Rewards Probability: insanely low or am I just cursed?

Unknown

I keep getting 20 Iso after completing The Hulk missions.

I'm out of health packs (spent them on girl-on-girl violence).

I keep seeing all these tokens and 500 iso rewards leering at me.

Those Hawkeyes?

NEVER GOT A SINGLE ONE. EVEN DURING THE FIRST RUN OF THE HULK EVENT.

I need to do something else with my life instead of grinding for 20 Iso for hours.

I know there was a thread on this some time ago, but I can't find it.

I'm just mad.

Unknown

I'm also sick of the 20iso **** I beat all the canada levels 4 times a peice and guess what. 20iso all the fricking way. I'm getting tired of grinding for rewards just to have to beat each lvl 10 times with over half of those times being 20iso!!!!

Unknown

I've been getting a ton of 20 iso rewards as well, but how can you not get a Hawkeye the first time you do that mission?

Unknown

Misguided wrote:

I've been getting a ton of 20 iso rewards as well, but how can you not get a Hawkeye the first time you do that mission?

If you don't have a Punisher, you cannot do the mission.

Spencer75

There might something to this besides a misunderstanding of probability.

Every so often I come across a mission that won't reward me anything besides the initial reward. After that I just get 20 iso. I've done the Canada hulk mission "Running" I believe 6 times now. No tears beyond the initial one. The chances of that are around 1 in 1000 (25% times itself 5 times)

Granted this will happen on occasion to some of us, but this isn't the first time this has happened to me.

Unknown

Spencer75 wrote:

There might something to this besides a misunderstanding of probability.

Every so often I come across a mission that won't reward me anything besides the initial reward. After that I just get 20 iso. I've done the Canada hulk mission "Running" I believe 6 times now. No tears beyond the initial one. The chances of that are around 1 in 1000 (25% times itself 5 times)

Granted this will happen on occasion to some of us, but this isn't the first time this has happened to me.

Is it not 50%^5, making it more like 3% chance?

Spencer75

Just did it a 7th time.

20 iso again

Unknown

Misguided wrote:

Spencer75 wrote:

There might something to this besides a misunderstanding of probability.

Every so often I come across a mission that won't reward me anything besides the initial reward. After that I just get 20 iso. I've done the Canada hulk mission "Running" I believe 6 times now. No tears beyond the initial one. The chances of that are around 1 in 1000 (25% times itself 5 times)

Granted this will happen on occasion to some of us, but this isn't the first time this has happened to me.

Is it not 50%^5, making it more like 3% chance?

No. It's a 50% chance every single time.

The odds of having a streak of 5 in a row is roughly 3%, but that doesn't change the fact that the next time you play you have a 50% chance. And with a large enough data set even 0.0000000000000000000000001% chances will occur.

Spencer75

Repeated for the 8th time. Finally got a different reward, 100 iso.

Spencer75

50?

I thought you had a 1/4 chance of getting any specific reward every time.

So if you had 3/4 rewards left you had a 75% chance of getting a reward...but this isn't the case?

So you're telling me you have a 50% chance of getting a reward whether you have 1, 2 or 3 items left?

And yes I understand these rare statistical occurrences happen given a large enough data set, I acknowledged that.

With a 50 percent chance of getting that second item this is far less unexpected and rare than if it were 75 percent.

Unknown

Well it creates more point variance on the leaderboards and causes scores to push up to make 50k Punisher easier.

Unknown

It was changed several patches ago to a flat 50/50 chance for rewards past the first one. It used to be 75/50/25, but the streaks were really absurd for that last one.

Unknown

Zathrus wrote:

The odds of having a streak of 5 in a row is roughly 3%

What a coincidence, that's exactly what I just said.

Unknown

Misguided wrote:

What a coincidence, that's exactly what I just said.

Fine! Be that way!

Marty17

Longest streak for me is 7x. More annoying when I've only obtained 1/4 rewards, so expecting getting the other 3 to be higher than 20 iso's.

Unknown

I've gone at least 5 many times in the Hulk event. This completely dissuades me from grinding the impossible missions.

I'd be shocked if this was still 50/50 chance each time. Not saying it has changed, but equally you should see 3 rewards in 4 chances at least some of the time as well. I haven't seen that in the last 10-12 days of playing this Hulk event. There seems to always be that run of 20 Iso.

Unknown

To get 20 Iso8 10 times in a row when some other reward is available is 1 in 1024, which sounds pretty bad odds but it's not as unlikely as it sounds when you consider an average person probably plays 100 PvE matches over the duration of The Hulk event. One full farming cycle is something like 25 PvE games, and that's just one sub-bracket. Although the odds of bad luck is fairly unlikely, people really forget that they're also playing a very large number of matches.

Unknown

I wonder if it doesn't do a 50% check, if success, picks one of the 4, if one chosen has been achieved, gives 20 ISO anyhow. It certainly doesn't seem like a simple 50% to me. Maybe something worth documenting, if someone is up to it?

Kelbris

Anyone else feel that sexual tension mounting between Misguided and Zathrus?

Unknown

Kelbris wrote:

Anyone else feel that sexual tension mounting between Misguided and Zathrus?

Pretty sure it's just you.

Unknown

Missions refreshed.

After playing them once, I'm reluctant to repeat them... I'll wait until the rubber banding takes effect.

I still haven't recovered (also I didn't get a single 500; it was a few tokens and then hammer buffs all the way /wrists).