Drop rates.

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Gideon
Gideon Posts: 340 Mover and Shaker
edited April 2017 in MtGPQ General Discussion
Post your drops rates. I can't believe you haven't yet. Other games do and makes their consumers feel better about their purchases because they are more informed. Based on the jewel pack poll it's very clear that mythics are heavily weighted over the masterpieces. Unless your doing something shady and unethical you should post your drop rates.
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  • Astralwind
    Astralwind Posts: 98 Match Maker
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    Without those drop rates, how can we tell between basic, super and premium?
    Basic - normal chance
    Super - higher chance
    Premium - Guaranteed rare, even higher chance

    It's unlikely to see people going for Super in the long run. Why the hell would they even do that for?
    Unless drop rates are stated and consumers like us can perform our own calculations to determine its worth, we'll go for the 'highest chance' possible almost everytime without fail.

    We need something like:
    Basic - 10% chance of uncommon, 3% chance of rare, 1% chance of Mythic
    Super - 15% chance of uncommon, 4% chance of rare, 1.5% chance of Mythic
    Premium - 20% chance of uncommon, 5% chance of rare, 2% chance of Mythic

    And we need something like, opening a premium will boost your chance by X%. Opening a super will boost your chance by 0.5X%. Opening a basic will boost your chance by 0.2X%. This will make people try again when they didn't get it the first time etc. Publish some numbers and let people decide whether it's worthwhile. If it's not worthwhile, then make it worthwhile. Otherwise, you're asking us to gamble with our eyes closed. It's worse than playing in the casino, since in a casino, I know the odds.
  • Dogslaya
    Dogslaya Posts: 7
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    The wording of d3's communication has always been very precise. I wouldn't trust published drop rates. They throw us scraps of information (or disinformation) and leave us to run with it as far and fast as our little legs can carry us.

    They've decreased the dupes? Is it by just giving us less cards in packs? They've never answered that. They just leave us to our speculation and let us assume the worst.

    The super pack has a "high chance" of a rare? What does that even mean? Is there a high chance of a rare in a regular booster pack too and they're the same? The language is vague (likely by intention) and there is no clarification forthcoming. We just assume it's better (and may just be 0.01% bigger).

    When RNG blesses me with a mythic, why do I get the same one 5 times? Is it possible the specific drops within a tier are asymmetric? Depending on your current collection, time of day, and moon cycle is it more likely that you get a dupe? This will never be answered by d3.

    There is no gain for them to publish drop rates if it opens up these questions. My tin foil hat stays firmly on. d3's silence speaks volumes.
  • buscemi
    buscemi Posts: 673 Critical Contributor
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    Why would they? Informed customers would make less mistakes, which is bad for business. I've seen people on the forums assuming the 2 super packs hidden behind a pretty ribbon in a cash offer are actually premium packs, and people on slack assuming that the odds of getting a specific mythic cards and a specific masterpiece card from the Elite packs were the same.

    The endless string of complaints left here on the forums and to the robots of customer support mean nothing when they're making that lovely, lovely money.
  • James13
    James13 Posts: 665 Critical Contributor
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    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIp ... g/viewform

    Obligatory link to data collection form.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    edited March 2017
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    Astralwind wrote:
    Without those drop rates, how can we tell between basic, super and premium?
    The data collected so far (~6700 cards) has been analysed to see if drop rates per card differ depending on pack type, but that theory couldn't be supported from the data. So you can assume that opening a super pack is identical to opening three basic packs, and opening a premium pack is identical to opening five basic packs plus getting a bonus rare.
    Astralwind wrote:
    We need something like:
    Basic - 10% chance of uncommon, 3% chance of rare, 1% chance of Mythic
    Super - 15% chance of uncommon, 4% chance of rare, 1.5% chance of Mythic
    Premium - 20% chance of uncommon, 5% chance of rare, 2% chance of Mythic
    Here you go:

    chance-of-rarity-per-card.png
    The odds above don't depend on pack type.
    The total chance of certain rarities dropping does depend on pack type:
    chance-of-rarity-per-pack-type.png

    You can see from the 2nd table that the chance of rare from a Super pack (46.0%) is indeed "higher" than the chance of a rare from a normal booster (18.6%). But I think d3 advertising the chance as "high" is misleading. (It's likely wording left over from advertising the 20-card Fat Packs, which they forgot to check was still valid).

