10 thousand pulls

LilithLilith Posts: 54 Match Maker
So I am hoping this information will be of interest to some.  I've tracked my last 10k token pulls overall (mostly).

Some base information to put this in perspective:
- Total length of time it took to pull:  448 days.  I play Story Mode only, with the rare occasional run at seeds in Versus.
- I am a VIP, and reasonably regular spender, although by no means a whale.
- The stats below do not include any Supports pulled, nor do they count support tokens pulled from vaults.  Given the total investment of time and effort, those numbers I considered insignificant statistically
- If a non-Legendary token was pulled from a vault, I counted it under actual numbers for the relevant token.

So with that covered, here's the numbers for the statistics fiends:

Standard Tokens
Total Pulled - 2693
3* - 73 (73 BH) - 2.71% of total
2* - 385 - 14.3% of total
1* - 2235 - 82.99% of total

Elite Tokens
Total Pulled - 2538
3* - 563 (139 BH) - 22.18% of total
2* - 1975 - 77.82% of total

Heroic Tokens
Total Pulled - 1341
4* - 95 (14 BH) - 7.08% of total
3* - 298 (48 BH) - 22.22% of total
2* - 948 - 70.7% of total

Classic Legendary Tokens
Total Pulled - 251
5* - 40 (1 BH) - 15.93% of total
4* - 211 (11 BH) - 84.07% of total

Latest Legendary Tokens
Total Pulled - 419
5* - 76 (6 BH) - 18.14% of total
4* - 343 (21 BH) - 81.86% of total

Taco Tokens  (I didn't track percentages here)
Total Pulled - 1345
4* - 9
3* - 144
2* - 582
LT - 6
1000 HP - 6
250 HP - 52
10000 ISO - 1
5000 ISO - 8
1500 ISO - 46
1000 ISO - 150
500 ISO - 226
10 Health Packs - 13
5 Health Packs - 103

Event Token (Vault)
Total Pulled - 1134
4* - 67
3* - 389
2* - 669
LT - 9

Even Token (New Release/Non-Vault)
Total Pulled - 279
4* - 15 (1 BH)
3* - 86 (12 BH)
2* - 178

Bonus Hero Percentages
3* - 27.84%
4* - 7.09%
5* - 6.03%
Overall - 4.32%

And those are my numbers!  Feel free to comment or question!  :smile:

Comments

  • bbiglerbbigler Posts: 1,400 Chairperson of the Boards
    I don't think anyone but you has tracked every single pull they ever made in the game.
  • LilithLilith Posts: 54 Match Maker
    I honestly wish I had tracked them all  >.>
    I'm on Day 1148 Daily Resupply, so this only represents the last third (ish) of my pulls.

    I saw a whole lot of folks talking about 5 and 10% Bonus Hero Rates, and at the time, my mind was saying "It's nowhere near that!"  Of course, saying that on the forums without proof invites the usual spate of confirmation bias comments and so forth, so I just started keeping track.

    Once I got going, it actually because really easy.  I only open tokens at the beginning of the day after I clear my DDQ, regardless of what I earn throughout the rest of the day.

    I also want to say that I'm glad I opted for this project, since the other one that has tickled my brain is the cognitive bias that makes my brain believe that the three strongest colours on my chosen team are always the three least populated colours on an opening match board.  Tracking that one would be more than a little awkward.
  • Siv75Siv75 Posts: 4 Just Dropped In
    Awesome info. The higher the sample pool, the more accurate the percentages. Thank you for doing this, benefits all of us. 
  • LilithLilith Posts: 54 Match Maker
    Update time.

    It has taken me another 115 days to pull another 2500 Tokens.  I'd already got the Excel working, so I've just continued from the last time.  I have done some minor maths to keep things reasonably relevant.

    Of significant note:  My Bonus Hero percentage (which was why I was tracking this in the first place) has actually dropped, and become worse overall.

