Season IX 10-pack pulls, with related probabilities

GTannen73

After getting back to back gold-free 10-packs in Seasons VII and VIII, I was inspired to calculate the probabilities of each possible number of gold covers in a Heroic 10-pack*. These numbers have changed as of Season IX--Previously, there were three characters in the pack with a 1% chance each, but with the addition of Goddess Thor, D3 has dropped the odds for each individual to 0.7%. The odds are unchanged (0.9% for each of 20 characters), so your chances of each cover being gold in your 10-pack have dropped from 21% to 20.8%.

The probability of each individual number breaks down as follows, to the nearest tenth of a percent:

No : 9.7%
1 : 25.5%
2 : 30.1%
3 : 21.1%
4 : 9.7%
5 : 3.1%
6 : 0.7%
7 or more : ~0.1%

So, two gold covers is the most likely result, which is not a surprise. You're more likely to get one than three, and it's about equally likely that you'll get four as it is none at all.

Hope you found this informative. Math geek out.

* The numbers are the same for a 42-pack (you didn't actually buy one, did you??), but the gold chances are lower for individual Heroic tokens (0.6% per 4 , 0.7% per 3 , for a total of 16.4%). I will calculate chances for piles of individual tokens by request.

Nefesh

If it's not very complicated, would be nice to know probability of individual tokens.
I've been thinking what is better - to buy a 10-pack for 2800 or 28 daily deals for the same price. It's hypothetical question (personally I'm not going to buy any of them) but quite interesting I think.

GrumpySmurf1002

GTannen73 wrote:

I will calculate chances for piles of individual tokens by request.

For the DIY population, if you're handy with excel (and really, even if you're not), it's pretty easy. Just drop this in any cell:

=BINOMDIST(1,20,0.164,FALSE)

Change the blue number to how many tokens you have.
Then change the red number to tell you the chance of getting that many tokens.

In this example, if you have 20 single heroics, this will give you the chance of drawing exactly 1 gold.

Thanks GTannen for doing this, had it in my plans for this season's pulls.

Nefesh

Thanks for the formula. Got something like this:

Unknown

Purple Hawkeye
Red 2* Wolverine
Yellow Ares
Blue 2* Magneto
Black Moonstone
Green Rocket and Groot!
Green Gamora!
Red 2* Thor
Black Ms. Marvel
Red Hawkeye

So, 2 3*s, both usable, and 8 2*s, none usable. Better than I had any right to expect, but I would like some Red Ms. Marvels, which is the only 2* I need. Never pulled a random one.

Unknown

And 8 2*. I only needed the green cover to max him, although I still need one more green to respec.

Nellobee

My worst 10 pack to date-0 golds.

Unknown

Yellow Goddess of Thunder was my only gold pull this time around.

Unknown

Gold pulls this time around
Green Loki, Green Rocket and Groot and a Red patch.

My best 10 pack yet

GrumpySmurf1002

Hood Blue (sold) and Deadpool black.

Houtro

I get the usual 9.7% which means 0 already a classic!

wymtime

I got a red patch sold for ISO then I got a GREEN XFORCE!!! That gave me 4 green and then I had enough HP to buy cover number 5!! My X-force is now 5,5,2 and I am a very happy camper with my 10 pack.
Best cover that I got since season 4.

GrimSkald

(needed, mine is presently 5/1/2 - and really? The code for Dr. Octopus is "docock?")
(Needed as much as anything for IW is needed, I have her at 4/0/2)
(the one color of the hood I keep drawing. Ah well. 4/5/4 isn't a bad build. Nothing with 5 blue is a bad build.)

Not a bad draw, really. I'll definitely take it.

Unknown

Sitting on a bunch, but figured I'd open one for fun. I was wrong. It was not fun.

In order:











So... 2750

Unknown

And 8 2* for ISO.

Needed She-Hulk and XForce covers are always welcome.

Unknown

9 ** and an unneeded yellow Patch.

SnowcaTT

9 **, one green Groot. Do the three other heroic tokens I opened at the same time that all gave me ** count?

Wonko33

After 3 straight seasons of 2*, I'm really happy with this season

Groot green and yellow needed both
deadpool red. (To completed to 5, BOOYAH )

Then 2* ISO , moonstone party (3 of them)

Previous seasons were such a let down, I felt it was a waste of a season, I would like them to guaranty one gold coin. This one was awesome, 3 3* I needed is more than I could ask for.

Nefesh

That's it... disappointment as always...

san

The rest were

Man_Thing

The Iso-8:
I got three 2* ;
Two 2* : 1 & 1 (Merry Christmas, I guess) &
Four more 2*'s: , , &
On the plus-side, I also got , which I needed. This was the only cover I was missing to have him fully-covered in all of the right colors. I'm actually pretty happy with this pull. Good luck to everyone else. May Santa bring you all the covers you need.