For the stat hounds: a full season's worth of tokens

El Satanno

About a week or so back, I got around to opening roughly an entire season's worth of tokens. I saved every token I earned from both PvP and PvE, with the exception being the taco tokens. This amounted to 414 silver tokens, 94 mixed gold tokens, and a 10-pack. Submitted for your consideration, the meaningful results of the endeavor. (hidden for easier consumption, including fancy-schmancy images)

414 silver tokens:

Opened in one grand ceremony totaling 43 minutes.
52,250 from sales of and covers

cover pulls:


(x2)
(x2)

94 mixed

31,560 from sales of covers

and pulls, by event type:
Iso Brotherhood








Prodigal Sun


Magnetic Mayhem


Thick as Thieves



Divine Champions


Enemy of the State


Lethal Intent


Women of Marvel


Generic Heroic Tokens





Heroic 10-pack

(Purely subjective) Conclusions:
1) The rates for getting 3* pulls is about equal for silver and gold tokens.
2) IsoBros rule! By volume, the best 3* payouts by far over any other type of token. I even got 3 in a row, including that Elektra cover.
3) 10-pack is a 10-crock. Although I got two 3*, that's exactly two more than I've received from the last four or 5 seasons' 10-packs.
4) Opening a metric buttload of tokens at the same time feels a whole hell of a lot less disappointing than being let down one at a time after each event or as the tokens come.
5) Will I do it again? Already am! Whee!

GrumpySmurf1002

1) The rates for getting 3* pulls is about equal for silver and gold tokens.

Err...what?

For your silvers: Based on the iso, it's looks like:
325
79
10

Which is 78.5% - 19.1% - 2.4%. That's pretty standard distribution. The two stars are a little heavy, but nothing abnormal.

I can't tell if you had 94 + 10 or 94 total (84+10). I assume it's the former, so looking at just the singles:

75 (this is only 18,750 iso, not sure where you got 31,560 but this number should be divisible by 250, so it's definitely off)
19 or

That's about 20% three star+. That's considerably higher than 2.4%.

Math out of the way, this is a fun way to do it if you're not tracking actively. Thanks for sharing it.

El Satanno

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

1) The rates for getting 3* pulls is about equal for silver and gold tokens.

Err...what?

For your silvers: Based on the iso, it's looks like:
325
79
10

Which is 78.5% - 19.1% - 2.4%. That's pretty standard distribution. The two stars are a little heavy, but nothing abnormal.

I can't tell if you had 94 + 10 or 94 total (84+10). I assume it's the former, so looking at just the singles:

75 (this is only 18,750 iso, not sure where you got 31,560 but this number should be divisible by 250, so it's definitely off)
19 or

That's about 20% three star+. That's considerably higher than 2.4%.

Math out of the way, this is a fun way to do it if you're not tracking actively. Thanks for sharing it.

Please note that I said "completely subjective" conclusions there. Please read that as "taken with creative liberties for the sake of amusement." For reference, it was 94 tokens plus a 10-pack for a total of 104 gold pulls.

As for the discrepancy with the Iso sales out of those golds, I strongly suspect that since I was forced to break up my opening due to work reasons, I ended up gaining and selling some other assortment of covers or rewards that tossed the numbers off. Obviously I was only paying very close attention to the Iso during the silver pulls. My real focus as you can imagine was on the 3* covers.

Anyway, hope it gives everyone some small entertainment. I'll be back at the end of this season for round two of "Don't you have anything better to do with two hours of your time?!"

mjh

those are some of the worst draws I've ever seen.

D3 really needs to answer for this. It's out of hand now

AXP_isme

I have a hunch that there's an x% chance that a standard token resolves as a heroic token and (1-x) as a 1*. Anecdotally I've observed ~1/40 chance at a 3*, broadly consistent with these observations, which would back into approximately 1/8 chance of a standard resolving heroically.
Anyone else have observations to support or disprove the contention?

Unknown

AXP_isme wrote:

I have a hunch that there's an x% chance that a standard token resolves as a heroic token and (1-x) as a 1*. Anecdotally I've observed ~1/40 chance at a 3*, broadly consistent with these observations, which would back into approximately 1/8 chance of a standard resolving heroically.
Anyone else have observations to support or disprove the contention?

This thread and spreadsheet seems to lean against that hypothesis: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1227

GrumpySmurf1002

AXP_isme wrote:

I have a hunch that there's an x% chance that a standard token resolves as a heroic token and (1-x) as a 1*. Anecdotally I've observed ~1/40 chance at a 3*, broadly consistent with these observations, which would back into approximately 1/8 chance of a standard resolving heroically.
Anyone else have observations to support or disprove the contention?

There's a thread with user collected data for the standards viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1227, and yes, it works out around 2.5% for a 3* (1 in 40).

However:
Odds on a regular heroics are 83.6, 14, 2.4
Odds of standards based on that thread are 13.8, 2.4, 0.02, which normalized to 100 is 85.1, 14.8, .1.

It looks close, but the severe lack of 4* pulls from the standards means it's more probable that the standard has it's own set of odds, rather than just resolving as a Heroic.

El Satanno

That brings to mind another funny thing. We can tap that little ? on the various gold screens to see exactly how ****...sorry, what the odds are for those tokens. Why isn't there one of those for the standards? We all get more of them by an order of magnitude, is it not valuable information to share? My conspiracy sense is tingling, and it's telling me that the unpublished odds would reveal that you're about as likely to get a 3*!

slidecage

500 tokens in a month? 15 tokens a day did not even think that could be done

El Satanno

slidecage wrote:

500 tokens in a month? 15 tokens a day did not even think that could be done

If you sit down and count, you'll surely find you're getting a lot more than you think. This is true for all rewards, provided you are playing pretty regularly and fairly intensely. I rank pretty well in both PvP and PvE so it's a combination of grinding rewards and placement that nets those numbers. Hell, I'm sure there are plenty of folk on the forum here who would easily outstrip that number if they chose to follow the same path I did. It also didn't hurt that the ran the IsoBro PvE which is arguably the best event out there, both for fun and rewards.

GrumpySmurf1002

El Satanno wrote:

slidecage wrote:

500 tokens in a month? 15 tokens a day did not even think that could be done

If you sit down and count, you'll surely find you're getting a lot more than you think. This is true for all rewards, provided you are playing pretty regularly and fairly intensely. I rank pretty well in both PvP and PvE so it's a combination of grinding rewards and placement that nets those numbers. Hell, I'm sure there are plenty of folk on the forum here who would easily outstrip that number if they chose to follow the same path I did. It also didn't hurt that the ran the IsoBro PvE which is arguably the best event out there, both for fun and rewards.

Yeah actually now that it's mentioned, 500 is a lot.

I think my yearly total so far is only around that many (might be 600), and there's maybe 2 events where I didn't get the progression tokens. I'm not grinding PvE for placement any more, so that certainly explains a little bit of the gap, but I don't think there's that many available in the pve subs.

El Satanno

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

El Satanno wrote:

Yeah actually now that it's mentioned, 500 is a lot.

I think my yearly total so far is only around that many (might be 600), and there's maybe 2 events where I didn't get the progression tokens. I'm not grinding PvE for placement any more, so that certainly explains a little bit of the gap, but I don't think there's that many available in the pve subs.

I may have had a grip of silver tokens sitting around before I decided not to open anything throughout the season. Even so, it was surely less than 100. I suppose if anyone is still playing this game in another month, we'll have a chance to see what the future holds.