How many LTs should I keep in reserve, to cover future 5e releases?

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froggerjohn
froggerjohn Posts: 373 Mover and Shaker
in Roster and Level Help
I recently opened most of my LT hoard, trying to get as many covers as I could, for Storm/Iceman/PX.

Results:
4/1/3 Storm
3/4/3 Iceman
3/1/0 PX

The goal is not to champ these, or any 5stars, in the foreseeable future. But all of these characters are useful for me in unchamped form.

I have 42 LTs left, and really would love to pull more covers, but I don't want to hurt my ability to keep getting at least one cover for each new 5e. Right now, I have twice the "average" number of pulls needed, and maybe that's where I should stop to have a reasonable buffer against bad RNG.

And yes, I definitely know that's not enough to guard against "really bad" RNG, hence the use of 'reasonable', and trying to strike a good balance between potential gains versus protection.

Update: Just as I was posting this, I earned an LT, which turned my Storm into 5/1/3. So I'm now at risk of getting additional black covers for her that would likely never get converted to anything. So while I'd really love to get another green, it may no longer be worth pulling LTs now, even aside from the stockpile issue.

Would still appreciate feedback though.

Comments

  • helix72
    helix72 Posts: 991 Critical Contributor
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    @froggerjohn , the answer is it depends on how many pulls you earn per week and how certain you want to be. But let's start with the base case: assume you earn zero. This at least gives you a worst-case scenario. Let's also assume you will bonus hero only the one 5* you want to get at least one cover for. Let's say the 5* you're going for is our newest one, Carnage, just to put a name to it.

    There are 2 successful outcomes that we are concerned with:
    1) You draw 5* Carnage. Success! Doesn't matter whether you draw a BH or not, you got at least 1 cover. Chance of this is 15% / 3 = 5.0%
    2) You draw a different 5* but draw a bonus hero Carnage. Success! Chance of this is 15% x 2/3 * 5% = 0.5%

    So your chance of success is 5.5%. Now it's a binomial distribution. With 42 LTs, you would have a 90.7% chance to pull at least one 5* Carnage. Just to give you some other break points:

    It only takes 13 pulls to have a 52.1% chance
    If you want to be 75.7% certain, you'll need 25 pulls
    If you're super conservative and want to be 95% certain, you'll need 53 pulls
    If you're ultra conservative and want to be 99% certain, you'll need 81 pulls

    Anyhow, you get the picture. Now just figure in how many pulls you'll earn before the next time you'll want to pull. So if you decide you want to be 95% certain in 4 weeks and you'll earn 4 pulls per week in the meantime, then you can spend 42 + 4 x 4 - 53 = 5 more LTs now.
  • froggerjohn
    froggerjohn Posts: 373 Mover and Shaker
    edited October 2019
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    That's perfect, thanks for all the numbers! 
    I think I can definitely live with 75%, especially since I have 500+ CP as a backup. That gets me in excess of 90% of pulling on day 1.

    I pulled down to 25 left, and got two more PX in the first four pulls (Now 4/2/0), but then no more 5s in the rest. I'll pull everything I earn from here until Carnage hits LTs.

    UPDATE: Earned an LT from the Crash, which turned into a Storm green (one of my primary objectives, now 5/2/3), and a BH Okoye black (4/2/4). Definitely a happy day!

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