    *All of these figures assume that drop rates haven't changed over the months the data was collected.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    Even though d3go has not really answered these questions, we can answer all of them to some degree just based on what's been observed. (Science!)
    Dogslaya wrote:
    They've decreased the dupes? Is it by just giving us less cards in packs? They've never answered that. They just leave us to our speculation and let us assume the worst.
    Yes, they've apparently decreased dupes by giving less cards in packs, and via the chance to buy targeted cards in elite packs (which may have been the thing they meant). No evidence has been identified which supports any other interpretation of "reducing the amount of duplicates".
    Dogslaya wrote:
    The super pack has a "high chance" of a rare? What does that even mean? Is there a high chance of a rare in a regular booster pack too and they're the same? The language is vague (likely by intention) and there is no clarification forthcoming. We just assume it's better (and may just be 0.01% bigger).
    This has always apparently meant that the chance of pulling a rare from multiple packs is higher than the chance of pulling a rare from one pack, just by virtue of opening more cards (see tables in previous post). Unfortunately, in the case of a Super Pack, "high chance of rare" appears to be false advertising.
    Dogslaya wrote:
    When RNG blesses me with a mythic, why do I get the same one 5 times? Is it possible the specific drops within a tier are asymmetric? Depending on your current collection, time of day, and moon cycle is it more likely that you get a dupe? This will never be answered by d3.
    By far the most likely explanation is the simplest one; luck of the draw. With totally random drops, some people will get very few dupes, some a typical amount, and some many more than typical. It's the nature of the beast; if it did not happen, we would know that drops were not random. There's no statistical evidence for any other explanation, but other explanations can't be ruled out.
  • Dogslaya
    Dogslaya Posts: 7
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    Thank you, Volrak for your very detailed explanations. You have put obvious care and effort into collecting and analyzing a lot of data. My contention is still that d3 hides behind careful (and sometimes carefully misleading) language.

    There is not just the question of the quantity of each rarity we can pull but also the quality. Even if d3 ever publishes the drop rates they can still skew the dupe rate within each rarity. There have been multiple threads and posts about the nature of randomness but the fact remains the drops may not be equally random. This can't be proven one way or another. With enough data you can say with a level of certainty that such-and-such is how the drops are determined but you never can be totally sure. d3 can always hide behind "that's just the nature of randomness" . Unless they actually publish the code they use , I'll stay convinced they are hiding something. The tin foil hat stays on.
  • khurram
    khurram Posts: 1,078 Chairperson of the Boards
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    The purpose of this thread is to get an official answer from D3go or someone from devs. You may have done your research and we appreciate it but no offense to you @volark, can you stop answering questions that were not really directed at you and wait for someone official to speak for themselve? We have had enough of player speculation already.

    Because i am sure right now they are like "Great, they are asking questions and answering them too. Let them just do that for a while we can just sit and watch them speculate and then ignore the subject completely as always."

    That is if they are even bothering to read this.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    khurram wrote:
    The purpose of this thread is to get an official answer from D3go or someone from devs.
    Fair point.

    To explain my thinking, it seems that the sole purpose of the devs answering these questions would be to inform the player-base. And the fact that these questions keep getting asked tells me that people might not realise just how well-informed we can be even without information from the devs.

    That said, I completely support the call for official answers about drop rates.
  • andrewvanmarle
    andrewvanmarle Posts: 971 Critical Contributor
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    The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game.

    So now we know why we get so m many dupes
  • khurram
    khurram Posts: 1,078 Chairperson of the Boards
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    andrewvanmarle wrote:
    The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game.

    So now we know why we get so m many dupes

    So you are saying that there are 4 rarities among mythics?
  • madwren
    madwren Posts: 2,227 Chairperson of the Boards
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    andrewvanmarle wrote:
    The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game.

