Bonus Hero Statistics

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pheregas
pheregas Posts: 1,721 Chairperson of the Boards
in MPQ General Discussion
We all have opinions, but not all of us have statistics.  I've collated data now and again over my close to 6 years playing, but never as exhaustively as this.

I've tracked every single Latest Legend pull for 578 pulls (meaning this data does not include pulls from new release/special stores).  This data also does not include placement/progression/feeder covers.  However, CP and Latest LT's earned from these events/rewards are included as they are from the same Latest store with the same predetermined pull rates.  

In that time:

90 x 5*s  (15.57%)
488 x 4*s.

For 4* Bonus Heroes, I've pulled 27 total Bonus Heroes (5.53% of 4s pulled)
For 5* Bonus Heroes, I've pulled 3 total Bonus Heroes (3.33% of 5s pulled)

It has been 185 total pulls since my last 5* BH.
It has been 43 total pulls since my last 4* BH.

Granted my sample size is not huge, but I thought 500+ was getting closer to something significant.  Maybe we can collate other data from other 500+ record keepers.

I have individual 4*s pulled, but my top 3 pulls are Lockjaw (12), Main Event Hulk (12), and Ant-man (11).

My bottom 3 are Rogue (1), War Machine (1), and Spider-Gwen (1).

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  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,162 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited October 2019
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    I have 658 Latest Legends pulls tracked. 

    Total 5*s drawn:107 (16.26%)
    Total 5* BH (above the 107 organic pulls): 5 (4.6%)
    Total 4* BH: 30 (5.44%)

    I also have 164 Classic pulls tracked (much less useful, but I stopped pulling heavily out of classic shortly after I started tracking pulls)
    Total organic 5* Pulls: 28 (17.07%)
    Total 5* BH: 1 (3.57%)
    Total 4* BH: 10 (6.49%)

    I don't track bonus heroes from other stores, but I feel that I get a statistically significant number of them from the event tokens (pvp/pve) I pull. Not that many out of heroics.
  • Borstock
    Borstock Posts: 2,546 Chairperson of the Boards
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    The OP just tells me that I have nothing to complain about ever. I haven't collected the numbers, but my 5* BH rate is at least triple yours.
  • pheregas
    pheregas Posts: 1,721 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Borstock said:
    The OP just tells me that I have nothing to complain about ever. I haven't collected the numbers, but my 5* BH rate is at least triple yours.
    LOL.  I've had 8 total since 5* BHs were introduced.  My rates have always been atrocious, but I figured I'd get farther with proper data analysis only using properly recorded data.
  • Sm0keyJ0e
    Sm0keyJ0e Posts: 730 Critical Contributor
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    Recently pulled 1250 latests and although I didn't track 4*'s, I know I got 9 5* BH off of 175 5* pulls, which equates to a little over 5%, or the expected rate on those.
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,162 Chairperson of the Boards
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    OJSP said:
    As I understand it, the 5% BH rate covers all 3*s, 4*s, and 5*s combined. Therefore, some people could be lucky that their 5% consists of mainly 5*s while some people could be unlucky because their BHs were mainly obtained from getting 3*s from Standard Tokens.
    Interesting; @Borstock, do you hoard non-legendary tokens generally?
  • jp1
    jp1 Posts: 1,069 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Sm0keyJ0e said:
    Recently pulled 1250 latests and although I didn't track 4*'s, I know I got 9 5* BH off of 175 5* pulls, which equates to a little over 5%, or the expected rate on those.
    1250 pulls? Wow! How long did that take to build up? Also curious how long it took to pull and juggle all the covers. 

    Lastly, if you ever feel like making a video cracking a hoard like that, please let us know. 

    I am only guessing but I would wager my 5* BH total is somewhere in the realm of 10 total. I have finished JJ and BB both with feeders and BH for the most part.
  • Borstock
    Borstock Posts: 2,546 Chairperson of the Boards
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    ThaRoadWarrior said:
    OJSP said:
    As I understand it, the 5% BH rate covers all 3*s, 4*s, and 5*s combined. Therefore, some people could be lucky that their 5% consists of mainly 5*s while some people could be unlucky because their BHs were mainly obtained from getting 3*s from Standard Tokens.
    Interesting; @Borstock, do you hoard non-legendary tokens generally?
    No. I only hoard CPs and LTs.
  • Sm0keyJ0e
    Sm0keyJ0e Posts: 730 Critical Contributor
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    jp1 said:
    Sm0keyJ0e said:
    Recently pulled 1250 latests and although I didn't track 4*'s, I know I got 9 5* BH off of 175 5* pulls, which equates to a little over 5%, or the expected rate on those.
    1250 pulls? Wow! How long did that take to build up? Also curious how long it took to pull and juggle all the covers. 

    Lastly, if you ever feel like making a video cracking a hoard like that, please let us know. 

    I am only guessing but I would wager my 5* BH total is somewhere in the realm of 10 total. I have finished JJ and BB both with feeders and BH for the most part.

