PSA: 10-pack has a 1/3 chance of having the featured char

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Comments

  • Arogntbastrd
    Arogntbastrd Posts: 1,009 Chairperson of the Boards
    Here were the numbers from the first time they gave out drop rates from an a old post of mine...

    "At 14.29% drop rate with 10 drops your chance of getting no thors is roughly 21.39% (85.71% ^ 10) or 78.61% of getting atleast 1."

    So it went from damn near 80% chance of getting featured hero (after it was no longer guaranteed) to just over 1/3 now, for the people who were wondering how it's evolved over time

    Takethat.gif
  • Twysta
    Twysta Posts: 1,597 Chairperson of the Boards
    AA5_Holdit.png
  • Arogntbastrd
    Arogntbastrd Posts: 1,009 Chairperson of the Boards
    3be.gif

    We can do his all day folks, somebody please stop us! We can't stop ourselves... icon_e_sad.gif
  • Unknown
    Unknown
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  • Spoit
    Spoit Posts: 3,441 Chairperson of the Boards
    Arogntbastrd wrote:
    Here were the numbers from the first time they gave out drop rates from an a old post of mine...

    "At 14.29% drop rate with 10 drops your chance of getting no thors is roughly 21.39% (85.71% ^ 10) or 78.61% of getting atleast 1."

    So it went from damn near 80% chance of getting featured hero (after it was no longer guaranteed) to just over 1/3 now, for the people who were wondering how it's evolved over time

    Takethat.gif
    I thought that it worked out to an average of like 1.4 covers when they first changed to to a chance, instead of guaranteed
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Twysta wrote:
    Great thread.


    NCSTL must feel a bit sheepish now.

    Just not heavily invested in a forum for a game i've stopped playing(thanks true healing!) Dont have anything to add. Not really gonna crunch numbers for a game I've stopped playing so if proven wrong...meh so be it...wouldn't be the first time.
  • Arogntbastrd
    Arogntbastrd Posts: 1,009 Chairperson of the Boards
    Spoit wrote:
    Arogntbastrd wrote:
    Here were the numbers from the first time they gave out drop rates from an a old post of mine...

    "At 14.29% drop rate with 10 drops your chance of getting no thors is roughly 21.39% (85.71% ^ 10) or 78.61% of getting atleast 1."

    So it went from damn near 80% chance of getting featured hero (after it was no longer guaranteed) to just over 1/3 now, for the people who were wondering how it's evolved over time

    Takethat.gif
    I thought that it worked out to an average of like 1.4 covers when they first changed to to a chance, instead of guaranteed


    edgeworth-confident(a).gif
    May haps, this was from the first time they added the little button where you could see the percentages. I don't know what the drop rates were when they first undid the guaranteed covers so it's entirely possible there was something between guaranteed and this
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Great info. It's amazing how much math I've forgotten over the 20 or so years since I last had any sort of math class.
    Question: Would the chance of getting a specific color for a three color character be just 1/3 of that percentage, approx 12%, or is it more complicated than that? I'm guess the latter.

    BTW, I've only ever opened 2 ten packs, the awards from seasons 2 and 3, and have gotten 19 2*s and 1 X-Force Wolverine, so basically 20 2*s. And I thought they were pushing roster diversity...
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Thepenismightier wrote:
    Great info. It's amazing how much math I've forgotten over the 20 or so years since I last had any sort of math class.
    Question: Would the chance of getting a specific color for a three color character be just 1/3 of that percentage, approx 12%, or is it more complicated than that? I'm guess the latter.

    It depends. Given the information we have, I can't really tell you much about rates for individual covers. If it's just a straight-up 1/3 chance once the cover has been determined, then yeah, I think it'd be about 12% for a certain color... But there might be more complex things going on behind the curtain.
  • Arogntbastrd
    Arogntbastrd Posts: 1,009 Chairperson of the Boards
    So assuming colors are evenly distributed it's 1/3 of the drop rate for the cover. For simplicity let's call this individual color drop rate "turkey sandwich"

    So chance of not getting turkey sandwich is 1- turkey sandwich. Let's call this variable corn

    So the chance of buying a ten pack and not getting atleast one of the color you're looking for is corn^10

    Comes out to ~13.74% chance of getting atleast one of a specific color from a 10 pack assuming drop rate for character is 4.4 and 3 colors have an equal chance, so turkey sandwich is (1/3)*4.4
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Arogntbastrd wrote:
    So assuming colors are evenly distributed it's 1/3 of the drop rate for the cover. For simplicity let's call this individual color drop rate "turkey sandwich"

