Ultron run 2 vs. run 1 analysis

mouser

Here's a breakdown of the scaling difference of Ultron from run 1 to run 2. It focuses on the # of fights necessary to defeat Ultron each round, and the pace an Alliance would have needed to maintain to reach the upper awards in runs 1 and 2.



Observations:
- A team that barely finished Round 7 during run1 (616 fights) would have needed a slightly higher effort to complete Round 6 during run2 (664 fights).
- A team that finished Round 8 during run1 (845 fights) would have needed about a 33% boost in scoring to finish Round 7 in run2 (1,143 fights).
- To defeat Round 6 run2 an alliance needed to average 7.11 successful Ultron fights per player per 24 hour period (2.37*3).
- To defeat Round 7 run2 an alliance needed to average 12.24 fights per player per 24 hours.
- To defeat Round 8 run2 an alliance needed to average an impressive 6.13 fights per player per refresh, and 18.39 fights per 24 hour period.
- Maximum # of fights in a particular round during a particular refresh is only 6, but its possible to average higher then this by completing Round X and starting Round X+1 during the same refresh period.
- I seriously wonder if Ultron's health in Round 8 was scaled down from a larger number. The growth pattern from run1 to run2 at the top rounds doesn't seem to fit for Round 8. There was a ninja data update pushed Friday afternoon before any teams had reached Round 8.


What would it take to beat Ultron Round 8 this second run? Here's a breakdown of the schedule that would be necessary.



A complete team of active 20 players will be able to complete 100-120 fights per Round per refresh depending on whether they can time their clears to allow the central Ultron node timer to expire and get in 6 fights a round vs. only 5 if Ultron's timer is unexpired. Finishing Rounds 7 and 8 in time would be extra difficult without a large portion of the alliance players getting in 6 fights the majority of refreshes. Should also point out that players without a Scarlet Witch cover were at a massive disadvantage--only being able to do 3-4 Ultron fights per cycle instead of 5-6.

There were three key lynchpin milestones for teams to complete Round 8:

1) Could you finish Round 4 during the first refresh cycle? I assumed in this optimal schedule that alliances didn't, but if you could have done this it would have been a huge boost up, setting your alliance one refresh ahead of schedule. Server issues early in the event, and Round 4 locked for a while made this milestone even more difficult to reach. On top of this, your alliance would have had to get in 90+ Round 5 fights during the first cycle, setting you up to finish off Round 5 (182 fights total) during the 2nd refresh cycle. If you didn't do this also then the advantage would be lost because you'd end up finishing Round 5 during the 3rd cycle like everyone that didn't finish Round 4 during cycle 1.

2) Could you finish Round 7 early enough during the 9th refresh cycle to allow most of your team time for a clear of Round 8 before the refresh ended? This one was probably tricky for any alliance with a lot of North American players. The 9th refresh cycle was from 4AM EST to Noon EST (1AM PST to 9AM PST). In hindsight this is where my alliance fell off the pace. We cleared Round 7 this cycle, but with less then an hour remaining in the refresh and not enough players able to get in a Round 8 clear that cycle. A little more activity in cycles 5-8 and more people coordinating 6 fight refreshes could have allowed us to finish Round 7 early enough in the cycle to allow most players a shot at Round 8 before the cycle finished. So far as I'm aware from chats only Tacos and Best hit this milestone--the only two teams reporting a Round 8 victory.

3) Could you get a total of 572 wins against Ultron Round 8 over the final 6 refresh cycles? If everyone got in 6 fights in cycle 9 and only did 5 fights each other cycle that's a total of 620 fights, not a huge margin of error if any players have real life scheduling challenges. Was also important here that teams get as many 6 fight refreshes in during cycles 10-13 as possible to allow a quick finish when cycle 14 started, and time for everyone to fight their Prime node 8.


In summary, this event was really built for near perfection to defeat Round 8. Because of the maximum # of fights possible during any refresh cycle, if a team fell even one cycle behind the optimal schedule it was practically impossible to recover and get back on a pace to win Round 8.

Spoit

We took it easy for the 2nd run, but I'm fairly sure that we did beat the 4th wave within the first cycle on the 1st run, since by the time I could finally get through reliably, we were a third of the way into 5

mouser

Spoit wrote:

We took it easy for the 2nd run, but I'm fairly sure that we did beat the 4th wave within the first cycle on the 1st run, since by the time I could finally get through reliably, we were a third of the way into 5

Are you sure about that? It took 114 wins to defeat Round 4, which works out to 19 of 20 players doing the maximum 6 possible fights in Round 4. If you weren't able to get in regularly that means the other 19 players in your alliance got the 114 wins, minus any you were able to squeeze in.