    I pulled them in one evening, maybe 1-2hrs total. I purposely didn't apply anything until I was done so I could track how many 5's I got. I would guess it was about a year in the making? I last pulled in latests when Okoye was still in there. So maybe a little over a year. I am one of those hoarders who believes not all 5's are created equally, so I have no interest in chasing the bad ones, like Kingpin or Wasp. Don't want to reward bad character design.
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,295 Chairperson of the Boards
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    As much as these explanations make sense, it feels bad to players (me) who think the bonus rate should be based on tier and not on token.

    That may have been the point of doing it per token, to keep the bonus 5 rate lower than 5% in practice.  Who knows.

    But the fact that it is basically impossible (or very improbable) to get a 5% bonus rate compared to your overall number of 5* covers is, well, it seems very unfair to me when I think most people would rightly assume that the 5% rate means per tier - since you are selecting your bonus character in each tier.

    The way this is structured is very frustrating.  
  • jp1
    jp1 Posts: 1,069 Chairperson of the Boards
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    bluewolf said:
    As much as these explanations make sense, it feels bad to players (me) who think the bonus rate should be based on tier and not on token.

    That may have been the point of doing it per token, to keep the bonus 5 rate lower than 5% in practice.  Who knows.

    But the fact that it is basically impossible (or very improbable) to get a 5% bonus rate compared to your overall number of 5* covers is, well, it seems very unfair to me when I think most people would rightly assume that the 5% rate means per tier - since you are selecting your bonus character in each tier.

    The way this is structured is very frustrating.  
    I agree with this. On the other hand BH is one of the few things I see as a true “bonus” and I don’t get very bent out of shape about them.

    Still, it would be nice to see more than a few in my lifetime.
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,162 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Looking at my pull rates, it's not wildly off from 5% / tier / store.
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,162 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I don't track those, but I also don't pull in them generally. In all of 2019, I've maybe pulled..20 total spread out across a few? Because I pull as I go, I'm never in a position to pull more than 5-8 from any given store, so i don't bother. Outside of earned tokens.
  • DyingLegend
    DyingLegend Posts: 1,192 Chairperson of the Boards
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    i didn't track my pull rates, but it took me about 10 months to get one 5 star bonus hero pull.
  • jp1
    jp1 Posts: 1,069 Chairperson of the Boards
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    DyingLegend said:
    i didn't track my pull rates, but it took me about 10 months to get one 5 star bonus hero pull.
    Unfortunately, the same as my guess without knowing how many pulls you made over the 10 months it doesn’t really tell you much.

    I kind of wish I had tracked my pulls. I certainly could go back and count all my 5* covers but I will never know how many pulls it took to get them.

    That said, I definitely pull more than one in ten months...even though it doesn’t feel like it at times.
  • Monsoon3
    Monsoon3 Posts: 22 Just Dropped In
    edited October 2019
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    I've been keeping data for Latest Legend pulls since the end of January. I've received 77 5* from 442 total pulls for a 17.42% pull rate. So it's nice to be ahead of RNG for the moment.

    Bonus heroes over those pulls is a bit different. I've have received just 14 bonus heroes for those 442 pulls (12 4* and 2 5*). That is a drop rate of 3.16%.

    And while it is a small sample size, I pulled 10 4* out of 10 tries with no bonus on the Fan Favorite store that just ended.

    You win some and you lose some.
  • TPF Alexis
    TPF Alexis Posts: 3,826 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I need to start tracking. I've been wondering how bad my run of luck on Latests has been. 2+ pulls per day, and I haven't seen a 4* or 5* BH hero since last Season. Figure I'm probably going to get one on my first pull after this Shield Training ends, given that I've got Torch at 9 covers right now :/
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,162 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited October 2019
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    I just have a google sheet going with columns for:

    Date | Name | Color | bonus hero | 5*

    I have conditional formatting set up on the color column to put the background to whatever color it is, then on the bonus hero it looks for a 1 and turns bright blue, and on the 5* it also looks for a 1 and turns it purple with white font. this lets me drop a SUM= box at the bottom quickly and see the total in either column. I'm not Excel-savvy enough to find a way to adjust for bonus 5*s automagically, so i generally have to scroll down and parse that out manually, then do the math for threads like this one when they appear. I have a tab for Latest and a tab for Classic.

    It's relatively easy to update from my phone as I pull them.
  • TPF Alexis
    TPF Alexis Posts: 3,826 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Honestly, a pen and a notebook sounds easier to me. Spreadsheets have never been my friends ;)
  • pheregas
    pheregas Posts: 1,721 Chairperson of the Boards
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    TPF Alexis said:
    Honestly, a pen and a notebook sounds easier to me. Spreadsheets have never been my friends ;)
    I keep mine on paper. 5s get a star next to them. 4*s that get a BH get a large BH to the right. 5*s that get a BH also go on the right, but the entire bit of info gets a large box.

    Whenever I get bored at work, I update the results in excel.

    I don’t collate that by date, just by
    number of covers drawn. BHs earner do not go in that list.  Let’s face it, 4* BH are always newest release.

    BH has its own cell and 4s and 5s are separately tracked on different worksheets.

    I’ll try and remember to transfer it to a google doc and share if anyone wants to use the template.

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