    So chance of not getting turkey sandwich is 1- turkey sandwich. Let's call this variable corn

    So the chance of buying a ten pack and not getting atleast one of the color you're looking for is corn^10

    Comes out to ~13.74% chance of getting atleast one of a specific color from a 10 pack assuming drop rate for character is 4.4 and 3 colors have an equal chance, so turkey sandwich is (1/3)*4.4

    stop trying to do math, someone started a new meme thread which needs you.
  • Arogntbastrd
    Arogntbastrd Posts: 1,009 Chairperson of the Boards
    Math and I are homeboys, how dare you
  • mohio
    mohio Posts: 1,690 Chairperson of the Boards
    Spoit wrote:
    Arogntbastrd wrote:
    Here were the numbers from the first time they gave out drop rates from an a old post of mine...

    "At 14.29% drop rate with 10 drops your chance of getting no thors is roughly 21.39% (85.71% ^ 10) or 78.61% of getting atleast 1."

    So it went from damn near 80% chance of getting featured hero (after it was no longer guaranteed) to just over 1/3 now, for the people who were wondering how it's evolved over time

    Takethat.gif
    I thought that it worked out to an average of like 1.4 covers when they first changed to to a chance, instead of guaranteed
    This will surely get a forehead slap if you read it. 14.29% drop rate, with 10 drops absolutely comes out to an AVERAGE of 1.4 covers (just multiply your .143 chance times 10). However, there is still a 21.4% chance of getting none, as mr. bastrd has kindly math'd out for us.

    That said, wasn't the very first time a cap themed event that had him at like 22% or something? I forget the exact numbers, but I thought it was something around 20%.
  • Arogntbastrd
    Arogntbastrd Posts: 1,009 Chairperson of the Boards
    They did it for a random Thor event. Then it went away for a while. So what you're referring to might have been once it went permanent

    Please, Mr. Bastrd is my father. Or at least I assume. I've never met him... papa?!
  • atomzed
    atomzed Posts: 1,753 Chairperson of the Boards
    mohio wrote:

    That said, wasn't the very first time a cap themed event that had him at like 22% or something? I forget the exact numbers, but I thought it was something around 20%.

    I remember that. Cos I bought the packs then, and thought that it was okay value.

    The super soldier packs have only 1 type of 3*, which is Steve Rogers. And yes it was around 21%. But because you only get one type of cover, you are guaranteed that any golden bling bling gives you a Steve Rogers.

    Compared to the 4% rates now, the 4% looks miniscule.
  • squirrel1120
    squirrel1120 Posts: 492
    I'm missing only a handful of 3* cards now, 5 I think, and all 3 4* toons. (I've tossed IW thrice now thinking how poorly the forum rates her). Anyway, my statistical question is this: what are the chances of getting more than one of the cards I'm missing in a 10 pack? Been trying to figure how many slots I should have open before I commit to that big click.

    0 right? Considering both will only contain 2* cards... heh, no really, rather curious.

    Missing toons are lazy cap, the hood, im40, cmags n lazy thor.

    Never having taken statistics, I doubt my answer would be right even with the formula given...
  • mischiefmaker
    mischiefmaker Posts: 932
    squirrel1120 wrote:
    I'm missing only a handful of 3* cards now, 5 I think, and all 3 4* toons. (I've tossed IW thrice now thinking how poorly the forum rates her). Anyway, my statistical question is this: what are the chances of getting more than one of the cards I'm missing in a 10 pack? Been trying to figure how many slots I should have open before I commit to that big click.
    There's a 0.9% chance to draw each of your five missing 3* characters and a 1.5% chance you draw one of the missing 4*s, for a total of 7.5%.

    Chance you draw at least one missing character: 1-(1-7.5%)^10 = 55%.
    Chance you draw exactly one missing character: .925^9 * .075 * 10 = 37.2%.
    Therefore the chance you draw two or more missing characters is 18%. Of that 18%, there's a roughly 1 in 7 chance that your multiples are of the same character (it's higher than that due to the unequal chances of drawing 4*s, but I'm feeling lazy about calculating exactly what it is), so it's about a 15% chance you'll need at least two roster slots, something like that.
  • squirrel1120
    squirrel1120 Posts: 492
    That is handy info to have. Thanks!

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