# Same Prize, 4 times in a row.

ApocryphicV
Posts:

**118**Tile Toppler
Just wanted to check if this might be common issue. I've been getting standard cover tokens from progression awards and beating events but every time I go to claim it, I get Black Widows Purple ability over and over again. Right now I am at 4 times. I know the odds are pretty high to get a Black Widow with standard tokens but after I can't beat the odds 4 times? Not even a Bag-Man or even a Juggernaut?

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## Comments

3,554Site AdminCad

There are 70 different covers currently available in the game, 2-3 for each of 27 characters. Any of which are possible to obtain from a standard pack. Now the odds are obviously split up so you're more likely to get the 1 star covers and increasingly less likely to get the more rare tiers, but for this we'll just say you have an equal chance to get any of the 70.

So your odds of pulling a Black Widow Purple cover once are 1 in 70. (1/70 or .015 or 1.5%)

The next time you use a standard token your odds to pull a Black Widow Purple cover are STILL 1 in 70 (1/70 or .015 or 1.5%) because your previous pull has no bearing on this one! But enough teaching...

Your odds of pulling the same cover two times in a row are 1 in 4,900. (that's 1/70 * 1/70 or 0.002%) Using our made up numbers and assuming there's 50,000 players that play every day and use a bunch of tokens every day we can say this probably happens 10 times a day in MPQ. No big deal.

Your odds of pulling the same cover three times in a row are 1 in 343,000. (1/70 * 1/70 * 1/70 or 0.0003%) So again with our made up numbers you can bet on this happening to one lucky player about once a week. Alright! You've got some luck there, Apoc!

Your odds of pulling the same cover

fourtimes in a row are 1 in 24,010,000! (yeah that's 24 million, you get the math by now) So that's going to happen in our fantasy example less than once a year! You hit the jackpot, Apoc! Go buy a lottery ticket!In reality the odds are probably a bit better than these numbers for your particular pull series due to 1 star covers being much more common from the standard pack than 2/3/4. But still, it's 100% possible but very unlikely.

3,441Chairperson of the BoardsYes, but that would make this occurence even more likely. Since he's arguing that this isn't something that would be seen as a statistical anomaly, then the fact that his estimation is conservative only improves his argument.

So, let's say the odds of drawing a one star character is 50%. (I would guess it would be closer to 67%, but we'll go with 50%.) Given 16 different 1* covers, the odds of pulling a particular 1* cover is 3.125% each time. Since the complaint is about the same cover and not a particular cover, the first cover only has to be a 1*. So, 3.125%^3 x 50% = 0.00153%, or 1 in 65,536. That is less than a fifth of the previous estimate, and I think I am still being a little conservative. And if you want to make the calculation for a particular cover 4 times in a row, it comes out to 1 in 1,048,576, which is much less than the previous estimate. (not that I'm putting down the previous estimate)

I think most higher level people at this point just think of standard tokens as 100 or 125 ISO-8. But you can always get that occasional surprise. I pulled a black Hood a couple days ago.

P.S. If my math is wrong please correct it. It has been a while.

1,511The chance of getting a 1 star character far exceeds that of getting a 2, 3, or 4 star...so that's a pretty crucial part for the calculation.

And, yes...try not to get hung up on what comes out of a standard token. Every 1 star character I get from it is just as bad as the other 1 star characters...it's all junk. Just expect to sell it for 100 ISO and anything else is a pleasant surprise.

Clearly you have a problem reading and also have a problem with me for whatever reason. Regardless maybe you should reread the original post

If you read the posts in this thread they are talking about chance, probability, how the game calculates these, does it calculate these correctly. The results from the tokens and from spending HP/ISO on the cover packs is presumably the same so don't get your knickers in a twist about people getting stuff for free - if there was a problem with the cover packs, it would affect cover packs bought with IAP currency too.

I really don't know what your problem is - are you very young? Drunk? High? A troll? Or just argumentative?