The True Stats behind cover purchases

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dreamwanderings
dreamwanderings Posts: 36
edited July 2014 in MPQ Suggestions and Feedback
I've just taken a bit of time to crunch numbers out of the pack info tables (which BTW do not total 100%, but I really hope it's just a side effect of rounded numbers).

(feel free to check my calculations)
The bottom line is that, contrary to what one might believe, one gets about twice LESS chance to get ***/**** covers when buying a large pack than when buying the equivalent number of singles!

Stats for Heroic Standard:
- the 40xpack is worth 11200HP and provides 21% of getting ***/****, therefore an average of 8.4 ***/**** covers for 11200HP.
- spending those 11200HP on singles, you get 112 singles at 16.5% of getting ***/****, therefore an average of 18.48 ***/*** covers for 11200HP (2.2 as more)
- this remains true even if you are aiming for the **** only (0.6 covers with the 40xpack vs 1.344 covers with the 112 singles despite the draw increase from 1.2% to 1.5%)

Stats for PVE Dark Avengers Heroic
- 42 pack is at 15800HP, 22.2% of ***/****, for an average of 9.32 ***/**** covers
- 15800HP is 79 singles with 20.1% of ***/****, for an average of 15.88 ***/**** covers
- chances of getting star character She-Hulk roughly the same (1.85 covers vs 1.82 covers)

Stats for PVP One Man/One Army
- 42 pack is at 15800HP, 21.9% of ***/****, for an average of 9.2 ***/**** covers
- 15800HP is 79 singles with 18.1% of ***/****, for an average of 14.3 ***/**** covers
- here, chances of getting star character Punisher is significantly better (2.56 covers vs 1.82 covers)

So, if your goal is to improve your general *** roster, it seems purchasing packs would actually reduce your odds of doing so.

Comments

  • Unknown
    Unknown
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    The first strange part is that single cover purchase is cheaper than pack-purchase icon_neutral.gif
  • Unknown
    Unknown
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    The "Daily Deal!" on each purchase price signifies that you can only get the reduced price on that item once per day. While you can get 112 Heroic tokens for 11200 Hero Points, it will take you 112 days to do so!
  • dreamwanderings
    dreamwanderings Posts: 36
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    It's a "daily deal"???
    I believe you if you say so, but I never saw that info...
    Is it a translation error (I get just the mention "offer" on the options) and it is mentioned "daily deal" in English?
  • Unknown
    Unknown
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    Yeah. If you buy a heroic token, the price for the next one should go up from 100 HP to 300 HP.
  • jonatslee
    jonatslee Posts: 33 Just Dropped In
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    It is also wrong to assume that since chance of a *** or **** is a certain percentage, it means your chances will improve as you open more tokens.
    In truth, the probability is always the same for every single token you open, and does not guarantee you anything.
    So, just because there's a 21% chance of getting a ***/****, it does not mean you're sure to get 21 if you open 100 tokens.
    You roll the dice on each token, and quite possibly end up with far less than you are expecting.
    I've used up hundreds of tokens, and I am quite sure the chances of a gold pull are far less than 20% (less than 10% even).
  • Unknown
    Unknown
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    jonatslee wrote:
    It is also wrong to assume that since chance of a *** or **** is a certain percentage, it means your chances will improve as you open more tokens.
    In truth, the probability is always the same for every single token you open, and does not guarantee you anything.
    So, just because there's a 21% chance of getting a ***/****, it does not mean you're sure to get 21 if you open 100 tokens.
    You roll the dice on each token, and quite possibly end up with far less than you are expecting.
    I've used up hundreds of tokens, and I am quite sure the chances of a gold pull are far less than 20% (less than 10% even).

    That's the large number theory, and your sole experience is not enough.

    mischiefmaker have a thread on the token probability : http://www.d3pforums.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1227
    For me it is the most scientific way to be donet, the sheet having stats on 35.000 standard tokens : 83.5 % of *, 13,3 % of **, 2,5 % of ***

    I let you discover the results for heroic tokens, that's the mischiefmaker's work, not mine icon_e_biggrin.gif

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