it worse.. If you do happen to trap that lightning in a bottle, you have a 33% chance to get the color you actually need... So good luck trying to get one of each.. It will take you MANY MANY MANY 40 packs unless you are truly lucky..

The vault, while it may have its own flaws, is a 1 in 80 chance, 1 in 79 , 1 in 78 etc.. the more you play, the better your odds...

CrookedKnight

No, that's how probability works. If you want to know the odds of a specific combination of random things happening in a row, you multiply the chances of all of them together. For instance, if you flip a coin twice, the odds that you'll get heads twice in a row is 0.5 * 0.5 = 25%.

To apply that to tokens, the chance that you'll get Deadpool in his PvP is 3.6% per pull. That means the chance that any given token WON'T be Deadpool is 96.4%. So for a ten-pack, you multiply 0.964 * 0.964 * 0.964, and so on, ten times. It works out to about 69% of 10-packs not having any 4* Deadpools in them at all -- which means the the other 31% DO have at least one of the covers you want. For a 40-pack, you multiply it out 42 times. And that gives you the probabilities Xandor wrote.

Linkster79

If I flip a coin 10 times in a row do the odds of them all being heads go up or down?

CrookedKnight

The chance of any particular flip landing heads or tails is always 50/50. But this isn't about the odds of each individual token, it's about the cumulative odds that somewhere in a stack of 10 or 42 random chances will be (at least) one lucky pull. And you calculate that through the Multiplication Rule of Probability.

waynerz666

You can talk about rule of probability all you want , the % odds are what they are, low. I have seen multiple sandboxed accounts go through 30+ 42 packs before getting 1 of every color on a new character..

You want to believe the claim that you open 2-42 packs and have a ~95% of probably getting a XDP cover what you probably will be is disappointed.

puppychow

I just got a off a Jug heroic token (non-vault). So yes, I'm VERY thankful to D3 for the wonderful gift.