changes in probability covers?

iorq83

Was made some changes in cover probabilty?
I got plenty of gold tokens during tourments (i think maybe 10) and not even one gold cover from them. Now i got 2x10heropack from season, and from them i got only 2 3stars and one 4star covers from 20tokens...? something was change or only my "good" luck?

john1620b

You're luckier than some. Out of the last four 10-packs I opened, I got a single 3* -- the rest were all 2* characters. So 39 out of 40 for 2*'s: not great.

The odds are just terrible, so try and see them more as ISO tokens than cover tokens.

Unknown

Nothing has changed recently, the odds are just NOT in our favour.

For a single heroic token, if you add up the drop rates they list under the "?" button in game, it comes to:

2.4% chance of a 4-star cover,
14.1% chance of a 3-star cover, and
83.8% chance of a 2-star cover.
The fact that this adds up to 100.3% seems to indicate they probably made a typo somewhere, or the odds go into deeper decimal places than they show.

For a ten pack of heroics, the odds shift - slightly - to:

3% chance of a 4-star cover,
18% chance of a 3-star cover, and
79.4% chance of a 2-star cover.
This adds up to the "yay, math!" of 100.4%

These rates are listed as "per pull", which means it's not averaging out but rather tracking them singly for odds-purposes.

Since you pulled two 3-stars and one 4-star out of two 10 packs, 5% of your covers were 4-star, 10% of your covers were 3-star and 85% of your covers were 2-star. That's pretty much close to with what's listed on the tokens. But then, that's averaging out over the 20 pulls. Oh well.

Math was never my forte, but it sounds like you're doing just fine there.

Unknown

The % they show is almost certainly rounded to the nearest tenth which is why it doesn't always add up to 100%.

Polares

Tokens with these probabilities are just a fraud, their value is soooo low. You need 100 to get something good :S

When you take into account that there are 24 3* with three colors allmost all of them, if you want some cover speficically your odds are allmost zero. Tokens are just for people who want 2* (or for iso).

We need a different kind of token, more expensive but just for 3*, or for some of the 3*, but with a way higher probability. And of course, the old tokens should be cheaper, becuase they are way overpriced.

Unknown

Polares wrote:

Tokens with these probabilities are just a fraud, their value is soooo low. You need 100 to get something good :S

When you take into account that there are 24 3* with three colors allmost all of them, if you want some cover speficically your odds are allmost zero. Tokens are just for people who want 2* (or for iso).

We need a different kind of token, more expensive but just for 3*, or for some of the 3*, but with a way higher probability. And of course, the old tokens should be cheaper, becuase they are way overpriced.

Are you saying the 0.233% chance of actually pulling the specific cover you want is not good enough...

Unknown

Yea this can be frustrating if you have no patience

Unknown

Well, I started writing down my pulls and I got 28 x 3* covers from token rewards (all types, from standard to event-specific) in the last 11 weeks. I'm moderately using HP on shields and buying a 100 HP heroic token a week or so (invariably not getting anything from that one ).
Wonder if spending habits have any influence on token pulls?

eidehua

sorcered wrote:

Well, I started writing down my pulls and I got 28 x 3* covers from token rewards (all types, from standard to event-specific) in the last 11 weeks. I'm moderately using HP on shields and buying a 100 HP heroic token a week or so (invariably not getting anything from that one ).
Wonder if spending habits have any influence on token pulls?

Are you recording here?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =139426167


Also I doubt they would rig the tokens based on anything -- the numbers are there given to us so we can confirm drop rates

Unknown

eidehua wrote:

Are you recording here?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =139426167


Also I doubt they would rig the tokens based on anything -- the numbers are there given to us so we can confirm drop rates

Nah, too cumbersome. I just open the same note on my phone and write the 3* cover and the date.

eidehua

sorcered wrote:

eidehua wrote:

Are you recording here?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =139426167


Also I doubt they would rig the tokens based on anything -- the numbers are there given to us so we can confirm drop rates

Nah, too cumbersome. I just open the same note on my phone and write the 3* cover and the date.

Ahh I see, you're only recording 3* pulls-- that doesn't really show the probabilities though

GrimSkald

I've been recording my pulls for some time now - I've been sorting them by "standard" token, "Heroic or better 1 pack" token, "Heroic or Better 10 pack" token, and "other tokens," since I don't want to set up a seperate sheet for every event like that link. In general, I'm doing about average - I'm presently at (2*/3*/4*) 76.9%/19.2%/3.8% on the Heroic tokens and 79.09%/19.09%/1.82% on my "other" tab. For the 10 packs I'm straight 80%/20%, but I've only gotten the ten packs from the three seasons. This more or less confirms the probabilities they're sending are good.

I grind their numbers every so often - just add up all their probabilities to see what I get. Most PVPs fall into this range - 78.2%/19.8%/2.4% and PVEs are slightly better - in the 78-80% for a 2* range. The most recent events have actually been notably worse - Iso-8 Brotherhood is 82.3%/15.9%/2.3% and Nefarious Foes is 83.6%/13.6%/2.4%

I'd complain and say this is a terrible change, but it is actually a pretty small one. I guess they're tweaking these as they considered the featured characters more desirable.