Droprates in packs

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ArielSira
ArielSira Posts: 490 Mover and Shaker
in MtGPQ General Discussion
Just bought a Rav Allegiance premium pack cos I had crystals saved. Not only did it just have the bonus rare (like half the premium packs), 2 of the packs were 5 commons. Something that happens quite a lot with reward boosters too.

Imagine spending actual money (€15) to buy crystals for these packs.

Imagine asking actual money for these.

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  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,611 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Drop rates may not be doubted!!! If you feel there is something wrong with the drop rates, you are the one that is wrong!

    That is my experience when I have raised this subject, so sit back and prepare to be shouted down.
  • ArielSira
    ArielSira Posts: 490 Mover and Shaker
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    Oh I know the droprates are as displayed (aside that 30% actually is 6% per pack) but they're disgustingly bad. I also recall the 5 common packs were at some point gone.

    Asking that much money is just bad (I've raised this before too), you can get a lot better buying real MTG packs. That alone should have made them reconsider prices already.
  • wereotter
    wereotter Posts: 2,064 Chairperson of the Boards
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    ArielSira said:
    Oh I know the droprates are as displayed (aside that 30% actually is 6% per pack) but they're disgustingly bad. I also recall the 5 common packs were at some point gone.

    Asking that much money is just bad (I've raised this before too), you can get a lot better buying real MTG packs. That alone should have made them reconsider prices already.
    The all commons packs are still very much alive and well... I get them pretty often. Also still alive are the packs with multiple copies of the same card in them. My record so far is four of the same common in a pack. 
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    Single packs were prevented from dropping 5 commons from around Dec 2016 until Feb 2018.  Since then, it's happened at the normal rate you'd expect from randomness (once every 60-70 packs).

    It's always been possible to get multiple copies of the same card from a pack; unlike real MtG card packs, there's no special action taken to prevent that.

    (I hope nobody sees this as "shouting down"; given that the answers are known, my assumption is that anyone with an interest in this thread would be interested in knowing them too.)
  • ShaarkBiite
    ShaarkBiite Posts: 39 Just Dropped In
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    It would seem that the probability in getting a duplicate within the same 5 card pack has to be tiny, but yet it happens all the time. Anyone out there do the math? 
  • Tilwin90
    Tilwin90 Posts: 662 Critical Contributor
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    5% duplicate chance in a 200 cards set, naively assuming all cards are evenly distributed regardless of rarity. Looking at 5 boosters this chance gets bumped up to 79%. 
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    Tilwin90 said:
    5% duplicate chance in a 200 cards set, naively assuming all cards are evenly distributed regardless of rarity. Looking at 5 boosters this chance gets bumped up to 79%. 
    Yep.  And considering rarity, dupe rates are higher, since most cards drop as common or uncommon. From simulating opening thousands of RNA packs, around 1 in 13 boosters (7.5%) has a repeated card, and it goes up to 91% for PPs.
  • Tourmaline
    Tourmaline Posts: 25 Just Dropped In
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    I pulled a card pack a few sets ago that gave me 4 copies of the same common in one pack. 😂😂
  • Bil
    Bil Posts: 831 Critical Contributor
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    I recently opened a 5 card booster with 3 cards being the same common ... RNG rules ...
  • ShaarkBiite
    ShaarkBiite Posts: 39 Just Dropped In
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    Thanks @Tilwin90 @Volrak .  It's been a while since I've done that kind of math. I thought it was more like pulling any one card out of a 50 card deck is 1/50 and pulling the same card twice is 1/50 x 1/50, but I didn't remember how to figure in that you have 5 chances. 

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