Same Prize, 4 times in a row.

ApocryphicVApocryphicV Posts: 118 Tile Toppler
Just wanted to check if this might be common issue. I've been getting standard cover tokens from progression awards and beating events but every time I go to claim it, I get Black Widows Purple ability over and over again. Right now I am at 4 times. I know the odds are pretty high to get a Black Widow with standard tokens but after I can't beat the odds 4 times? Not even a Bag-Man or even a Juggernaut?

Comments

  • pretty standard
  • IceIXIceIX ADMINISTRATORS Posts: 3,554 Site Admin
    Unlikely that this would have happened, but not even close to outside the realm of possibility. And given the number of players, this sort of thing, while statistically unlikely for any given person, happens to someone all the time. That's one of the weird things about statistics.
  • edited November 2013
    Just out of interest, which one is it? The last 4 of my heroic tokens have been modern hawkeye. I understand the statistics and how random works, but that's why I wonder if there is more to this. Assuming there are at least 11 (not including 3 and 4 star) heroes I could get with a heroic token, the chance on ony one of those four tokens of getting a specific card is 1 in 11, but getting the same one four times in a row is about 1 in 14,600. Definitely not impossible, but it sounds like this has happened multiple times. It is enough to make me think that certain heroes may be weighted more heavily, which kind of stinks given the odds already. Now that being said, maybe there is something that says if you already have a specific hero, you are more likely to get another, which is kind of cool, unless you are the one stuck with Hawkeye. I really like this game, but a couple more Hawkeye tokens (puts the odds in the 1 in a million + range, assuming a truly random process)without anything else, and I am probably done. (which, BTW, shouldn't be seen a s "threat or anything", but just an indication of how excited I am when I get a heroic token and what a let down it is to have gotten so many of one character I don't want)

    Cad
  • Haha, for me it's been M.Storm's green Lightning Strike...four times in a row! Pshaw, I say. Pshaw. Ah well, that's 400 ISO, I guess. Must find a bright side somewhere, even if it's not a sincere one. Kind of (not) funny cuz I've been dying for C.Storm's Lightning Strike for about 2 weeks now.
  • edited November 2013
    Just for fun...

    There are 70 different covers currently available in the game, 2-3 for each of 27 characters. Any of which are possible to obtain from a standard pack. Now the odds are obviously split up so you're more likely to get the 1 star covers and increasingly less likely to get the more rare tiers, but for this we'll just say you have an equal chance to get any of the 70.

    So your odds of pulling a Black Widow Purple cover once are 1 in 70. (1/70 or .015 or 1.5%)

    The next time you use a standard token your odds to pull a Black Widow Purple cover are STILL 1 in 70 (1/70 or .015 or 1.5%) because your previous pull has no bearing on this one! But enough teaching...

    Your odds of pulling the same cover two times in a row are 1 in 4,900. (that's 1/70 * 1/70 or 0.002%) Using our made up numbers and assuming there's 50,000 players that play every day and use a bunch of tokens every day we can say this probably happens 10 times a day in MPQ. No big deal.

    Your odds of pulling the same cover three times in a row are 1 in 343,000. (1/70 * 1/70 * 1/70 or 0.0003%) So again with our made up numbers you can bet on this happening to one lucky player about once a week. Alright! You've got some luck there, Apoc!

    Your odds of pulling the same cover four times in a row are 1 in 24,010,000! (yeah that's 24 million, you get the math by now) So that's going to happen in our fantasy example less than once a year! You hit the jackpot, Apoc! Go buy a lottery ticket!


    In reality the odds are probably a bit better than these numbers for your particular pull series due to 1 star covers being much more common from the standard pack than 2/3/4. But still, it's 100% possible but very unlikely.
  • I think this is the first time in the history of the forums that someone is begging for a Bag man cover.

    icon_lol.gif
  • I have an absurd affinity for unstoppable crash (my worst was 6 in a row). I don't even get head butt often.
  • SpoitSpoit Posts: 3,441 Chairperson of the Boards
    adamLmpq wrote:
    Just for fun...

    There are 70 different covers currently available in the game, 2-3 for each of 27 characters. Any of which are possible to obtain from a standard pack. Now the odds are obviously split up so you're more likely to get the 1 star covers and increasingly less likely to get the more rare tiers, but for this we'll just say you have an equal chance to get any of the 70.

    So your odds of pulling a Black Widow Purple cover once are 1 in 70. (1/70 or .015 or 1.5%)

    The next time you use a standard token your odds to pull a Black Widow Purple cover are STILL 1 in 70 (1/70 or .015 or 1.5%) because your previous pull has no bearing on this one! But enough teaching...

    Your odds of pulling the same cover two times in a row are 1 in 4,900. (that's 1/70 * 1/70 or 0.002%) Using our made up numbers and assuming there's 50,000 players that play every day and use a bunch of tokens every day we can say this probably happens 10 times a day in MPQ. No big deal.

    Your odds of pulling the same cover three times in a row are 1 in 343,000. (1/70 * 1/70 * 1/70 or 0.0003%) So again with our made up numbers you can bet on this happening to one lucky player about once a week. Alright! You've got some luck there, Apoc!

    Your odds of pulling the same cover four times in a row are 1 in 24,010,000! (yeah that's 24 million, you get the math by now) So that's going to happen in our fantasy example less than once a year! You hit the jackpot, Apoc! Go buy a lottery ticket!


