Drop rates and dupes

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shteev
shteev Posts: 2,031 Chairperson of the Boards
in MtGPQ General Discussion
I'll just pin this here.



Any time you want to chip in, @Brigby , you go right ahead.
«13

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  • THEMAGICkMAN
    THEMAGICkMAN Posts: 697 Critical Contributor
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    or even better, some actual helpful words from any of the following:
    @LakeStone
    @Cthulhu
    @Hibernum_JC
    @Hibernum_Will
    @Hibernum_Marie
    @Hibernum_Ben
    @Hibernum_KR

    yknow, not a "sorry can't help you, suck it up" reply.
  • Laeuftbeidir
    Laeuftbeidir Posts: 1,841 Chairperson of the Boards
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    It's on Facebook, so it must be true? Well.. Meh.
    But :
    Do you really expect an answer from official side? I'd be open to place a bet on *that's not going to happen *
    The communication Strategie on this forum really makes me want to delete the game.. Maybe we could make a game out of this? Everytime we have something on our mind, that one of the team could answer, we ask and tag them. Everytime they answer, we lose - one in-game purchase. I'm very sure this works well with not. Another. Dime.
  • madwren
    madwren Posts: 2,237 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Laeuftbeidir said:
    It's on Facebook, so it must be true? Well.. Meh.

    He's the one that posted it.
  • Mainloop25
    Mainloop25 Posts: 1,939 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Laeuftbeidir said:
    It's on Facebook, so it must be true? Well.. Meh.
    But :
    Do you really expect an answer from official side? I'd be open to place a bet on *that's not going to happen *
    The communication Strategie on this forum really makes me want to delete the game.. Maybe we could make a game out of this? Everytime we have something on our mind, that one of the team could answer, we ask and tag them. Everytime they answer, we lose - one in-game purchase. I'm very sure this works well with not. Another. Dime.
    Not sure how that makes any sense. You  are essentially  asking us  to pay them to communicate with us. 
  • bk1234
    bk1234 Posts: 2,924 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I'm pretty sure tagging does no good and they have notifications turned off. I feel this feature was adding to placate us. 
  • octal9
    octal9 Posts: 593 Critical Contributor
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    As mentioned on FB, I'd like to see the data that supports this claim...
  • khurram
    khurram Posts: 1,080 Chairperson of the Boards
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    octal9 said:
    As mentioned on FB, I'd like to see the data that supports this claim...
    The devs could come forward and come clean anytime. Discuss this with us.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    octal9 said:
    As mentioned on FB, I'd like to see the data that supports this claim...
    As would I.  In any case, I completely support his goal, which is to get official information about drop rates from the devs.

  • Laeuftbeidir
    Laeuftbeidir Posts: 1,841 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Mainloop25 said:
    Laeuftbeidir said:
    It's on Facebook, so it must be true? Well.. Meh.
    But :
    Do you really expect an answer from official side? I'd be open to place a bet on *that's not going to happen *
    The communication Strategie on this forum really makes me want to delete the game.. Maybe we could make a game out of this? Everytime we have something on our mind, that one of the team could answer, we ask and tag them. Everytime they answer, we lose - one in-game purchase. I'm very sure this works well with not. Another. Dime.
    Not sure how that makes any sense. You  are essentially  asking us  to pay them to communicate with us. 
    Sorry, I see it now : cynism doesn't really translate well in the written form.
    What I wanted to say is: the communication is between d3 and the customers is a good example of how not to communicate. I intended to make an absurd example to point this out.
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
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    People have already stated that they would choose to believe they are lying if they do officially state that it's completely random. 

    I don't know why anyone thinks it would be in their best interest to step in and clarify since it will just stir up a **** storm. 

    Onus is on the accuser to supply evidence, of which none of you have supplied any(some of that mounting evidence would be helpful) . Majincob who famously states he has not converted his cards at all would be a great data point if he's willing to share his collection details. You guys can start from there. 

    While you're on the whole being scientific kick and all. 
  • majincob
    majincob Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    Ohboy said:
    ...
    Majincob who famously states he has not converted his cards at all would be a great data point if he's willing to share his collection details. You guys can start from there. 

    While you're on the whole being scientific kick and all. 
    I wouldn't mind sharing, but it's not going to be a good data source since it would be too difficult to account for all the cards not gotten from standard packs (rewards, 8-hour packs etc.)

