Are recruit tokens broken?

Unknown

I have gotten 18 recruit tokens that are guaranteed 2 star or higher so far this season.

That's 2 from Earth's Mightiest, Children of the Atom, Real Steel, Smash Hit and the Gauntlet.

6 from the deadpool event, 2 for player placement in nodes, 2 for alliance placement and 2 from progression rewards.

1 token from daily reward day 206.

1 token for getting 1800 in the season.

I have gotten exactly one gold cover.

And it was a daredevil cover.

So I'm basically 0 for 18 so far this season on token draws.

Are they glitched or something? On heroic tokens, there is a 16.5% chance of getting a 3 or 4 star cover. That would mean, on average, I should get 3 gold covers per 18 tokens.

Am I really 3 times as unlucky as statistically average? Or is everyone experiencing this ****?

Unknown

Short Answer: No you are not unlucky. Your understanding of "statistical average" is a bit off.

Longer Answer: Each draw is an independent event. (Lot's of intermediate/advanced statistics stuff here) It isn't until almost 40 draws that you would fall outside of the normal distribution. On average I'm sure you do get something closer to 16.5%, but there you would need a few hundred data points to see for sure. Even then, a pull rate of anywhere between 10-23% would be reasonable until you near 500 data points. Your experience is just one sliver on the bell curve of everyone's pulls for that token.

Go to a random number generator site, pick any amount of digits from 0-9 (easier to recognize) and let it run 1000+ simulations, you'll see a bunch of strings of the same digit in a row, that's where you are now.

In my case during thick as thieves, I got 3 gold in 4 pulls of regular tokens one day, but I rarely pulled even a 2* lately. It's the law of large numbers, it has nothing to do with luck.

Unknown

onimus wrote:

I have gotten 18 recruit tokens that are guaranteed 2 star or higher so far this season.

That's 2 from Earth's Mightiest, Children of the Atom, Real Steel, Smash Hit and the Gauntlet.

6 from the deadpool event, 2 for player placement in nodes, 2 for alliance placement and 2 from progression rewards.

1 token from daily reward day 206.

1 token for getting 1800 in the season.

I have gotten exactly one gold cover.

And it was a daredevil cover.

So I'm basically 0 for 18 so far this season on token draws.

Are they glitched or something? On heroic tokens, there is a 16.5% chance of getting a 3 or 4 star cover. That would mean, on average, I should get 3 gold covers per 18 tokens.

Am I really 3 times as unlucky as statistically average? Or is everyone experiencing this tinykitty?

Yes you are. I'm stealing all your luck. I'm sorry

Unknown

I opened 300 standards last night in search of Daken and MHawkeye. Totaled 1 Daken, 2 MHawkeyes, and 1 Gold (Doom). How's that for RNG love?

mohio

To answer your thread title instead of your actual post, yes, recruit tokens are completely broken. There is no deadpool or beast or captain marvel or even she hulk. Some of these characters have been out for months and they still can't come up with a tenable solution for adding them to tokens (unless they're featured in an event).

As for your luck. It's a small blip, so certainly you should have expected more, but it's not so out of the ordinary for what happened.

GrumpySmurf1002

Following up on fakeaseizure's post, you have about a ~17.7% chance of pulling 0 or 1 covers from a string of 18 pulls. So about 1 in 6 times you open 18, that's all you get. (assuming the 16.5% number is correct, I'm not verifying it)

The 'average', which is 3 covers, is the most likely outcome for a specific number, but you can only expect exactly 3 covers a hair under 25% of the time, and you can only expect at least 3 covers 59% of the time.

Unknown

OTOH: with Heroic tokens you have a 100% chance at pulling a cover (2,3,4 , , , , , , ), thems pretty good odds.

but then you have 0% chance at pulling a 1 So I guess that is good.

Spencer75

fakeaseizure wrote:

Short Answer: No you are not unlucky. Your understanding of "statistical average" is a bit off.

Longer Answer: Each draw is an independent event. (Lot's of intermediate/advanced statistics stuff here) It isn't until almost 40 draws that you would fall outside of the normal distribution. On average I'm sure you do get something closer to 16.5%, but there you would need a few hundred data points to see for sure. Even then, a pull rate of anywhere between 10-23% would be reasonable until you near 500 data points. Your experience is just one sliver on the bell curve of everyone's pulls for that token.

Go to a random number generator site, pick any amount of digits from 0-9 (easier to recognize) and let it run 1000+ simulations, you'll see a bunch of strings of the same digit in a row, that's where you are now.

In my case during thick as thieves, I got 3 gold in 4 pulls of regular tokens one day, but I rarely pulled even a 2* lately. It's the law of large numbers, it has nothing to do with luck.

Fantastic answer

SunCrusher

I've pulled 12 Venoms in a row (both colors) before and then following it, 5 Yelenas (both colors), and Juggernauts. That was a part of the crazy-stupid statistics for RNG and pulling Recruit Token covers and no, it wasn't 'broken'.

Then on another day, I pulled Hulk, a handful of 1*s, OBW, a smaller handful of 1*s, Daken 2*, a few 1*s, and then Human Torch 2*. That was also part of the crazy-stupid statistics for RNG pulling Recruit Token covers and no, that wasn't 'broken', either.

To add on to what fakeaseizure said, probability is calculated out to infinity; if you imagine a whole long line of squares counting out to 100 (easier to perhaps visualize), and 10% is 10 of those squares, that selection of 10 squares could be anywhere. They could all be clumped together at the beginning, middle, or end or scattered every which way and it would all still be considered 10% and 'not broken'.

The 1 in 10 calculation method for calculating things like drop/pull rates is flawed for this reason (and this is partly why casinos make so much money).

Hope that made sense.