Reference: 10-pack Heroic token probabilities- Updated

jffdougan

Since there's usually the poll asking about gold covers people pull from the 4k point (and season placement) 10-packs, I thought I'd put the expected distribution here:

Updated for Season XVI increases:

0 gold covers: 2.11%
1 gold: 9.95%
2 gold: 21.07%
3 gold: 26.44%
4 gold: 21.77%
5 gold: 12.29%
6 gold: 4.82%
7 gold: 1.30%
8 gold: 0.23%
9 gold: 0.02%
10 gold: <0.01%

The chances of multiple 4* characters have improved, but not much. None is still the most likely outcome (70%, down from 76%). 26% chance of one 4* character; 4% chance of two, and <0.5% chance of more than two.


Prior to Season XIV:

0 gold covers: 10.34%
1 gold: 26.34%
2 gold: 30.19%
3 gold: 30.51%
4 gold: 9.15%
5 gold: 2.79%
6 gold: 0.59%
7 gold: 0.09%
8 gold: 0.01%
9 gold: <0.01%
10 gold: <0.01%

There was a pretty big boost to the 10-pack odds beginning for season 14. 10-pack awards with no gold covers shouldn't quite be a thing of the past, but those who are good enough to score multiples shouldn't have multiple strikeouts.


Seasons XIV-XV:

0 gold: 2.55%
1 gold: 11.32%
2 gold: 22.65%
3 gold: 26.65%
4 gold: 20.66%
5 gold: 10.98%
6 gold: 4.05%
7 gold: 1.03%
8 gold: 0.17%
9 gold: 0.02%
10 gold: <0.01%



After pulling a Goddess of Thunder token in a sub reward yesterday, I got curious and ran one separate set of math on the current Heroic 10-packs, showing the expected distribution of 4* covers only. The most likely outcome is no 4* covers (76%), followed by one 4* cover (21%), then two (2.6%). Because I'm truncating a bit, the odds of three or more 4* covers in a 10-pack are essentially negligible.

Update 6/15/2015: Adjusted odds to account for addition of Bullseye (Classic) & Vision to Heroic tokens. Also prepped separate note regarding expected distribution of 4* covers (which is a subset of the 3/4* table).

The May/June Q&A video indicated that the odds of pulling a 4* cover in a token will increase at some point in the near future. As soon as I notice that's live, I'll update the math and repost here.

Update, 6/29/2015: The increase in 4* odds for Season XVI has gone into effect. Ice_IX has noted elsewhere that instead of rounding up to 0.3%, it's now rounding down to 0.3%, so I'm pretty sure my numbers are such that I shouldn't be reporting two decimal places. However, having started like that for the earlier runs, I'm going to stick with it.

Unknown

Is there a difference in probability from the seasonal 10 pack vs a purchased one?

jffdougan

mango_sentinel wrote:

Is there a difference in probability from the seasonal 10 pack vs a purchased one?

Nope. But, it's possible to earn at least one free 10-pack per versus season for hitting 4000 points. The general consensus is that spending HP to purchase cover packs is a sucker's bet - it's better to use them for roster slots or purchasing specific covers after acquiring the first one.

jffdougan

I've updated the OP to account for the addition of Bullseye and Vision. The May Q&A video said that the chances of 4* characters from tokens will be increasing in the near future; I'll update here when it does.

atomzed

Thanks for the work! I didn't expect the odds to increase so much!

Malcrof

After the increased odds, i had my first 0 gold season 10 pack ever... previous 2 seasons i had 4 and 5..

jffdougan

It sounds like the odds in Heroic tokens will get updated on Monday. I'll update this post sometime the evening after the update goes live.

jffdougan

As promised, the expected distribution is updated.