# Hoarding Vault Tokens until the even re-runs

IIAlonditeII
Posts:

**83**Match Maker
This may not belong here, but I didn't know where it DOES go.

If I hoard tokens for a vault - say, The Hunt - until the next time that event runs, will the hoarded tokens still sit in the "expired" tokens bin and pull from an imaginary vault that resets after every pull, or will the be applied to the stash of tokens for the new vault?

If I hoard tokens for a vault - say, The Hunt - until the next time that event runs, will the hoarded tokens still sit in the "expired" tokens bin and pull from an imaginary vault that resets after every pull, or will the be applied to the stash of tokens for the new vault?

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## Comments

3,344Chairperson of the Boards83Match Maker3,344Chairperson of the Boards189Tile TopplerEdit: I hoard not for the LT, though it is nice to pull, but to help complete diluted 4*s, and to complete necessary characters for announced SHIELD Training events.

283Mover and ShakerLet's say I earn 10 tokens for a vault each time the event runs.

Option 1: I hoard, wait until the 8th run, then I have a 100% chance to get the one LT.

Option 2: Each event run I draw all those tokens and only hoard what is leftover if I get the LT in fewer than 10 draws. I ran 250 simulations of this (I really should run more to make it more credible, but it gives the picture), and I averaged 1.12 LTs drawing this way. Now, it is true there is a chance you go 0 for 80. But there is also a chance you go 8 for 80.

In the 250 simulations, here were the outcomes:

I got 0 LTs 81 times (32.4%)

I got 1 LT 95 times (38.0%)

I got 2 LTs 49 times (19.6%)

I got 3 LTs 18 times (7.2%)

I got 4 LTs 4 times (1.6%)

I got 5 LTs 2 times, 6 LTs once, and 7 and 8 zero times. I'm sure if I estimated this a million times it would be more than 0, but still a small chance

60Match Maker3,344Chairperson of the Boards83Match Maker283Mover and ShakerI agree with @IIAlonditeII that the volatility is greater, and while you can draw more tokens, you can also draw zero. They (not sure if you're a he or a she) also point out I did not consider that it would not take the full 80 tokens so you would have tokens left over. Unless someone feels like doing the conditional probabilities, I'll set up simulations over a longer range of vaults using 2 different strategies:

Strategy 1: pull up to however many tokens you have each vault, stopping once you get the LT, and applying any overage to the next vault

Strategy 2: wait until you have at least 80 tokens, pull until you get the LT, then stop and wait to pull again until you have at least 80 tokens. Lather, rinse, repeat.