What is up with the game the last 2 days.

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  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Not sure which node, but one of the Loki matches in the Gauntlet, I managed to get 4 match-5's and a glorious cascade that let me wipe out Loki on the first turn. The screen was absolutely covered in his CD tiles. I took one on the chin shortly after against Black Panther where he got black cascade after black cascade, giving him enough to drop RotP, play his turn, then drop another RotP, wiping out my entire team. They come and go on both sides.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    camichan wrote:
    Someone else or perhaps many others have probably done this before, but just to try to gain some perspective I tried to calculate some statistical probability (corrections welcome).

    chances of getting two consecutive draws of any color = 14.28571% or 1/7 = 7*(1/7)^2
    chances of getting three consecutive draws of any color = 2.04082% or 1/49 = 7*(1/7)^3
    chances of getting four consecutive draws of any color = 0.29155% or 1/343 = ...
    chances of getting five consecutive draws of any color = 0.04165% or 1/2401
    chances of getting six consecutive draws of any color = 0.00595% or 1/16807
    chances of getting seven consecutive draws of any color = 0.00085% or 1/117649

    If you play on average 50 matches versus the AI per day with 12 moves per match (12 for you, 12 for the AI for a total of 24 moves per match), you should observe

    a random match-3, 24.5 times/day
    a random match-4, 3.4 times/day
    a random match-5, 0.5 times/day, once every couple days.
    a random match-6, 0.071 times/day, once every two weeks.
    a random match-7, 0.01 times/day, once every 98 days.

    If you observe these events at a frequency significantly higher, statistically speaking, than the above, skepticism is warranted. However, these figures would only account for situations where the matched tiles fell directly from the top of the screen. It wouldn't account for AI or user induced matches, which would be more frequent since it's deliberately not random. So frequencies significantly above these rates are very likely to be observed.

    I did have a "7-banger" fall from the top of the screen the other day, so my mean time between events (seeing that again) should be in about 3 months if I play at the specified rate.

    I've stopped counting how often I see 7 or even 8-banger drops, I've seen it happen even multiple times in a single day...

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