deadpool tokens

thedude
thedude Posts: 55
edited March 2015 in MPQ Bugs and Technical Issues
I've won every available token, and they have all been 2*, with the exception of one 3*. I understand that probability means that this can happen, but the odds are stacked against it.
I make it roughly 15% per token on not getting a 2*, whereas I'm around 3%. Maybe I'm just unlucky, but more than half of my 10 packs have been all 2* too.

So I am curious, do d3 analyse results to ensure that their random results are as expected/intended?

Comments

  • MojoWild
    MojoWild Posts: 765 Critical Contributor
    I don't know that that analysis would show that the probability is working. If you think of a coin toss, you could get heads 3 of 10 times, but that doesn't change the probability to 30% instead of 50%. They just need to be sure the code is working properly.
  • thedude
    thedude Posts: 55
    Agree, I just always seem to be behind the curve and wondered if. Was that unlucky it if the code is flawed. Presumably, there should be someone getting way over the odds? Care to post if that's you?
  • MojoWild
    MojoWild Posts: 765 Critical Contributor
    My season 10 packs have run the gamut from no 3* (twice) to about 6, if that's any help. My last season pack only netted a Luke Cage I didn't need, but then my season ending tokens gave me two black XForce, so it happens. Just odds are against getting what we want.
  • BlackSheep101
    BlackSheep101 Posts: 2,025 Chairperson of the Boards
    I find my luck with tokens goes in streaks, too. I'll go days without pulling anything useful and then get several great pulls within a short time. You can't really make assumptions about the formula from the small sample of tokens you open. I'm sure D3 looks at statistics across the whole player base.
  • cletus1985
    cletus1985 Posts: 276 Mover and Shaker
    Have to keep in mind that odds don't always work so well with a RNG either, while basic math supports the fact that you should see Gold 1/10 pulls the truth is you have about a 90% chance of getting Silver every token.

    In other words, I should hit a 6 1/6 of the time I roll a dice, but I could roll it 100 times and never see a 6. Randomness kind of sucks, but hey I could also roll a 6 10 times in a row afterwards so it may work out in my favor at some point.

    The RNG gods can be very cruel, but they usually give you a nice streak here and there to make up for their cruelty. icon_e_biggrin.gif

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