    So now we know why we get so m many dupes

    I'd heard that rumor as well. It certainly makes sense.
  • jimilinho_
    jimilinho_ Posts: 292
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    andrewvanmarle wrote:
    The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game.

    So now we know why we get so m many dupes

    This would make sense, probably the same with rares too.
  • gruntface
    gruntface Posts: 161 Tile Toppler
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    I can't see us ever getting answers to this type of request because, why would they?

    For every complaint we make, dozens of people are spending lots of money to acquire the latest planeswalker. Which speaks louder? $$$$ every single time.

    I hope we get answers (d3 counters with Drowner of Hope) but reality is unless NAD carries weight we can forget it.

    I don't want to dictate how people spend their money but recognize as long as people do they make any feedback/improvements virtually impossible for the rest of the player base. And maybe that's the premise of a good p2w system......

    (The spending of cash on a pw is particularly bad because they often land in the vault within weeks for 'free' - a once in a blue moon card makes far more sense in the current model, baral-nerf pending of course).
  • toastie
    toastie Posts: 119 Tile Toppler
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    I just want to point out, since it is relevant to this discussion:

    WotC has been EXTREMELY transparent with their numbers with regards to packs, both physical and digital. We know exactly what the rate of mythics, foils, and masterpieces are. Additionally we know the drop rate per card in treasure chests. This is the sort of transparency we are asking for here, so we can make informed decisions about our purchases.
  • buscemi
    buscemi Posts: 673 Critical Contributor
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    andrewvanmarle wrote:
    The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game.

    Why would they put any code for rarities client side?
  • Zustel1
    Zustel1 Posts: 19 Just Dropped In
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    I've been collecting data from my opened boosters for quite some time and I found the poor drop rate of basic boosters quite interesting.

    droprate.jpg

    Here the complete table for all booster types.

    droprate2.jpg
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    Zustel1 wrote:
    I've been collecting data from my opened boosters for quite some time and I found the poor drop rate of basic boosters quite interesting.
    Thank you for demonstrating how to make an argument from evidence.

    The basic booster figures from Octal's spreadsheet tell a similar story. From ~1400 cards:
    • Mythic: 0.4% (+/- 0.5%)
    • Rare: 2.7% (+/- 1.1%)
    • Uncommon: 17.3% (+/- 2.6%)
    • Common: 79.6% (+/- 2.6%)
    The drop rates for basic boosters are indeed different to packs that can be bought with crystals.
  • andrewvanmarle
    andrewvanmarle Posts: 971 Critical Contributor
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    khurram wrote:
    andrewvanmarle wrote:
    The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game.

    So now we know why we get so m many dupes

    So you are saying that there are 4 rarities among mythics?

    Yes, exactly that....

    And that's why some mythics are so elusive. And why we have skewed chances when buying an elite pack
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    andrewvanmarle wrote:
    khurram wrote:
    andrewvanmarle wrote:
    The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game.

    So now we know why we get so m many dupes

    So you are saying that there are 4 rarities among mythics?

    Yes, exactly that....

    And that's why some mythics are so elusive. And why we have skewed chances when buying an elite pack
    It's an interesting idea, but so far it's in the category of "Obama wire-tapped me"... no proof offered, hard to disprove, and questions abound - such as what possible reason anything to do with drop rates would have to be present in client-side code, whether certain weights, which are indeed present in the code (according to my own friend who shall not be named), may actually be to do with the AI's hand sorting or spell targetting algorithms, and of course whether your friend who shall not be named was playing a practical joke on us all.

    Also like "Obama wire-tapped me", the claim has spurred interest disproportionate to its veracity, including my own curiosity, which has prompted me to start working to gather evidence which can support or debunk it.. but don't hold your breath, as it will take some time.

    If anyone feels like cutting to the chase, a concrete theory about which specific mythics are in what "group" and what the relative drop rates might be would bring results sooner, but that is something I will also not be holding my breath for.

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