bad luck or crazy low droprates on heroic tokens?

pony mad

Since the end of the season reward, i collected a total of 23 Heroic tokens (single).
i got 7 from the season ending (single+alliance reward) and i earned 16 in the following lightning rounds.

out of those 23 tokens, i got 2 ***, She-Hulk and Cpt Marvel... and 21 ** for ISO. Did they change something in the droprate of *** covers or am i just the definition of being unlucky?

to those 23 heroic tokens, i added 5 simulator tokens, also only **.

anyone else experiencing something similar?

Unknown

You're going to get good runs and bad runs. I once went three weeks without pulling a single 3* - and then pulled like six over two days. Even within a single day - the day they rotated the tokens on the first day of Season VII - I pulled more than twice as many 3*s as I should have out of my standards, less than half as many as I should have out of my Heroics, and about what I should have out of my ten-packs. Your sample size of 23 tokens isn't big enough to draw any wide conclusions; pulling 2 is about half of average, but you're going to get runs like that.

Unknown

I opened my 3 10 packs from season reward. I got 2 three stars. Fortunately for me, one of which I actually needed.

Unknown

Someone needs to make a good post explaining probabilities and get it permanently stickied.

Unknown

I've opened 2 10-packs in the past 2 weeks, both with all 2*. I don't think anything has been changed per se, I just think sometimes the numbers just don't fall your way.

pony mad

hmm, it would be nice if after like every 5 tokens, the droprate would jump up by 1% and be reset after receiving a . that way luck wouldnt be your only ally on this crusade

Unknown

It's a dry spell. Sometimes you pull 3 sentry red covers from standard tokens on sequential sundays, sometimes your season 10 pack and every Heroic, event or standard token since has nothing of but moonstones. Life is like a box of chocolates. You're not supposed to think about it, you're supposed to just consume it and move on.

GrumpySmurf1002

The 3*+ drop rate on the single Heroics is about 16.7% (1/6), at least last I looked. Using that as the baseline:

On 23 pulls, you'll pull exactly 2 covers 15.3% of the time. So about 2 times in 13 that you save exactly 23 heroics.
You'll pull no more than 2 (0-1-2) 23.7% of the time. So nearly 1 in 4 times, that's the best you're gonna do.

3-4 tokens is the most likely result, each happening 21.39% of the time, which is obviously close to the expected rate (1 in 6).

Oops...just noticed you also added 5 more. So on 28 tokens:

Exactly 2: 9.17%
2 of less: 13.18%
Most likely result: 4 (19.87%)

Like anything when talking probabilities, if you get enough of them, it will even out in the long run. But the long run is a long time for a player.

Last thing to keep in mind: Those drop percentages are for the player base as a whole. I have to brush up on those calculations, but lets just say it's a statistical likelihood someone in the player base is rolling in 3* drop luck, someone else had the horseshoe surgically removed from their posterior, and everyone else will fall somewhere in between.

MarvelMan

I pulled exactly ZERO 3* or 4*s from event/Heroic tokens during Season VII. I did pull 2x 3*s from the progression 10-pack though.

Amazeballs

I'm probably going to start stockpiling tokens again. I had a ridiculous run over the last 2 months pulling 3* (some of which were actually needed). Over the last 2 weeks, it's been back to awful. Decided today to open 20 standards, 6 event tokens, and 2 ten packs... all of which resulted in a blue She Hulk and a purple Fury. Shouldn't have opened them in hindsight, but oh well.

In short, bad luck.

Unknown

The slight chance to win something good and an overwhelming chance to get something utterly useless is not a reward...FYI. I know y'all have said people like spending money on tokens with no guarantee of 3*'s. However, could there be different tokens (unpurchasable) that guarantee 3*'s for tokens earned as rewards. This way players can be rewarded, but it won't hurt mpq sales for people who like the chance of wasting their money for nothing.

brisashi

At this point I assume a heroic token is 250 iso.

Practically always right.

DD-The-Mighty

pony mad wrote:

hmm, it would be nice if after like every 5 tokens, the droprate would jump up by 1% and be reset after receiving a . that way luck wouldn't be your only ally on this crusade

You want Avengers Alliance's cover system for their lock box heroes. Open 10 boxes/tokens, you are guaranteed to get one cover. if that cover is a duplicate (you already have it) it adds to a meter that guarantees you get a new cover. The number of boxes that you would need to guarantee the full 8 different covers to get the hero is pretty high ( and VERY expensive if you Cash it) but it at least lends an air of inevitability.

But you'll never get something like that here. That would be too advantageous to the player. Casino rule #1:The House always wins.

zonatahunt

I've opened 53 heroic tokens in a row that are all 2 's. This is the worst run I've ever been on.

Unknown

crazy low drop rate

chaos01

I was on a string of 26 consecutive 2 stars from heroics when I opened my nefarious foes and got a.... Beast yellow. I would probably have rather continued my streak. Beast sucks.

Nellobee

Both. The rate is too low, and you were unlucky.

_RiO_

Someone ought to crunch the math on this, but it could well cost you upwards of 1000 USD just to assemble a character from random pulls.
The drop-rates and price-points are ridiculous.