    I do have over 260 KLD 5-card packs to open from saving up prizes since KLD release. There will be a video(s) when the exclusives become available if someone wants to track each card. It's still not a significant number to get a tight confidence interval on individual mythic/MP odds though.
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Since the hypothesis being tested is that the unique cards being dropped is skewed, and not drop rates from packs,  it's OK to ignore the source of the rares/mythics at this stage. 

    If you're willing to publish, that would be great either way. To that same end, I'll list down all my Kaladesh drops later, since I last converted in Soi. 
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    majincob said:

    I do have over 260 KLD 5-card packs to open from saving up prizes since KLD release. There will be a video(s) when the exclusives become available if someone wants to track each card.
    I'm looking forward to that!  This volume of data will be gold.

    I heartily encourage anyone else with large stockpiles and any interest in gaining insight into drop rates to follow majincob's lead and record their results from opening their packs.  Letting this amount of data go to waste would be a real shame.

    There are two ways you can save your data:
    1. Record a video like majincob, and post a link
    2. Fill out a column in the "Data - KLD/AER bulk open" sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JUeuf0BcOlNHpt3dA7SQ838ws7AOlWMEz-4AAG2dYrE/edit#gid=696990607
    For anyone who records a video, it's a fair bet that someone out there will be keen enough to get your data that they'll fill a column of the spreadsheet for you.
  • madwren
    madwren Posts: 2,237 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Kudos to those who are willing to put in the time to record/track this stuff. :thumbsup:
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited April 2017
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    My Collection of rares(None from these sets were ever converted to runes)

    KLD:

    Card Rarity Copies
    Wildest Dreams R 1
    Paradoxical Outcome R 3
    Scrapheap Scounger R 8
    Aethersquall Ancient R 6
    Gonti, Lord of Luxury R 7
    Captured by the Consulate R 4
    Cultivator’s Caravan R 7
    Fumigate R 4
    Toolcraft Exemplar R 9
    Confiscation Coup R 2
    Fleetwheel Cruiser R 8
    Longtusk Cub R 2
    MasterTrinketeer R 5
    Skyship Stalker R 4
    Arborback Stomper R 7
    Servant of the Conduit R 4
    Smuggler’s Copter R 7
    Maulfist Doorbuster R 3
    Panharmonicon R 2
    Bomat Courier R 5
    Lost Legacy R 9
    Multiform Wonder R 7
    Ovalchase Daredevil R 2
    Wayward Giant R 2
    Dubious Challenge R 2
    Midnight Oil R 3
    Saheeli’s Artistry R 5
    Cultivator of Blades R 4
    Harnessed Lightning R 5
    Lathnu Hellion R 12
    Refurbish R 3
    Cowl Prowler R 1
    Aetherflux Reservoir R 3
    Authority fo the consuls R 2
    Electrostatic Pummeler R 6
    Underhanded Designs R 10
    Fateful Showdown R 7
    Ghirapur Orrery R 7
    Insidious Will R 5
    Era of Innovation R 6
    Madcap Experiment R 3
    Deadlock Trap R 1
    Eliminate the Competition R 1

    AER:
    Card Rarity Copies
    Consulate Crackdown R 6
    Peacewalker Colossus R 2
    Glint Sleeve Siphoner R 6
    Walking Ballista R 7
    Release the Gremlins R 5
    Freejam Regent R 5
    Heroic Intervention R 1
    Yahenni’s Expertis R 1
    Sram’s Expertise R 1
    Aethersphere Harvester R 2
    Quicksmith Spy R 4
    Whir of Invention R 3
    Baral’s Expertise R 1
    Oath of Ajani R 2
    Battle at the bridge R 1
    Greenbelt Rampager R 4
    Kari Zev’s Expertise R 1
    Solemn Recruit R 2


    Go ahead and use it as evidence to build your case if you want Shteev. Should probably ignore the exclusives and the bonus cards for introducing newbies as they skew the data.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    Ohboy said:

    Should probably ignore the exclusives and the bonus cards
    Speaking of which - I don't suppose anybody has a list of all the cards which were exclusive at some point?  It's surprisingly hard to find for the pre-AER exclusives.
  • THEMAGICkMAN
    THEMAGICkMAN Posts: 697 Critical Contributor
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    I will be saving all my packs on my main from now on until like August at least. Perhaps until the end of the year (won't save AKH though, I'll want those cards) I will probably open them all when I have around 1000 packs total. Wonder if the little red dot with the number thing breaks when you hit 4 digits...
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Volrak said:
    Ohboy said:

    Should probably ignore the exclusives and the bonus cards
    Speaking of which - I don't suppose anybody has a list of all the cards which were exclusive at some point?  It's surprisingly hard to find for the pre-AER exclusives.

