Opening Token Bundles

M C K

I lurk on a forum for the most part, then I post a bunch of stuff. It's kind of my thing.

How many standard tiles do you let accumulate before you open them? Generally I sit around 30, but I have let it go to 50 or more depending on where I am. I notice that if I open more at once, my chances at pulling 3-stars or better improves, and I (sadly) have the statistical analysis to back it up.

How about heroics? I know it mostly depends on who is vaulted...but I have waited once until I had 50 and opened them with moderate success (pulled two 4-stars last time around, but both were IWs...).

Or do people open them right away? Or never open them?

san

Oddly enough, I've also noticed similar results with the standard tokens. Not sure if it's just a cognitive bias, and I have not kept stats, but I try to leave them until about 30... sometimes this is REALLY hard.

On the other hand, a few times I have opened them when at 1-2 and have received 3* characters (last time being Patch green).

Unknown

i pulled a sentry green earlier today, and a cmarv red earlier in the week...both from standard tokens, but i didnt need either. but prior to this i must've been on drought for a month...i feel like its pretty random. i saved up over 100 standard tokens once and recall only pulling one 3*

Taganov

san-mpq wrote:

Oddly enough, I've also noticed similar results with the standard tokens. Not sure if it's just a cognitive bias, and I have not kept stats, but I try to leave them until about 30... sometimes this is REALLY hard.

On the other hand, a few times I have opened them when at 1-2 and have received 3* characters (last time being Patch green).

This. I'm leaning toward cognitive bias myself.

Hasn't stopped me hoarding tokens though!

AXP_isme

To my shame I read this and thought "I'd like to see those stats".
Nuff said.

dider152

M C K wrote:

I lurk on a forum for the most part, then I post a bunch of stuff. It's kind of my thing.

How many standard tiles do you let accumulate before you open them? Generally I sit around 30, but I have let it go to 50 or more depending on where I am. I notice that if I open more at once, my chances at pulling 3-stars or better improves, and I (sadly) have the statistical analysis to back it up.

Can you post those stats? I would be interested to see them.

Personally, a vast majority of my 3* and 4* characters have come from standard packs. Most often, I open each one as I get them, but I get 2 or more only if I don't feel like stopping.

Conspiracy theory: The standard tokens page doesn't have the question mark that shows the drop rates. Could it be that the drop rates are actually higher on the standard packs for 3 and 4*s than all the others, but the other packs are the money makers, so D3 wants you to think that so you would buy them?

M C K

So here's a snippet of my analysis:

According to my spreadsheet (OMG there's a spreadsheet) I've opened 555 total Standard tokens since 8/13/14. From that point until about 9/13, I was opening Standard tokens mostly at the time I acquired them, for a total of 34 in the timespan (16 separate days pulled, just over 2 per day, and I pulled between 1 and 6 on each day recorded).

Of the 34 (Standard tokens only):

• 31 1* (91.18%)
• 3 2* (8.82%)
• 0 3* (0%)
• 0 4* (0%)

After 9/13, I attempted to hoard Standard tokens so I would pull at least 30 at once. My numbers improved dramatically (Standard tokens only):

• 521 Standard tokens opened since 10/3/14
• 442 1* (84.84%)
• 65 2* (12.48%)
• 14 3* (2.69%)
• 0 4* (0%)

Clearly better odds. Kind of wish I had more data points from prior to 9/13, but I think there are enough that it tells a tale.

Unknown

You guys realize there's a token pull spreadsheet data collection spreadsheet
In the " character discussion " sub forum, I think.
You can Add your opening results to it and peruse the submitted pulls.
my pulls have been on par with the probabilities outlined by the results of that data. I concur.
e.g. 100 standard tokens = 3-5 three starred characters

Unknown

I opened them whenever I remember or whenever I feel lucky.

M C K

I was aware of the sheet, but my intention was to prove that bundle pulls of a certain amount are more "productive" than pulling immediately on acquirement.

Jim_MatriX_cz

I have experience, that pulling more of them in a row increase the chances (at least I feel like it does) and also increase probability of pulling *** from gold token.
I mean if I pull 20 standards with only */**, there is many times higher success ratio to pull *** from gold tokens.
IMHO.

metabelian

I open them as soon as I get them and I've got three gold since early December. I really doubt there's any difference in when/ how many at a time you open.

Unknown

I open tokens as soon as I get them and I've been on a really lucky streak of gold's from standards. I've pulled 4 gold's in the last 2 weeks from standards.