    Once again... the numbers:

    Standard Tokens
    Total Pulled (First 10k) - 2693
    3* - 73 (73 BH) - 2.71% of total
    2* - 385 - 14.3% of total
    1* - 2235 - 82.99% of total 

    (First 2500 post 10k) – 592
    3* - 19 (19 BH)
    2* - 87
    1* - 486

    (12500 Totals) – 3285
    3* - 92 (92 BH)
    2* - 472
    1* - 2721

    Elite Tokens
    Total Pulled (First 10k) - 2538
    3* - 563 (139 BH) - 22.18% of total
    2* - 1975 - 77.82% of total

    (First 2500 post 10k) – 589
    3* - 140 (20 BH)
    2* - 449

    (12500 Totals) – 3127
    3* - 703 (159 BH)
    2* - 2424

    Heroic Tokens
    Total Pulled (First 10k) - 1341
    4* - 95 (14 BH) - 7.08% of total
    3* - 298 (48 BH) - 22.22% of total
    2* - 948 - 70.7% of total

    (First 2500 post 10k) – 288
    4* - 23 (6 BH)
    3* - 68 (10 BH)
    2* - 199

    (12500 Totals) – 1629
    4* - 118 (20 BH)
    3* - 364 (58 BH)
    2* - 1147

    Classic Legendary Tokens
    Total Pulled (First 10k) - 251
    5* - 40 (1 BH) - 15.93% of total
    4* - 211 (11 BH) - 84.07% of total

    (First 2500 post 10k) – 36
    5* - 5 (1 BH)
    4* - 31 (2 BH)

    (12500 Totals) – 287
    5* - 45 (2 BH)
    4* - 242 (13 BH)

    Latest Legendary Tokens
    Total Pulled (First 10k) - 419
    5* - 76 (6 BH) - 18.14% of total
    4* - 343 (21 BH) - 81.86% of total

    (First 2500 post 10k) – 168
    5* - 25 (1 BH)
    4* - 143 (5 BH)

    (12500 Totals) – 587
    5* - 101 (7 BH)
    4* - 486 (26 BH)

    Taco Tokens  (I didn't track percentages here)
    Total Pulled (First 10k) - 1345
    4* - 9
    3* - 144
    2* - 582
    LT - 6
    1000 HP - 6
    250 HP - 52
    10000 ISO - 1
    5000 ISO - 8
    1500 ISO - 46
    1000 ISO - 150
    500 ISO - 226
    10 Health Packs - 13
    5 Health Packs – 103

    (First 2500 post 10k) – 345
    4* - 1
    3* - 36
    2* - 156
    LT – 0
    1000 HP – 2
    250 HP – 14
    10000 ISO – 2
    5000 ISO – 2
    1500 ISO – 8
    1000 ISO – 29
    500 ISO – 68
    10 Health Packs – 5
    5 Health Packs – 22

    (12500 Totals) – 1690
    4* - 10
    3* - 180
    2* - 738
    LT – 6
    1000 HP – 8
    250 HP – 66
    10000 ISO – 3
    5000 ISO – 10
    1500 ISO – 54
    1000 ISO – 179
    500 ISO – 294
    10 Health Packs – 18
    5 Health Packs – 125

    Event Token (Vault)
    Total Pulled (First 10k) - 1134
    4* - 67
    3* - 389
    2* - 669
    LT – 9

    (First 2500 post 10k) – 439
    4* - 39
    3* - 123
    2* - 267
    LT – 10

    (12500 Totals) – 1573
    4* - 106
    3* - 512
    2* - 936
    LT - 19

    Event Token (New Release/Non-Vault)
    Total Pulled (First 10k) - 279
    4* - 15 (1 BH)
    3* - 86 (12 BH)
    2* - 178

    (First 2500 post 10k) – 34
    4* - 4 (1 BH)
    3* - 9 (0 BH)
    2* - 31

    (12500 Totals) – 323
    4* - 19 (2 BH)
    3* - 95 (12 BH)
    2* - 209

    Bonus Hero Percentages
    3* - 27.84% > 26.67% (-1.17%)
    4* - 7.09% > 6.97% (-0.12%)
    5* - 6.03% > 6.16% (+0.13%)
    Overall - 4.32% > 4.22% (-0.10%)

    As before, posted for posterity and all manner of tracking purposes.  Feel free to comment some more if you like  :)
  • HistamielHistamiel Posts: 145 Tile Toppler
    edited 3 January 2019, 19:55
    Today, I have reached 10 000 non event token pulls. I unfortunately didn't keep track of bonus hero. with CP, I only pull classic. So the numbers are the following.