    In reality the odds are probably a bit better than these numbers for your particular pull series due to 1 star covers being much more common from the standard pack than 2/3/4. But still, it's 100% possible but very unlikely.
    Doesn't it roll the rarity first, so it's just choosing from the 1* covers, instead of all of them?
  • Spoit wrote:
    Doesn't it roll the rarity first, so it's just choosing from the 1* covers, instead of all of them?

    Yes, but that would make this occurence even more likely. Since he's arguing that this isn't something that would be seen as a statistical anomaly, then the fact that his estimation is conservative only improves his argument.

    So, let's say the odds of drawing a one star character is 50%. (I would guess it would be closer to 67%, but we'll go with 50%.) Given 16 different 1* covers, the odds of pulling a particular 1* cover is 3.125% each time. Since the complaint is about the same cover and not a particular cover, the first cover only has to be a 1*. So, 3.125%^3 x 50% = 0.00153%, or 1 in 65,536. That is less than a fifth of the previous estimate, and I think I am still being a little conservative. And if you want to make the calculation for a particular cover 4 times in a row, it comes out to 1 in 1,048,576, which is much less than the previous estimate. (not that I'm putting down the previous estimate)

    I think most higher level people at this point just think of standard tokens as 100 or 125 ISO-8. But you can always get that occasional surprise. I pulled a black Hood a couple days ago.

    P.S. If my math is wrong please correct it. It has been a while.
  • Don't feel so bad. At least those are just tokens. I think I've spent at least 900 HP, maybe 1200 HP, on event packs and never got something I needed out of them. Even anti-venom, where I could use *any* of them except the Captain America covers. Did two pulls, got Cap'n both times. I think I'm pretty much done with that. Just saving HP from now on to upgrade powers directly.
  • NemekNemek Posts: 1,511
    While I didn't actually check your math, I'm glad you used more realistic numbers.

    The chance of getting a 1 star character far exceeds that of getting a 2, 3, or 4 star...so that's a pretty crucial part for the calculation.

    And, yes...try not to get hung up on what comes out of a standard token. Every 1 star character I get from it is just as bad as the other 1 star characters...it's all junk. Just expect to sell it for 100 ISO and anything else is a pleasant surprise.
  • adamLmpq wrote:
    Just for fun...

    There are 70 different covers currently available in the game, 2-3 for each of 27 characters. Any of which are possible to obtain from a standard pack. Now the odds are obviously split up so you're more likely to get the 1 star covers and increasingly less likely to get the more rare tiers, but for this we'll just say you have an equal chance to get any of the 70.

    So your odds of pulling a Black Widow Purple cover once are 1 in 70. (1/70 or .015 or 1.5%)

    The next time you use a standard token your odds to pull a Black Widow Purple cover are STILL 1 in 70 (1/70 or .015 or 1.5%) because your previous pull has no bearing on this one! But enough teaching...

    Your odds of pulling the same cover two times in a row are 1 in 4,900. (that's 1/70 * 1/70 or 0.002%) Using our made up numbers and assuming there's 50,000 players that play every day and use a bunch of tokens every day we can say this probably happens 10 times a day in MPQ. No big deal.

    Your odds of pulling the same cover three times in a row are 1 in 343,000. (1/70 * 1/70 * 1/70 or 0.0003%) So again with our made up numbers you can bet on this happening to one lucky player about once a week. Alright! You've got some luck there, Apoc!

    Your odds of pulling the same cover four times in a row are 1 in 24,010,000! (yeah that's 24 million, you get the math by now) So that's going to happen in our fantasy example less than once a year! You hit the jackpot, Apoc! Go buy a lottery ticket!


    In reality the odds are probably a bit better than these numbers for your particular pull series due to 1 star covers being much more common from the standard pack than 2/3/4. But still, it's 100% possible but very unlikely.
    Oh my God, what's this math stuff? I see * and / and () and icon_e_geek.gif Tee hee.
  • Lol, are we really complaining about free tokens?! Ive seen a lot of complaining over the short time it's forum has been up but this takes the cake lol. Easy solution, make it so you don't get anymore tokens. Then you'll never have to worry about pulling another widow icon_e_smile.gif
  • Badman82 wrote:
    Lol, are we really complaining about free tokens?!
    No. Reread the thread.
  • Humphrey wrote:
    Badman82 wrote:
    Lol, are we really complaining about free tokens?!
    No. Reread the thread.

    Clearly you have a problem reading and also have a problem with me for whatever reason. Regardless maybe you should reread the original post icon_e_wink.gif
  • Badman82 wrote:
    Humphrey wrote:
    Badman82 wrote:
    Lol, are we really complaining about free tokens?!
    No. Reread the thread.

    Clearly you have a problem reading and also have a problem with me for whatever reason. Regardless maybe you should reread the original post icon_e_wink.gif
    Nope, try again.
    If you read the posts in this thread they are talking about chance, probability, how the game calculates these, does it calculate these correctly. The results from the tokens and from spending HP/ISO on the cover packs is presumably the same so don't get your knickers in a twist about people getting stuff for free - if there was a problem with the cover packs, it would affect cover packs bought with IAP currency too.

    I really don't know what your problem is - are you very young? Drunk? High? A troll? Or just argumentative?
  • I am very young and drunk. Apparently I should refrain from posting anymore because I can see that this community has three kinds of people. I will not elaborate on what they are or which category you fall into but thank you for explaining things to me icon_e_smile.gif.
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