Season X 10-pack pulls

Joey Jellico

ZERO

Think I'm done with pvp

squirrel1120

Forgot to post when I hit it...

2 golds, but none useful. Patch yellow and hulk green -> iso

Grift

3 for me. cap red, falcon blue and punisher red

AxeVirtuoso

ZERO!

For the third time out of the last 4 10packs I won What are the odds of that happening if the advertised drop rates were actually right? Any mathematicians around here?

Unknown

Arondite

AxeVirtuoso wrote:

ZERO!

For the third time out of the last 4 10packs I won What are the odds of that happening if the advertised drop rates were actually right? Any mathematicians around here?

If you can post the listed odds I can happily calculate it for you. I can't access my phone atm.

Unknown

Arondite wrote:

AxeVirtuoso wrote:

ZERO!

For the third time out of the last 4 10packs I won What are the odds of that happening if the advertised drop rates were actually right? Any mathematicians around here?

If you can post the listed odds I can happily calculate it for you. I can't access my phone atm.

I have the exact odds at work, but I remember its around a 10-15% chance that you won't get any golds. It's higher than I think most people think it is.

Arondite

Ben Grimm wrote:

Arondite wrote:

AxeVirtuoso wrote:

ZERO!

For the third time out of the last 4 10packs I won What are the odds of that happening if the advertised drop rates were actually right? Any mathematicians around here?

If you can post the listed odds I can happily calculate it for you. I can't access my phone atm.

I have the exact odds at work, but I remember its around a 10-15% chance that you won't get any golds. It's higher than I think most people think it is.

True, but across 4 packs that's a bit lower.

Of course, the odds for an individual 10 pack after 3 failed 10 packs remains unchanged because odds don't care about past occurrences or patterns, but across all 4 you can still calculate the odds to be a bit lower than the odds of a single 10 pack.

Unknown

pulled a black blade and black gamora

jffdougan

My two were MoStorm black and yellow Goddess of Thunder. Selling that new parody of a character to make room for the Goddess.

veneretio

First 10 pack ever!



:luke cage:

Trisul

I am sad. Zero 3*s or 4*s makes me sad.

Unknown

and 2250 iso . Oh well at least I needed that torch cover.

GTannen73

AxeVirtuoso wrote:

ZERO!

For the third time out of the last 4 10packs I won What are the odds of that happening if the advertised drop rates were actually right? Any mathematicians around here?

The chance of getting zero gold covers in a Heroic 10-pack is 9.7%.* I calculated that here: viewtopic.php?f=20&t=20214
Therefore, the chances of choosing four 10-packs at random and finding exactly three of them devoid of gold is (.097)^3 * .903 * 4, which comes out to approximately 0.33%. Keep in mind that this number only applies before looking at any of the packs--if you've whiffed on two out of the last three packs, the chances that you'll whiff again are 9.7%

As it turns out, I'm in the same boat as you. I got zero in my pack from Seasons VII, VIII, and X. I did get four in my Season IX pack, but even so, that's just an average of one per pack, when the expected value is 2.1. Yuck.

* As I typed this, I realized that I didn't check to see if the odds for Season X were the same as Season IX, but it's almost 4am, so I'm not pulling it up now. Kitty it.

Unknown

Yellow Sentry and the rest 2*... second season in a row with only one gold and for a character I had no covers for before. Not sure if that's better or worse then no golds at all, cause now he's taking up roster space...

skippytx

My string of exceptional luck with the 10 packs seems to be over.

This season I pulled:

4* Thor - Yellow
3* Luke Cage - Red

** Star Characters

2 x Moonstone - Red
2x Magneto - Red
Magneto - Purple
2 x Hawkeye - Blue
Johnny Storm - Black

I can use both of the gold tokens. My first 4* Thor is her weakest cover, I'm not sure I'll keep her

Curiosity

And another 10 2* covers.

MISTER GRUMPY FACE

Arondite

GTannen73 wrote:

AxeVirtuoso wrote:

ZERO!

For the third time out of the last 4 10packs I won What are the odds of that happening if the advertised drop rates were actually right? Any mathematicians around here?

The chance of getting zero gold covers in a Heroic 10-pack is 9.7%.* I calculated that here: viewtopic.php?f=20&t=20214
Therefore, the chances of choosing four 10-packs at random and finding exactly three of them devoid of gold is (.097)^3 * .903 * 4, which comes out to approximately 0.33%. Keep in mind that this number only applies before looking at any of the packs--if you've whiffed on two out of the last three packs, the chances that you'll whiff again are 9.7%

As it turns out, I'm in the same boat as you. I got zero in my pack from Seasons VII, VIII, and X. I did get four in my Season IX pack, but even so, that's just an average of one per pack, when the expected value is 2.1. Yuck.

* As I typed this, I realized that I didn't check to see if the odds for Season X were the same as Season IX, but it's almost 4am, so I'm not pulling it up now. Kitty it.

Can confirm this post is correct.

The Gunslinger

and the rest were 's.

At least it wasn't a complete dud.

alaeth

2500 ISO in mine...