    Maybe @brigby can help out in that regard?
  • Dodecapod
    Dodecapod Posts: 96 Match Maker
    edited April 2017
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    Volrak said:
    Ohboy said:

    Should probably ignore the exclusives and the bonus cards
    Speaking of which - I don't suppose anybody has a list of all the cards which were exclusive at some point?  It's surprisingly hard to find for the pre-AER exclusives.
    This isn't a comprehensive list, but these are all of the previous exclusives I can recall offhand (for each set other than Origins, I believe there are at least a few more that I'm forgetting, but I've tried to err on the side of exclusion, so hopefully none of the cards listed below are erroneous):

    Origins - None to the best of my memory

    BFZ     - Omnath (premium), Void Winnower (premium iirc; I'm not 100% certain this was exclusive)
    OGW - Kozilek (premium), Linvala (premium), General Tazri (premium), Reality Smasher (premium), Stone Haven Outfitter (premium), Oath of Nissa (event), Oath of Chandra (event), Oath of Jace (event), Oath of Gideon (event)

    BFZ Block notes - Desolation Twin, Oblivion Sower, and (I think) Ulamog were also offered once each as QB rewards for top finishers (iirc the cutoff was top 10 in each case), so numbers for those cards might be slightly skewed, though some players who attained them via QB are probably no longer active so wouldn't be included in any data collection.  Shrine and a few other cards (Sanctum of Ugin might have been another) were also included in premium offers, but not all were exclusive at the time (loosely analogous to Whir of Invention for the current Tezzeret Deck Starter offer vs. Confiscation Coup for a previous Saheeli Deck Starter offer), so that might lead to some potential confusion and/or slightly skewed results as well.

    SOI - Olivia (premium), Avacyn (premium), Mindwrack Demon (premium), Geralf's Masterpiece (premium), Sage of Ancient Lore (event), Westvale Abbey (not offered), Elusive Tormentor (event), Thalia's Lieutenant (event)
    EMN - Emrakul (premium), Mirrorwing Dragon (premium), Ulrich (premium), Gisa and Geralf (premium), Gisela (premium), Grim Flayer (premium), Thalia (not offered), Voldaren Pariah (event), Emrakul's Evangel (event), Oath of Liliana (event), Spirit of the Hunt (event), Bruna (event), Impetuous Devils (event)

    SOI Block notes - Geier Reach Bandit was a unique case; it was released between SOI and EMN, and although it was never exclusive, it was included in a premium offer for the first week it was available.  Thalia (not to be confused with Thalia's Lieutenant) was originally intended as an event reward, but due to changes in release schedule, she ultimately remained unavailable until KLD.

    KLD - Depala (premium), Demon of Dark Schemes (premium), Aetherstorm Roc (premium), Bristling Hydra (premium), Territorial Gorger (premium), Aetherworks Marvel (event), Dynavolt Tower (event), Fumigate (event), Confiscation Coup (both premium and event), Skyship Stalker (event), Panharmonicon (event), Dubious Challenge (event), Midnight Oil (event), Ghirapur Orrery (referral), Cowl Prowler (referral), Wayward Giant (referral)

    KLD Block Notes - A handful of non-mythic cards were included as non-exclusive premium offers, primarily as Deck Starters; unfortunately, I can't recall what these were aside from Confiscation Coup, but depending on the intended analysis they may wind up influencing certain results.
  • span_argoman
    span_argoman Posts: 751 Critical Contributor
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    @Dodecapod

    BFZ For Sale: Ulamog, Omnath and Void Winnower, Eldrazi Devastator, Shrine of the Forsaken Gods, Angelic Captain
    BFZ QB Prizes: Desolation Twin, Endless One, Oblivion Sower
    BFZ cards added mid-cycle: Hero of Goma Fada, Undergrowth Champion, Defiant Bloodlord, Prism Array, Crumble to Dust, Exert Influence, Akoum Hellkite, Beastcaller Savant, Guul Draz Overseer, Lantern Scout
    BFZ cards unavailable till OGW for reasons I forget (probably were on sale): March from the Tomb, Titan's Presence, Brutal Expulsion, Conduit of Ruin
    There might have been more unavailable.

    OGW prizes add Sphinx of the Final Word to the list.

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