    Standard tokens : 4856
    * : 4129 (85.029%)
    ** : 619 (12.747%)
    *** : 108 (2.224%)

    Elite tokens : 3338
    ** : 2502 (74.955%)
    *** : 836 (25.045%)

    Heroic tokens : 1063

    ** : 722 (67.921%)
    *** : 273 (25.682%)
    **** : 68 (6.397%)

    Classic token (20 CP) : 472
    **** : 391 (82.839%)
    ***** : 81 (17.161%)

    Latest tokens : 271

    **** : 230 (84.871%)
    ***** : 41 (15.129%)
  • tupacboytupacboy Posts: 35 Just Dropped In
    thanks guys for this!   

    i just opened all my heroics... just started 4 star land.... pulled about 800... ended up with 1 cover short on covering carol but have 3 saved covers... so a little bad RNG but def could be worse... will cover her with insider cover I just got (hopefully comes in a month)... i'll hit a year this month on this game =)

    man 4* land seems crazy... basically 80ish characters... x 13 covers needed for each = 1040... heroics give roughly 7% so you need roughly 35k pulls with perfect spread give or take to cover all.... oyi

    i'm a little over 170 LL pulls hoarded (with ll and cp).... is it better to just hoard for roughly another 8-10 months to get about 350 pulls and hope to get 3 - 5* champs before getting 3 -4* champs?

    I've been hoarding event tokens because i didn't have the hp to open anyways... is there a list of which events actually repeat?  i just opened the 5th anni vault cause i figured it'll never come back...

    any help / insight is appreciated.
  • tupacboytupacboy Posts: 35 Just Dropped In
    Meant 15k pulls. 
  • KGBKGB Posts: 788 Critical Contributor
    tupacboy said:
    thanks guys for this!   

    i just opened all my heroics... just started 4 star land.... pulled about 800... ended up with 1 cover short on covering carol but have 3 saved covers... so a little bad RNG but def could be worse... will cover her with insider cover I just got (hopefully comes in a month)... i'll hit a year this month on this game =)

    man 4* land seems crazy... basically 80ish characters... x 13 covers needed for each = 1040... heroics give roughly 7% so you need roughly 35k pulls with perfect spread give or take to cover all.... oyi

    i'm a little over 170 LL pulls hoarded (with ll and cp).... is it better to just hoard for roughly another 8-10 months to get about 350 pulls and hope to get 3 - 5* champs before getting 3 -4* champs?

    I've been hoarding event tokens because i didn't have the hp to open anyways... is there a list of which events actually repeat?  i just opened the 5th anni vault cause i figured it'll never come back...

    any help / insight is appreciated.

    You are doing the right thing by hoarding LT's if you don't have HP to roster the characters you get. Once you get enough for a roster slot you can open tokens until you get a 4 or 5* you don't have rostered yet. But you already figured that out.

    As far as events go, I assume you are asking about PvE events that have vaults. The rule is that every normal PvE event (Deadpool vs MPQ, Meet Rocket and Groot, ISO 8 Brotherhood, Webbed Wonder etc) gets repeated infinitely. Each time it repeats it uses the same vault as the last run so if you save tokens then you will eventually have enough to clear the vault.

    HOWEVER, PvE events that are run for new character releases come with a one time only vault. For example in the just released Talos PvE there was a unique vault called 'Talos and ...'.  That's a one time only vault that will never be run again so you can open those immediately just like the 5 year anniversary vault which is also unique.

    As far as number of heroic tokens need, it will be far less. You get 1 4* cover in every PvE event from progression so you are earning 1-2 covers a week from that. There will also be 4* feeders from your 3* champs (you get 1 really early on in the champ levels and the other 2 take much longer). Plus you'll get some from Shield Resupply (typically one ever 3 weeks or so) and some from vaults, Taco Tokens etc.

    KGB
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