Bowgentle

mouser wrote:

Spoit wrote:

We took it easy for the 2nd run, but I'm fairly sure that we did beat the 4th wave within the first cycle on the 1st run, since by the time I could finally get through reliably, we were a third of the way into 5

Are you sure about that? It took 114 wins to defeat Round, which works out to 19 of 20 players doing the maximum 6 possible fights in Round 4. If you weren't able to get in regularly that means the other 19 players in your alliance got the 114 wins, minus any you were able to squeeze in.

Bee alone probably got 115 wins.
don't ask how it's possible, it's Bee.

Malcrof

From what i understand, when you defeated ultron to move onto the next round, you get a new set of nodes, independent of the refreshes. That would be an extra 6 kills per person on ultron, each new round.

JVReal

Malcrof wrote:

From what i understand, when you defeated ultron to move onto the next round, you get a new set of nodes, independent of the refreshes. That would be an extra 6 kills per person on ultron, each new round.

Yes, he accounted for that in his summary explanation.

Raffoon

mouser wrote:

Observations:
- A team that barely finished Round 7 during run1 (616 fights) would have needed a slightly higher effort to complete Round 6 during run2 (664 fights).

This seems about right to me. My team got somewhere around 1/3 of the way through Round 8 on Run 1. We figured with all the server issues, if we all pushed hard we'd be able to finish round 8 for Run 2. What a turd of a surprise the increased health was for us

The expectation when running 2 events back to back was that they would be the same event with different rewards. It was very disappointing to find that increasing our effort only managed to get us through round 6 when it would have gotten us through round 8 before.

Unknown

mouser wrote:

- To defeat Round 8 run2 an alliance needed to average an impressive 6.13 fights per player per refresh, and 18.39 fights per 24 hour period.
- Maximum # of fights in a particular round during a particular refresh is only 6, but its possible to average higher then this by completing Round X and starting Round X+1 during the same refresh period.

This right here is bonkers. Near perfect play to beat round 8? Really? And heaven forbid someone lose a fight to Ultron. Once. And 6 fights a refresh isn't sustainable long term. Even if you finish them as fast as possible, you still creep closer and closer to that refresh timer, eventually you will lose one or more fights to it.

Unknown

thx for doing this get us some justice and compensation!

Unknown

they just said round 6 and 7 for Ultron 2.0 were "on target".

Tinykitty tiny-kitty tiny-kittiers

Unknown

This is a nice analysis, but if I may nitpick a bit, it neglects the contribution to your point total from completing essential nodes. While essential nodes are not worth many points—in fact they are quite often worth nothing at all—overall they may be able to increase your score by another 5% or so, which could translate into a one refresh margin by pushing those finish possible rounds to completion.

MarvelMan

raisinbman wrote:

they just said round 6 and 7 for Ultron 2.0 were "on target".

Tinykitty tiny-kitty tiny-kittiers

The problem is that they seem to be looking purely at the number who completed those rounds, not when it was done.

Noobulator

Lerysh wrote:

mouser wrote:

- To defeat Round 8 run2 an alliance needed to average an impressive 6.13 fights per player per refresh, and 18.39 fights per 24 hour period.
- Maximum # of fights in a particular round during a particular refresh is only 6, but its possible to average higher then this by completing Round X and starting Round X+1 during the same refresh period.

This right here is bonkers. Near perfect play to beat round 8? Really? And heaven forbid someone lose a fight to Ultron. Once. And 6 fights a refresh isn't sustainable long term. Even if you finish them as fast as possible, you still creep closer and closer to that refresh timer, eventually you will lose one or more fights to it.

We did it, not everyone was perfect. Not everyone cleared each ultron (i.e. some wiped), not everyone had hawk eye (including me). I still put up about 2.2 M... Did it suck? Yes, but lots of whining going around for something you could have done in theory. Best is BY FAR not a PVE alliance, but we went all in. I'm surprised the top PVE alliances didn't do it too.

Unknown

What he said. No PvE freaks and happy clockwork grinders here. When I jumped in the second time, the others had already started round 3. I certainly didn't play optimally, I wiped several times and I remember refreshes I at least partially missed. I still finished #8. Why? Because I played consistently. I wasn't on a clock, I just regularly returned to kick Ultron's metal butt. And, most importantly, I didn't quit just because it looked like we might not finish.
And I actually had fun most of the time.