GrumpySmurf1002

M C K wrote:

So here's a snippet of my analysis:

According to my spreadsheet (OMG there's a spreadsheet) I've opened 555 total Standard tokens since 8/13/14. From that point until about 9/13, I was opening Standard tokens mostly at the time I acquired them, for a total of 34 in the timespan (16 separate days pulled, just over 2 per day, and I pulled between 1 and 6 on each day recorded).

Of the 34 (Standard tokens only):

• 31 1* (91.18%)
• 3 2* (8.82%)
• 0 3* (0%)
• 0 4* (0%)

After 9/13, I attempted to hoard Standard tokens so I would pull at least 30 at once. My numbers improved dramatically (Standard tokens only):

• 521 Standard tokens opened since 10/3/14
• 442 1* (84.84%)
• 65 2* (12.48%)
• 14 3* (2.69%)
• 0 4* (0%)

Clearly better odds. Kind of wish I had more data points from prior to 9/13, but I think there are enough that it tells a tale.

I also have kept track. The one time I opened 30+ standards at once, I (opened 35 total), I pulled zero 3*. My drop rate otherwise is 2.21% on 1086 tokens. Based on that, and your assumption that 34 pulls is enough to tell a tale, I can conclude that pulling 30+ at once destroys your pull rate.

The user collected sample of 47k+ tokens (link here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1227), the drop rate is around 2.5% for 3*+. Since May 8th, it's 2.33%. Neither you nor I are deviating from what can be considered average.

Moral of the story, when you do funky things with your patterns, you can see all sorts of funky trends. The drop rate is what it is, whether you open 1, 10, or 100 at once. (although it'd be nice if the Devs posted the true numbers at some point, like they do with every other token)

M C K

Maybe the best thing about this thread is that it TOTALLY isn't a plea to get the Standard token inventory/rates published.

I repeat, in NO WAY am I pleading for this information from Dave, Ice, or any other game representative.

Of course, if they decide to publish that information I will not refuse it, and furthermore shall I consider this thread itself the catalyst in its publication.

Omega Blacc

Sometimes if I have about 10K Iso saved up, I'll splurge on standards until I pull a Gold and then I stop. They say each token pull is its own draw, but I feel like every draw is connected somehow.

I play a ton, so I earn tokens left and right. I just went through a mini-drought recently (1-2 weeks) and then yesterday I earned my 10-pack for Season X.
I netted two 2* Ms. Marvels, a yellow Patch, a green Patch, a Loki black (which I already have maxed = 500 Iso), and a Blade black. Success!

With those Patch cards and the daily reward that I'll get in 4 days I'll have a fully covered Patch.

Opened my Hotshot 300 token just now and landed on a Deadpool.

This is how the game goes. You have plenty sometimes. Sometimes you have droughts. The characters you pull often correlate with who is essential, or lately, who just got unvaulted. I've earned enough tokens to know this is a fact.

avs962

During the last run if Prodigal Son, I ended each sub (from my alliance and casual play rewards) with about six standards. I pulled a three star after all but one sub. I thought it was weird. I feel like I get nothing when I open one at a time. And I've never hoarded more than like eight. Take from that what you will

Unknown

Not opening tokens is something only people with maxed xforces and goddesses should do.

As someone with missing 3* covers you should always open them ASAP, so you know who you need to jam your iso into. Spend 30k iso levelling your Patch 13 times and get your last 3 hood blue covers in a row? Bad times.

The only real reason to keep tokens back is if you're hoping they're gonna get you a better character that wasn't released yet. Since we're not gonna get better characters than xf/gt for a while (if ever), open those tokens.

Unknown

avs962 wrote:

During the last run if Prodigal Son, I ended each sub (from my alliance and casual play rewards) with about six standards. I pulled a three star after all but one sub. I thought it was weird. I feel like I get nothing when I open one at a time. And I've never hoarded more than like eight. Take from that what you will

Nice that your sig is there to remind people of how much your experiment means

ballingbees

Hoarding standard tokens does nothing to improve the luck, for me at least. I usually hoard >100 before opening, there was once I opened about 150 without a single gold, couldn't believe it, then proceeded to open more with Iso until the count reached 250, still not one single gold. That was before the bug for mass selling was fixed, so I had to delete 250 useless covers one by one..

Last batch of 222 standards yielded a single gold - Spiderman blue. So far my count for standard tokens stands at 13 golds drawn from 1100 opened, a glorious rate of 1.18%.